3:10 Cartmel
The 3:10 at Cartmel is a competitive Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m6f31y on good to soft ground, with a field of 13 runners where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top end. Belvedere Blast heads the KTB rankings on 64, followed closely by Handmedownastar on 60, Ballyearl on 57, Fairlawn Skipper on 56 and Nottodaybobo on 54, indicating a race with several smart performers in form or with strong course claims. The overall numbers suggest a race that will be decided by how the strong pace unfolds and which horses can capitalise on the likely late collapse.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape rated as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a keen gallop from the outset. Handmedownastar and Dusky Days are the types to make the running or race prominently, which could set it up for the hold-up performers. The key question is whether the pace collapses late, in which case the hold-up horses such as Belvedere Blast, Fairlawn Skipper, Nottodaybobo and several others will be ideally positioned to strike.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Belvedere Blast KTB Selection64/100
Belvedere Blast is a smart performer who has been placed on his only visit to Cartmel and has solid placed form at today's trip. He drops back in distance after a recent 2m7f run and tries headgear for the first time, which could sharpen him up. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Adrian Keatley has a 33% strike rate at Cartmel with an A/E of 2.44 from three runs, while the jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track from one ride. The horse has one win from 10 starts on good to soft with three places, and his recent form reads 0-3395.
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2Handmedownastar60/100
Handmedownastar is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order after winning last time out to go 2-3 in completed starts. Lightly raced with only a small sample of form to go on, he needs to be treated with some caution. The 6-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace. Trainer Nick Scholfield has a 25% strike rate at Cartmel with an A/E of 0.92 from four runs, while the jockey has no record at the track. He has been placed once from one start on good to soft without winning, has no course form on record, and his recent form figures read 2132-1. The step up in trip today is an unknown.
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3Ballyearl57/100
Ballyearl is a smart performer who showed useful form when winning at this track last summer. He has failed to fire in two starts this season though and now steps up in trip for the first time. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer L J Morgan has a 19% strike rate at Cartmel with an A/E of 1.09 from 27 runs, and the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.07 from 118 rides. The horse has no runs on good to soft so is unproven on the ground, has no course form on record beyond that prior win, and his recent form reads 160-P8. The yard's trainer and jockey combination shows 7/30 (23%) with an A/E of 1.01.
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4Fairlawn Skipper56/100
Fairlawn Skipper is a smart performer who won over this trip on his only previous try here at Cartmel. He has shown useful form on good to soft ground without winning on it yet and arrives in solid order after a recent success. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Mickey Bowen has a 16% strike rate at Cartmel with an A/E of 0.76 from 62 runs, while the jockey has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.6 from 12 rides. He has been placed once from two starts on good to soft without winning, and he won here from one visit. His recent form reads 34-901 and he is stepping up in class.
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5Nottodaybobo54/100
Nottodaybobo is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins this spring. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while this is also his first run at Cartmel. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Micky Hammond has an 11% strike rate at Cartmel with an A/E of 0.72 from 309 runs, and the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.15 from 22 rides. The horse has been placed once from two starts on good to soft without winning, and his recent form reads 73-112. The trainer and jockey combination shows 18/201 (9%) with an A/E of 0.90.
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6Rauzan54/100
Rauzan is a useful performer who has been out of form this season with three modest efforts. He has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground and has won over today's trip, but his three runs at Cartmel have produced no better than sixth place. The trainer has an 11% strike rate here from 90 runs.
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7Well Educated52/100
Well Educated is a useful performer who has been consistent of late with four seconds from his last five starts. He has run nine times at Cartmel without winning and is stepping up in trip today having last run over 2m1f, though he has placed twice from three starts at this distance. The yard holds a solid 12% strike rate here from 103 runs.
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8Secret Secret51/100
Secret Secret is a useful performer with a solid Cartmel record of three wins from 13 runs and has won three times at today's trip. He has been consistent this year without winning, finishing in the first five on all five starts, and handles good to soft ground well with two wins and three places from seven attempts. The yard's 12 percent strike rate from 740 runs at the track is respectable.
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9Big Gypsy King51/100
Big Gypsy King is a useful performer who has already won over this course in four visits. He steps up in trip today having last run over 2m1f, which asks a fresh question, while he remains unproven on good to soft ground. The trainer records a 12% strike rate from 740 runs at Cartmel.
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10Dinons51/100
Dinons is a smart performer on his day who has placed on two of his last three starts and won at today's trip. He has been below form in both Cartmel runs though and is now a 13-year-old with a modest strike rate on good to soft. The trainer records a solid 14% strike rate at the track from a big sample.
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11Masterminding46/100
Masterminding is a fair handicapper who has been placed three times from four runs at Cartmel without winning. He has solid recent form including two seconds here and drops back in trip today having been placed all three starts at this distance. The trainer holds a 12 percent strike rate from 740 runs at the track.
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12Enya46/100
Enya is a useful performer who has shown consistent form, finishing no worse than fourth in all five starts and running a solid second on return last time. She steps up in trip today for the first time, which asks a fresh question of her. The yard has a 12% strike rate from 740 runs at Cartmel.
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13Dusky Days44/100
Dusky Days is a useful performer who has won once from ten starts at Cartmel and arrives in reasonable form for a yard with a solid 12 percent strike rate here from a large sample. He has placed on good to soft ground without winning and is dropping back in trip today having been placed at this distance on one of five attempts. First-time headgear is now applied.
KTB verdict
Belvedere Blast is the KTB Selection. He brings smart ability, has been placed on his only Cartmel visit, possesses solid placed form at the trip, and the first-time headgear could sharpen him up at a track where his trainer has shown a strong A/E. His hold-up style looks ideal given the strong pace that is likely to collapse late. The main dangers are Handmedownastar, who arrives in excellent order after a recent win, and Fairlawn Skipper, who won over this trip on his only previous try at the course and is in solid order.
KTB Selection Belvedere Blast
This is the narrative read of the 3:10 Cartmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cartmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cartmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time and has won at Cartmel last summer?
Ballyearl, who showed useful form when winning at this track last summer but has failed to fire in two starts this season.
How many wins has Secret Secret recorded at Cartmel?
Three wins from 13 runs at Cartmel.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Cartmel for the yard of the KTB Selection?
33% strike rate at Cartmel with an A/E of 2.44 from three runs.
Which two horses are the habitual front-runners in a race with a strong pace likely?
Handmedownastar, who tends to make the running or race on the pace, and Dusky Days, who also tends to make the running or race on the pace.
What is the course record of the 13-year-old Dinons at Cartmel?
Two runs at Cartmel with figures of 8th and 11th, no win or place.
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