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Trainer profile

Sarah Joanna Connell

52 runners in the last 5 seasons · 8 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)
from 1 Jan 2022
6–52
Wins / Runs
11.5%
Strike rate
n=52
15 (29%)
Placed
1.70
Fair A/E
n=52 · 1.36 incl. margin
−18.00
£1 level stake
n=52 at SP · −34.6%
£76,762
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
22.7%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−11.5
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−11.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−11.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
100%+88.5
n=1 · A/E 3.24 · £1 +1.75
When favourite
100%
n=2 · A/E 3.84 · £1 +4.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.3%−1.2
n=29 · A/E 1.43 · £1 −15.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Aidan Kelly 16.7% vs 11.5% · n=30
In Hurdle races 8.6% vs 11.5% · n=35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 35 3 8.6% −21.00
Chase 15 3 20% +5.00
NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 24 3 12.5% −12.50
Heavy 12 0 0% −12.00
Good 9 2 22.2% +8.00
Good to Soft 7 1 14.3% −1.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 6 0 0% −6.00
Naas 5 0 0% −5.00
Wexford 5 1 20% −2.25
Fairyhouse 4 0 0% −4.00
Killarney 4 0 0% −4.00
Leopardstown 4 1 25% +1.00
Navan 4 1 25% −0.25
Cork 3 1 33.3% +6.50
Tipperary 3 0 0% −3.00
Limerick 3 1 33.3% +4.50
Down Royal 2 1 50% +3.50
Galway 2 0 0% −2.00
Thurles 2 0 0% −2.00
Tramore 2 0 0% −2.00
Ayr 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 2 50% 2.31 +2.50
2nd–3rd fav 4 2 50% 2.81 +6.50
4th–6th fav 17 2 11.8% 1.77 +0.00
7th+ in betting 27 0 0% 0.00 −27.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
90% completed · 50 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 15 93.3% 0 0 1 0 0
Hurdle 35 88.6% 0 0 4 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Catchabird (IRE)from W J Burke 13 2 6 30 Apr 26
Claude (IRE)from Joseph Patrick O'Brien 11 2 4 30 Oct 26
Promontory (IRE) 10 2 4 18 Apr 26
Marie's March (IRE)from W P Mullins 7 0 1 7 Feb 26
Copper Coast (IRE)from W J Burke 7 0 0 7 Aug 24
Brooklyn Bridge (FR) 2 0 0 5 Mar 24
Gold Bullion (FR)from Henry De Bromhead 1 0 0 11 May 25
Alpine Swift (IRE) 1 0 0 25 Feb 24
All 8 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 8 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from W J Burke (2); 3 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0030130·0003300
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAidan Kelly
58% of all rides
16.7% SR · A/E 2.24
RiderRWSR£1
Aidan Kelly 30 5 16.7% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→
6
Archived wins
£76,762
Prize money
2026
Best season · 5 wins
Promontory (IRE) — Dublin National Handicap Chase Leopardstown · Mar 2026
£14,725
Claude (IRE) — Metcollect Handicap Steeplechase Down Royal (IRE) · Oct 2026
£9,000
Catchabird (IRE) — Wilkinson Jewellers Of Navan Mares Handicap Hurdle Navan · Mar 2026
£8,835
Notable horses
Catchabird (IRE) Claude (IRE) Promontory (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Getaway (GER) 14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,962 runs since 2008 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Caravaggio (USA) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 11.8% of 1,773 runs since 2008 (201 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.3% from 166.
Fame And Glory (GB) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,209 runs since 2008 (504 horses).
Lucky Speed (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 6.3% of 427 runs since 2008 (61 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.3% from 151.
Sans Frontieres (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,254 runs since 2008 (155 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.1% from 184.
Kendargent (FR) 0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 9.6% of 5,235 runs since 2008 (580 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 255.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 52 · newest first

The latest 50 of 52 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 February 2024 to 30 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
30 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Claude (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Metcollect Handicap Steeplechase16.5f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 1st 9/2
11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Claude (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Friends Of Castlemagner LGFA Rated Novice Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 17/2
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Claude (IRE)J: Peter Smithers Killarney Races Handicap Steeplechase17f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 7th 100/30
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Claude (IRE)J: Peter Smithers Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Steeplechase17f · Yielding · 16 ran 4th 11/1
13 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Claude (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Flynn Hotel Group Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 15/2
27 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Claude (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly EASYFIX Iggy Daly Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 20 ran 11th 33/1
16 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Claude (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Kerry Drains Handicap Hurdle17f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 18/1
10 May 26 Cork Claude (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Farm And Industrial Spares Mallow Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)19f · Good · 15 ran 11th 40/1
30 Apr 26 Punchestown Catchabird (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Close Brothers Irish EBF Mares Novice Hurdle (Listed)16.5f · Yielding · 5 ran 5th 28/1
29 Apr 26 Punchestown Claude (IRE)J: Peter Smithers Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 24 ran PU 66/1
18 Apr 26 Ayr Promontory (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 32f · Heavy · 16 ran 6th 13/2
21 Mar 26 Navan Catchabird (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Wilkinson Jewellers Of Navan Mares Handicap Hurdle16f · Soft · 12 ran 1st 11/4F
17 Mar 26 Wexford Catchabird (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Wexford Racecourse Saturday Mornings Park Run Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 9 ran 1st 7/4F
03 Mar 26 Leopardstown Catchabird (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly QuinnBet Mares Handicap Hurdle18.5f · Soft · 13 ran 4th 8/1
02 Mar 26 Leopardstown Promontory (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Dublin National Handicap Chase28.5f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 1st 4/1
08 Feb 26 Navan Promontory (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap Chase24f · Heavy · 17 ran 2nd 12/1
07 Feb 26 Naas Marie's March (IRE)J: Caragh Monaghan Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle15.5f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran PU 28/1
04 Feb 26 Punchestown Catchabird (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly ThatPrizeGuy.co.uk Mares Handicap Hurdle23f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 13/2
22 Jan 26 Gowran Park Marie's March (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Langton House Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Heavy · 15 ran 10th 16/1
20 Jan 26 Down Royal Catchabird (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Coors Mares Handicap Hurdle17f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 7/2J

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Sarah Joanna Connell's strike rate?
Sarah Joanna Connell has won 6 of 52 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.5% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Sarah Joanna Connell in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Sarah Joanna Connell's Fair A/E?
1.70, from 52 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).