What is Raphael Marcel's strike rate?

Raphael Marcel has won 9 of 104 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.7% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Raphael Marcel do best at?

Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 2 wins from 35 runners (5.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is Raphael Marcel's Fair A/E?

1.77, from 103 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Raphael Marcel

104 runners in the lifetime window · 31 individual horses

As at 24 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Jan 2024 95% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

9–104

Wins / Runs

8.7%

Strike rate

n=104

21 (20%)

Placed

1.77

Fair A/E

n=103 · 1.48 incl. margin

+84.60

£1 level stake

n=103 at SP · +82.1%

£120k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.77). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 10% off breaks of two months or more (48 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 104 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 24 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 10.4%

The read

It is weakest at Deauville (FR) (5.7% over 35 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (12.5%, n=56). The market has also underrated the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 1.81 across 99 runners (9.1% strike, +89.60 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 2% over 49 runners, 6.7pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.4%+1.7

n=48 · A/E 2.09 · £1 −0.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

10%+1.3

n=10 · A/E 3.04 · £1 +9.00

Debutants · first career start

9.5%+0.8

n=21 · A/E 2.98 · £1 +7.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−8.7

n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

When favourite

100%

n=1 · A/E 5.63 · £1 +3.70

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

3.8%−4.9

n=26 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −19.70

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.7

n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Standard (AW) going 2% vs 8.7% · n=49

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 12.5% vs 8.7% · n=56

At Deauville (FR) 5.7% vs 8.7% · n=35

With a new jockey booking 10% vs 8.7% · n=70 · A/E 2.25

In Flat races 9.1% vs 8.7% · n=99 · A/E 1.81

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 99 9 9.1% +89.60

Hurdle 4 0 0% −4.00

Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 49 1 2% +57.00

Heavy 17 1 5.9% −6.50

Soft 16 3 18.8% +11.30

Good to Soft 12 1 8.3% −5.70

Good 9 3 33.3% +28.50

Good to Firm 1 0 0% —

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Deauville (FR) 35 2 5.7% +78.10

Chantilly (FR) 19 0 0% −19.00

Saint-Cloud (FR) 15 2 13.3% −4.00

Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 10 2 20% +22.80

Longchamp (FR) 7 1 14.3% +3.50

Auteuil (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00

Clairefontaine (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00

Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) 3 1 33.3% +4.00

Angers (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Enghien (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Dieppe (FR) 1 1 100% +12.20

Lyon Parilly (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Vannes (FR) 1 0 0% —

Chateaubriant (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Craon (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1 1 100% 5.63 +3.70

2nd–3rd fav 8 1 12.5% 0.98 −1.00

4th–6th fav 20 3 15% 1.77 +6.60

7th+ in betting 74 4 5.4% 1.83 +75.30

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Got Flight (FR) 14 2 4 12 Jan 24

Bella Florida (FR) 8 0 3 10 Jul 23

Bella Noche (FR)from P Monfort 8 2 3 29 Feb 20

Immokalee (FR)from Richard Fahey 7 0 2 15 Jun 20

York Town (FR)then S Gouvaze 6 1 1 29 Oct 23

Marina Eria (FR) 6 1 1 10 Jun 19

Zella Des Hardys (FR) 5 0 0 7 Jan 23

Creek Of Zambia (FR) 5 2 3 21 May 20

Saga Des Aigles (FR) 5 0 0 17 Feb 17

Goldy Maker (FR)then Philippe Le Geay 4 1 1 20 Mar 21

Fatima De Clerval (FR) 4 0 0 17 Jun 20

Princess Laura (FR)then S Gouvaze 3 0 0 16 Nov 23

All 31 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 31 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive; 21 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard, most often for S Gouvaze (2); 26 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

00201131033014800

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

RiderRWSR£1

Christopher Grosbois 22 2 9.1% −0.20

Sebastien Martino 15 2 13.3% +17.20

Fabrice Veron 14 1 7.1% −3.50

Delphine Santiago 6 0 0% −6.00

Mme Aude Duporte 6 0 0% −6.00

Antoine Coutier 4 1 25% +0.70

Leo Roussel 3 0 0% −3.00

Antoine Subias 3 1 33.3% +3.30

Mme Coralie Pacaut 3 0 0% −3.00

Maxime Frayssinhes 2 0 0% −2.00

Thomas Trullier 2 0 0% −2.00

Mr Guilain Bertrand 2 1 50% +5.10

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

Archived wins

£120k

Prize money

2018

Best season · 3 wins

York Town (FR) — Prix du Chateau de Longchamp (Handicap) (4yo) (Moyenne Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · May 2023

£13,274

Marina Eria (FR) — Prix de la Genevraye (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Apr 2018

£10,177

Got Flight (FR) — Prix du Cap Levi (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Mar 2023

£8,850

Notable horses

Got Flight (FR) Bella Noche (FR) Creek Of Zambia (FR) York Town (FR) Marina Eria (FR) Goldy Maker (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Style Vendome (FR) 0% · 0–15

Progeny have won 7.2% of 1,232 runs since 2008 (150 horses).

Soldier Of Fortune (IRE) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,823 runs since 2008 (679 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Country Reel (USA) 25% · 2–8

Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,191 runs since 2008 (143 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13.4% from 149.

Brametot (IRE) 14.3% · 1–7

Progeny have won 4.7% of 193 runs since 2008 (37 horses).

Sinndar (IRE) 16.7% · 1–6

Progeny have won 11.3% of 3,408 runs since 2008 (394 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.2% from 256. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.3% from 132.

Milk It Mick (GB) 0% · 0–5

Progeny have won 5.9% of 726 runs since 2008 (52 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 9.2% from 152.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 104 · newest first

The latest 50 of 104 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 30 April 2015 to 19 January 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Jan 24 Deauville (FR) Aoraki (FR)J: Leo Roussel Prix de Saint-James (Maiden) (4yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)7.5f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 66/1

12 Jan 24 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Eddy Hardouin Prix du Trident (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 10th 41/5

29 Dec 23 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Leo Roussel Prix de la Bourdonniere (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 20/1

29 Dec 23 Deauville (FR) Sealeria (FR)J: Leo Roussel Prix de Martainville (Conditions) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 15 ran 15th 45/1

05 Dec 23 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix de la Maison de la Truie Qui File (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 15 ran 6th 20/1

16 Nov 23 Deauville (FR) Princess Laura (FR)J: Mme Coralie Pacaut Prix de l'Hotel du Doyen (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 15 ran 15th 46/1

16 Nov 23 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Theo Bachelot Prix de l'Hotel du Doyen (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 15 ran 11th 27/1

29 Oct 23 Longchamp (FR) York Town (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix des Erables (Handicap) (3yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf)14f · Heavy · 12 ran 5th 25/1

29 Oct 23 Longchamp (FR) Princess Laura (FR)J: Mme Coralie Pacaut Prix de Ponthieu (Handicap) (3yo) (Grande Course) (Turf)11f · Heavy · 14 ran 13th 35/1

15 Sep 23 Saint-Cloud (FR) Princess Laura (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Lieu Feral (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf)10f · Soft · 18 ran 17th 37/1

15 Sep 23 Saint-Cloud (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Mr Guilain Bertrand Prix de Massy - iJockey GPA Handicap Challenge (Handicap) (4yo+) (Amateur Riders) (Turf)10.5f · Soft · 11 ran 5th 17/1

27 Aug 23 Deauville (FR) Rayjo (FR)J: Mme Coralie Pacaut Prix Casino Barriere Trouville (Handicap) (3yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)7f · Slow · 16 ran 16th 67/1

22 Aug 23 Deauville (FR) York Town (FR)J: Delphine Santiago Trophee du Personnel Categorie Personnel de Soins (Handicap) (3yo+) (Round Course) (Turf)16f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 20/1

10 Jul 23 Chantilly (FR) Bella Florida (FR)J: Thomas Trullier Prix de Versigny (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)13.5f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 12/1

10 Jul 23 Chantilly (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix de Versigny (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)13.5f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 19/5

11 May 23 Longchamp (FR) York Town (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Chateau de Longchamp (Handicap) (4yo) (Moyenne Course) (Turf)15f · Heavy · 10 ran 1st 19/2

17 Apr 23 Chantilly (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Chemin de la Cartouche (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)10.5f · Standard · 15 ran 7th 35/1

17 Apr 23 Chantilly (FR) Bella Florida (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Chemin des Poissonniers (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 13/1

10 Mar 23 Deauville (FR) Bella Florida (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Cap Levi (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 16 ran 13th 71/10

10 Mar 23 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Damien Boche Prix du Cap Levi (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 16 ran 1st 105/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Raphael Marcel's strike rate?: Raphael Marcel has won 9 of 104 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.7% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Raphael Marcel do best at?: Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 2 wins from 35 runners (5.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Raphael Marcel's Fair A/E?: 1.77, from 103 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.