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Trainer profile

David M O'Brien

266 runners in the last 5 seasons · 30 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago 99% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
13–266
Wins / Runs
4.9%
Strike rate
n=266
49 (18%)
Placed
0.75
Fair A/E
n=266 · 0.61 incl. margin
−148.92
£1 level stake
n=266 at SP · −56.0%
£234k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.75). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 7% off breaks of two months or more (43 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 266 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7% Sean Flanagan: 5.6% from 108
The read

Sean Flanagan rides 41% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.6%, A/E 0.74). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (7.9%, n=38). The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 0.34 across 91 runners (2.2% strike, −77.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the E.B.F. T.a. Morris Memorial Mares Chase at Clonmel (Nov 2013, £22,750). The stable star of the record: Minx Tiara (IRE) — 7 wins from 46 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7%+2.1
n=43 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −30.42
New recruits · first run for the yard
100%+95.1
n=1 · A/E 4.86 · £1 +3.33
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.9
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.9
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
20%+15.1
n=5 · A/E 4.96 · £1 +18.00
When favourite
20%
n=10 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −4.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.9%+0.0
n=82 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −33.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.1%+2.2
n=14 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −9.67

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break 2.2% vs 4.9% · n=91
On Soft going 2.3% vs 4.9% · n=88
On Good to Soft going 7.8% vs 4.9% · n=51
Off a 31-60-day break 7.7% vs 4.9% · n=52
Off a 8-14-day break 7.9% vs 4.9% · n=38
At Tramore 7.1% vs 4.9% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 150 8 5.3% −77.30
Chase 82 4 4.9% −42.12
NH Flat 31 1 3.2% −26.50
Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 88 6 6.8% −10.75
Soft 88 2 2.3% −77.38
Good to Soft 51 4 7.8% −27.79
Heavy 39 1 2.6% −33.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Tramore 56 4 7.1% −16.38
Clonmel 19 1 5.3% −14.50
Wexford 17 2 11.8% −5.00
Punchestown 16 0 0% −16.00
Limerick 16 2 12.5% −5.12
Cork 13 0 0% −13.00
Thurles 13 0 0% −13.00
Kilbeggan 12 1 8.3% −8.25
Killarney 12 1 8.3% −7.67
Downpatrick 12 1 8.3% +22.00
Ballinrobe 11 0 0% −11.00
Gowran Park 9 0 0% −9.00
Tipperary 9 0 0% −9.00
Fairyhouse 7 0 0% −7.00
Roscommon 7 0 0% −7.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 14 1 7.1% −9.67

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 2 16.7% 0.64 −6.50
2nd–3rd fav 34 7 20.6% 1.45 +4.58
4th–6th fav 80 2 2.5% 0.36 −64.00
7th+ in betting 140 2 1.4% 0.53 −83.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
87.1% completed · 232 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 82 82.9% 1 2 11 0 0
Hurdle 150 89.3% 0 0 16 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Roman Parish (IRE) 37 0 8 15 Jun 26
Minx Tiara (IRE) 23 3 9 31 Jul 24
Set The Tone (IRE) 22 1 4 17 Oct 26
Mic Drop (IRE) 21 3 9 11 Oct 26
Bossing It (IRE) 17 1 4 4 Oct 26
Elegant Dan (IRE) 15 1 2 30 Aug 24
Roxhill Roise (IRE)then Ciaran Murphy 14 2 3 29 Jan 26
Grinn (IRE)from J S Bolger · then David Rees 14 0 1 3 Jun 23
Mollys Dolly (IRE) 12 0 0 2 Jul 26
Double Windsor (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast 12 0 1 22 Apr 24
Quirt Evans (IRE)then Mark Fahey 11 0 0 6 Jul 23
Cusp Of Carabelli (IRE) 10 0 0 3 Jun 23
All 30 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 30 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 27 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard, most often for Neil Mulholland (2); 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00954177004130
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderSean Flanagan
41% of all rides
5.6% SR · A/E 0.74
RiderRWSR£1
Sean Flanagan 108 6 5.6% −76.17
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
59
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£877k
Prize money
2021
Best season · 8 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ballinahow Lady (IRE) — E.B.F. T.a. Morris Memorial Mares Chase (grade 3) Clonmel · Nov 2013 · Grade 3
£22,750
Minx Tiara (IRE) — Killarney Towers Hotel & Leisure Centre Mares Hurdle (Listed) Killarney · May 2024 · Listed
£15,340
Ballinahow Lady (IRE) — Miceal Fitzgibon Memorial E.B.F. Mares Novice Chase Thurles · Feb 2013
£14,625
Notable horses
Minx Tiara (IRE) Double Windsor (IRE) Cusp Of Carabelli (IRE) Ballinahow Lady (IRE) Icelip (IRE) Is Herself About (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Parish Hall (IRE) 0% · 0–38
Progeny have won 5.4% of 259 runs since 2008 (32 horses).
Getaway (GER) 9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,913 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
Doyen (IRE) 11.5% · 3–26
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,349 runs since 2008 (605 horses).
Dansant (GB) 4.3% · 1–23
Progeny have won 7.9% of 541 runs since 2008 (64 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.9% from 109.
Vocalised (USA) 4.5% · 1–22
Progeny have won 6.7% of 2,031 runs since 2008 (172 horses).
Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 14.3% · 3–21
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,811 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,050 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,050 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 January 2005 to 18 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) French Adventure (FR)J: Josh Williamson PwC Mares Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 4th 50/1
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div II)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 12th 20/1
11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Mic Drop (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Co-Op Superstores Handicap Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 7/2
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Bossing It (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Gortnavogue Ltd. T/A Seamus Weldon Handicap Hurdle17f · Good · 16 ran 12th 25/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) French Adventure (FR)J: Josh Williamson Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 10th 80/1
30 Sep 26 Sligo (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Brenda Anderson Memorial Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 15 ran 7th 12/1
30 Sep 26 Sligo (IRE) Mic Drop (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Eddie McAllister Memorial Novice Handicap Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 11/2
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Bossing It (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Steeplechase17f · Yielding · 16 ran UR 14/1
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Mike O'Connor Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Steeplechase23f · Yielding · 16 ran 11th 15/2
31 Aug 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Tolka Row (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan AJC Group Handicap Hurdle22f · Good · 10 ran PU 16/1
16 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Bossing It (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Heinz Pollmeier Memorial Handicap Steeplechase15.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 100/30F
14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Tolka Row (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Comeragh Veterinary Kilmackthomas Handicap Hurdle21f · Good · 10 ran 8th 13/2
14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Josh Williamson I.P.R.S. Handicap Steeplechase22f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 13/2
07 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh SIS Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 13 ran 6th 3/1F
23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Cottage Autism Network Handicap Hurdle (Div I)24f · Good · 13 ran 1st 5/1
17 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Mic Drop (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally BOYLE Sports Daily Money Back Meeting Handicap Steeplechase17f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 3rd 9/4F
14 Jul 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Tolka Row (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle22f · Good · 13 ran 1st 33/1
04 Jul 26 Bellewstown Tolka Row (IRE)J: Cian Quirke QuinnBet Bellewstown Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good · 15 ran PU 10/1
03 Jul 26 Wexford Bossing It (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Clearwater Construction Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)17f · Good · 14 ran 8th 11/4F
02 Jul 26 Limerick Village Star (IRE)J: Mr S Cavanagh INPBA Supporting Irish Racing Flat Race (In Memory Of Jerry McDonnell)16.5f · Good · 8 ran 8th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David M O'Brien's strike rate?
David M O'Brien has won 13 of 266 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.9% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David M O'Brien do best at?
Tramore by strike rate: 4 wins from 56 runners (7.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David M O'Brien?
Sean Flanagan, with 108 runners since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (5.6%).
Is David M O'Brien in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David M O'Brien's Fair A/E?
0.75, from 266 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).