What is Jay Tidball's strike rate?

Jay Tidball has won 39 of 310 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.6% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jay Tidball do best at?

Ludlow by strike rate: 5 wins from 30 rides (16.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Jay Tidball ride most for?

Alastair Ralph, with 119 rides since 2022 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (12.6%).

Is Jay Tidball in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Jay Tidball's Fair A/E?

1.10, from 309 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Jay Tidball

310 rides in the last 5 seasons · 133 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 4 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2022

39–310

Wins / Runs

12.6%

Strike rate

n=310

87 (28%)

Placed

1.10

Fair A/E

n=309 · 0.96 incl. margin

−60.26

£1 level stake

n=310 at SP · −19.4%

£520k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.10). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 29% (42 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 310 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Alastair Ralph: 12.6% from 119 LTO winners: 28.6% Claiming: 12.8%

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 28.6% (n=42, Fair A/E 1.22), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 0% (n=36, Fair A/E 0.00). Alastair Ralph supplies 38% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.6%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Chase races (21.3%, n=80) and on Good going (19.8%, n=126). The record reads poorly over 2m5f – 3m — 5.6% over 71 rides, 7pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Magical Maggie (GB) — 5 wins from 11 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.2%−2.4

n=128 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −16.31

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

28.6%+16.0

n=42 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +3.96

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.5%−4.1

n=82 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −18.75

When favourite

34.5%

n=29 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −6.67

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

12.8%+0.2

n=289 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −61.76

Big fields · 14+ runners

0%−12.6

n=36 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −36.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−12.6

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 28.6% vs 12.6% · n=42

In Chase races 21.3% vs 12.6% · n=80

With Paul Nicholls 21.3% vs 12.6% · n=80

On Good going 19.8% vs 12.6% · n=126

Over 2m5f – 3m 5.6% vs 12.6% · n=71

On Good to Soft going 8% vs 12.6% · n=112

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 204 19 9.3% −79.12

Chase 80 17 21.3% +25.53

NH Flat 26 3 11.5% −6.67

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 126 25 19.8% +22.24

Good to Soft 112 9 8% −34.25

Soft 52 5 9.6% −28.25

Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00

Good to Firm 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ludlow 30 5 16.7% −1.25

Uttoxeter 25 1 4% −21.00

Bangor-on-Dee 17 2 11.8% −7.17

Hereford 17 1 5.9% −13.00

Newton Abbot 15 7 46.7% +11.52

Chepstow 14 2 14.3% +14.00

Fontwell 14 3 21.4% +22.50

Plumpton 14 4 28.6% +4.06

Warwick 13 2 15.4% +0.50

Worcester 13 1 7.7% −8.67

Stratford 12 1 8.3% −6.50

Newbury 12 0 0% −12.00

Wincanton 12 0 0% −12.00

Fakenham 12 1 8.3% −10.00

Taunton 11 0 0% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 123 16 13% −6.36

Class 5 112 9 8% −67.06

Class 3 47 8 17% −0.09

Class 2 23 6 26.1% +18.25

Class 1 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 30 10 33.3% 0.98 −7.67

2nd–3rd fav 76 14 18.4% 1.00 −7.09

4th–6th fav 96 13 13.5% 1.66 +19.50

7th+ in betting 108 2 1.9% 0.61 −65.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.5% completed · 284 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 80 80% 1 2 13 0 0

Hurdle 204 86.3% 3 3 21 1 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Churchman (GB) 13 0 4 16 Apr 26

Billingsley (IRE) 12 2 6 15 Dec 23

Magical Maggie (GB) 11 5 6 15 Mar 24

Glimpse Of Gold (GB) 10 1 3 4 Jun 23

Centara (IRE) 9 5 5 28 Oct 26

Thankyourluckystar (GB) 9 1 3 20 Apr 24

Le Tueur (IRE) 7 1 3 21 Nov 23

Scherbobalob (GB) 7 1 1 26 Oct 23

Tap Tap Boom (GB) 7 2 2 25 Mar 23

Midnight Ginger (GB) 6 0 1 29 Jun 25

It's A Breeze (IRE) 5 0 1 24 Apr 26

Byzantium (FR) 5 2 2 19 Mar 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 133 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 2

Only 2 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

3116181731176099811

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardAlastair Ralph

38% of all rides
12.6% SR · A/E 1.09

TrainerRWSR£1

Alastair Ralph 119 15 12.6% −26.15

Paul Nicholls 80 17 21.3% +5.89

Sarah Humphrey 30 2 6.7% −22.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

Archived wins

£539k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 14 wins

Sans Bruit (FR) — BetGoodwin Sussex Champion Chase Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Plumpton · Apr 2025 · Class 2

£52,810

Twinjets (IRE) — Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Ayr · Apr 2026 · Class 2

£25,720

Toothless (FR) — Fitzdares Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Windsor · Jan 2026 · Class 3

£15,843

Notable horses

Magical Maggie (GB) Centara (IRE) Billingsley (IRE) Tap Tap Boom (GB) Byzantium (FR) Toothless (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dunaden (FR) 4.2% · 1–24

Progeny have won 9.7% of 631 runs since 2018 (69 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 15.7% from 102.

Passing Glance (GB) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,555 runs since 2008 (293 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 110. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.

Flemensfirth (USA) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,285 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Millenary (GB) 16.7% · 2–12

Progeny have won 9.7% of 1,413 runs since 2011 (120 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 233.

Geordieland (FR) 45.5% · 5–11

Progeny have won 11.9% of 715 runs since 2016 (71 horses).

Sageburg (IRE) 45.5% · 5–11

Progeny have won 10% of 3,486 runs since 2012 (416 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.7% from 295. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.2% from 355.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 346 · newest first

The latest 50 of 346 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 14 January 2021 to 29 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Toothless (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Dai Walters Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good · 6 ran 1st 10/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Centara (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Persimmon Homes Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 9/4F

15 Oct 26 Fontwell Inca De Lafayette (FR)T: Paul Nicholls BETTING.BET New Betting Sites Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 2nd 7/2

24 Apr 26 Fontwell It's A Breeze (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls A.W. Jefferys (Southampton) Ltd Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 12 ran F 8/1

23 Apr 26 Perth A King Of Magic (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Download The Free Racing TV App Now Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 1st 11/4F

22 Apr 26 Ludlow Whiting Ash (GB)T: Alastair Ralph Powell & Company Construction Agricultural Buildings Mares' Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 6th 28/1

19 Apr 26 Stratford Bond Broker (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Geely Leamington Spa Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 2/1

17 Apr 26 Ayr Twinjets (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20.5f · Soft · 9 ran 1st 6/1

16 Apr 26 Hereford Churchman (GB)T: Alastair Ralph Acre Accountancy Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 4/1

11 Apr 26 Chepstow Cornish Storm (GB)T: Zoe Hawkins Tiptop Clean Convenience Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 12/1

10 Apr 26 Aintree Afadil (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Debenhams Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys/Amateur Riders) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 21 ran 5th 40/1

06 Apr 26 Plumpton Largy Poet (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls BetGoodwin Sussex National Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 28.5f · Good · 10 ran PU 12/1

06 Apr 26 Plumpton Matterhorn (FR)T: Paul Nicholls BetGoodwin Sussex Champion Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 17f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 5/1

05 Apr 26 Plumpton Inca De Lafayette (FR)T: Paul Nicholls BetGoodwin Top Online Bookie Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 1st 13/8F

04 Apr 26 Newton Abbot Tahmuras (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Happy 45th Birthday Andy Hurtley Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 21f · Good · 6 ran PU 7/1

01 Apr 26 Wincanton It's A Breeze (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Visit Bridles Care Home Wincanton Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 8/1

25 Mar 26 Hereford Mac J (GB)T: David Rees Richard Layton Charity Day 16th April NH Flat Race (Amateurs/Conditionals) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 4th 50/1

21 Mar 26 Newbury Twinjets (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls BetVictor Home Of The Saturday Superboost Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 5/1

19 Mar 26 Ludlow Byzantium (FR)T: Paul Nicholls GC Rickards Ltd Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Good · 8 ran 4th 13/2

14 Mar 26 Fontwell Junior Des Mottes (FR)T: Nick Scholfield tigerbet.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Soft · 5 ran 2nd 8/11F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 28 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 28 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Jay Tidball's strike rate?: Jay Tidball has won 39 of 310 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.6% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jay Tidball do best at?: Ludlow by strike rate: 5 wins from 30 rides (16.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Jay Tidball ride most for?: Alastair Ralph, with 119 rides since 2022 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (12.6%).
Is Jay Tidball in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Jay Tidball's Fair A/E?: 1.10, from 309 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.