Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.93).
Deterministic profile computed from 155 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
The read
The record is strongest at Ffos Las (10.3%, n=39), clear of the yard's 7.1% baseline. The yard also reads well in Chase races (12.1%, n=58). The record reads poorly off a 15-30-day break — 4.1% over 49 runners, 3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.69 across 90 runners (4.4% strike, −62.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Gardiners Hill (IRE) — 8 wins from 36 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.7%−3.4
n=27 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −20.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.1
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.1
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −1.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.8%−2.3
n=42 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −18.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Sean Bowen16.7% vs 7.1% · n=42
With a new jockey booking1.9% vs 7.1% · n=52
In Chase races12.1% vs 7.1% · n=58
In Hurdle races4.4% vs 7.1% · n=90
At Ffos Las10.3% vs 7.1% · n=39
Off a 15-30-day break4.1% vs 7.1% · n=49
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle9044.4%−62.50
Chase58712.1%−8.25
NH Flat700%−7.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good9877.1%−64.25
Good to Soft2627.7%−6.50
Heavy1417.1%+3.00
Soft1417.1%−7.00
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Ffos Las39410.3%−3.50
Newton Abbot3339.1%−9.50
Worcester2700%−27.00
Stratford10110%−4.50
Hereford900%−9.00
Bangor-on-Dee500%−5.00
Southwell400%−4.00
Ludlow400%−4.00
Chepstow400%−4.00
Fontwell4125%+2.50
Market Rasen3133.3%+1.00
Newcastle200%−2.00
Fakenham2150%+0.25
Warwick200%−2.00
Uttoxeter200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 510998.3%−39.75
Class 44224.8%−34.00
Class 3400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6350%1.84+4.25
2nd–3rd fav2627.7%0.46−16.00
4th–6th fav52611.5%1.53+5.00
7th+ in betting7100%0.00−71.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f5135.9%−27.50
1m5f – 2m4424.5%−33.00
2m5f – 3m40410%−6.00
Over 3m20210%−11.25
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202228310.7%−13.00
20232800%−28.00
20244124.9%−21.50
202533412.1%+3.00
20262528%−18.25
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps126118.7%−48.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners6446.3%−43.50
5-7 runners40512.5%+1.50
11-13 runners3113.2%−18.00
14-16 runners1500%−15.00
2-4 runners4125%−1.75
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 22 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 22 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Peter Fahey (2); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard, most often for Jake Thomas Coulson (2); 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
08033001401301020
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
109
Archived wins
£724k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 14 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Gone Platinum (IRE) — Siemens Gamesa 'Summer Plate Trial' Handicap Chase Market Rasen · Jun 2019 · Class 3
£12,996
Dream Bolt (IRE) — Technicair Airconditioning Handicap Chase Stratford · Jun 2017 · Class 2
£11,680
Dream Bolt (IRE) — Stables Business Park Handicap Chase Taunton · Dec 2017 · Class 3
Progeny have won 8.8% of 1,022 runs since 2008 (115 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.8% from 145.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,162 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,162 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 24 January 2005 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is David Rees's strike rate?
David Rees has won 11 of 155 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Rees do best at?
Ffos Las by strike rate: 4 wins from 39 runners (10.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is David Rees in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David Rees's Fair A/E?
0.93, from 155 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
David Rees·SR 7.1%·A/E 0.93
KTB
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