Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.19).
Deterministic profile computed from 106 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 1.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−1.9
n=27 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −27.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.9
n=40 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −39.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.9
n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
When favourite
0%
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−1.9
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−1.9
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Hurdle races3.2% vs 1.9% · n=62 · A/E 0.27
Over 2m1f – 2m4f2.9% vs 1.9% · n=70 · A/E 0.25
With a new jockey booking1.4% vs 1.9% · n=72 · A/E 0.35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle6223.2%−34.40
Flat2600%−25.00
Chase1800%−18.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5711.8%−44.40
Heavy2600%−26.00
Good to Soft9111.1%+6.00
Good900%−8.00
Standard (AW)500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)4212.4%−30.40
Dax (FR)1100%−10.00
La Teste De Buch900%−9.00
Bordeaux Le Bouscat900%−9.00
Toulouse (FR)800%−8.00
Compiegne (FR)600%−6.00
Deauville (FR)400%−4.00
Clairefontaine (FR)400%−4.00
Vichy3133.3%+12.00
Mont-De-Marsan (FR)300%−3.00
Pau (FR)200%−2.00
Machecoul (FR)100%−1.00
Tarbes (FR)100%−1.00
Limoges (FR)100%—
Chantilly (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41100%−11.00
Class 11000%−10.00
Class 3800%−8.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite600%0.00−6.00
2nd–3rd fav7114.3%0.00+8.00
4th–6th fav2613.8%0.62−14.40
7th+ in betting6500%0.00−65.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f7022.9%−42.40
1m2f – 1m4f1300%−12.00
1m – 1m1f800%−8.00
2m5f – 3m600%−6.00
1m5f – 2m500%−5.00
6f – 7f400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20158112.5%+7.00
2016300%−3.00
2017100%−1.00
2019400%−4.00
20201000%−9.00
2021400%−3.00
20227114.3%+4.60
20231200%−12.00
20241300%−13.00
2025600%−6.00
20263800%−38.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4012.5%−28.40
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3100%−30.00
14-16 runners2800%−28.00
11-13 runners2514%−13.40
17+ runners1100%−11.00
5-7 runners900%−8.00
2-4 runners2150%+13.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 46 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 46 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from C Baillet (2); 40 had their first archived run for this yard.
7 have since run for another yard; 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0000000176000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.4% of 1,074 runs since 2012 (128 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 199. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 158. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.4% from 216.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,825 runs since 2018 (339 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 448. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.7% from 134. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 445.
Muhaymin (USA)25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 10.6% of 662 runs since 2010 (100 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.1% from 113.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 106 · newest first
The latest 50 of 106 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 March 2015 to 1 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is L Cadot's strike rate?
L Cadot has won 2 of 106 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 1.9% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does L Cadot do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 1 wins from 42 runners (2.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is L Cadot in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is L Cadot's Fair A/E?
0.19, from 102 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
L Cadot·SR 1.9%·A/E 0.19
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy