Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.40).
Deterministic profile computed from 223 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026
The read
The record is strongest at Saint-Cloud (FR) (17.9%, n=39), clear of the yard's 8.5% baseline. It is weakest at Auteuil (FR) (3% over 33 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 5.2% (n=77, Fair A/E 1.30). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 3.3% over 30 runners, 5.2pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Private Lesson's (FR) — 9 wins from 77 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.7%−0.8
n=52 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −18.90
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.5
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.5
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.5
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−8.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
31.3%
n=16 · A/E 1.73 · £1 +6.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.2%−3.3
n=77 · A/E 1.30 · £1 −48.10
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.5
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Saint-Cloud (FR)17.9% vs 8.5% · n=39
With C&D winners13.3% vs 8.5% · n=60
At Auteuil (FR)3% vs 8.5% · n=33
Over 2m1f – 2m4f3.8% vs 8.5% · n=52
On Heavy going3.3% vs 8.5% · n=30
With claiming riders up5.2% vs 8.5% · n=77
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat1661710.2%−29.80
Chase3226.3%−13.80
Hurdle2500%−22.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft79810.1%−4.30
Standard (AW)6246.5%−31.60
Good3139.7%−19.00
Heavy3013.3%−17.60
Good to Soft21314.3%+6.90
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)4137.3%−25.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)39717.9%+17.80
Chantilly (FR)3738.1%−5.90
Auteuil (FR)3313%−17.60
Longchamp (FR)2500%−25.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)20315%+5.20
Enghien (FR)1417.1%−8.20
Compiegne900%−9.00
Dieppe (FR)100%−1.00
Fontainebleau100%−1.00
Angers100%−1.00
Clairefontaine11100%+6.10
Nantes (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite16531.3%1.73+6.20
2nd–3rd fav29827.6%2.41+26.50
4th–6th fav4249.5%1.31+10.90
7th+ in betting13321.5%0.50−109.20
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f891011.2%−4.90
2m1f – 2m4f5223.8%−31.80
1m5f – 2m4936.1%−19.00
1m – 1m1f20315%−4.00
2m5f – 3m8112.5%−0.90
6f – 7f500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008100%—
2009200%—
20108112.5%+4.40
2011400%−4.00
201217211.8%+1.70
201328414.3%−1.00
20142514%−18.90
20152229.1%−9.00
201620315%+6.80
201715213.3%+4.00
20182000%−20.00
201930310%−12.10
20201317.7%+0.50
2021900%−9.00
2022800%−8.00
2023100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps146138.9%−33.10
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners9755.2%−47.40
17+ runners5459.3%−13.60
11-13 runners43614%+2.10
8-10 runners1616.3%−8.60
5-7 runners10220%+3.90
2-4 runners300%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 23 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 23 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 17 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard; 17 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
13059911071313013
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
19
Archived wins
£418k
Prize money
2013
Best season · 4 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Cape Clear (FR) — Prix Hamilton (Chase) (Conditions) (4yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Dec 2010
£21,239
Side Protect (FR) — Prix De L'Ile De Re (Chase) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Enghien (FR) · Apr 2013
£19,512
Bunook (GB) — Prix de la Ligue Francaise pour la Protection du Cheval (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Oct 2016
Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,981 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 611. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.2% from 139.
Crillon (FR)11.7% · 9–77
Progeny have won 14.2% of 981 runs since 2009 (97 horses).
Passing Sale (FR)13.3% · 2–15
Progeny have won 11.3% of 666 runs since 2008 (91 horses).
Enrique (GB)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,601 runs since 2008 (289 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.9% from 370. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.8% from 462. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.6% from 347.
Protektor (GER)11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 11.5% of 522 runs since 2008 (84 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6% from 100.
Saddler Maker (IRE)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,173 runs since 2010 (181 horses). Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.3% from 222.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 227 · newest first
The latest 50 of 227 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 October 2006 to 10 November 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is P Bigot's strike rate?
P Bigot has won 19 of 223 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P Bigot do best at?
Saint-Cloud (FR) by strike rate: 7 wins from 39 runners (17.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is P Bigot's Fair A/E?
1.40, from 216 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
P Bigot·SR 8.5%·A/E 1.40
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