3:20 Perth
This Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m47y at Perth on good ground features a field of eight where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Castleheath on 63, narrowly ahead of Try Them on 61, with Pure Gold and Inappropriate both on 57. The numbers suggest a competitive renewal in which course form, going preferences and the strong pace anticipated will all play significant parts.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is likely given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners in Scriabin and Nobotheratall, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. Several others, including the top four in the KTB Fit rankings, are typically held-up performers who produce their effort late. This shape raises the possibility of the pace collapsing late on, which would play into the hands of those racing off the speed and coming from behind.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Castleheath KTB Selection63/100
Castleheath is a smart performer who has shown consistent form this year and ran a solid second last time out. He has already won on good ground and at today's trip, while the booking of Sean Bowen is a plus given his strong 32% strike rate at Perth from a big sample of rides. The trainer's record here is too small to judge from just two runs. Usually held up, Castleheath produces his effort late and that run style looks well suited to the race's anticipated strong pace. His recent form figures read /450-2 and he carries a KTB Fit score of 63.
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2Try Them61/100
Try Them is a smart performer who has already won over this trip and on this ground. He has won here from two starts at Perth and arrives in good heart after a recent victory, with recent form figures reading 55-021. Both trainer and jockey hold solid records at the track, the yard showing 16% strike rate and an A/E of 1.01 while Brian Hughes is on 15% with an A/E of 0.89 from a huge sample. Usually held up with medium confidence, he should be produced late in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. His KTB Fit score stands at 61.
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3Pure Gold57/100
Pure Gold is a useful performer with a solid record here, including a win from ten runs at Perth. He has also won three times at today's trip and shown consistent form this year, with recent form figures of 5-4434, though his record on good ground is only modest with just two wins from twenty runs. The trainer and jockey both have established but unspectacular records at the track, Lisa Harrison on 10% with an A/E of 0.97 and Peter Kavanagh on 9% with an A/E of 0.92. A habitual hold-up performer with high confidence, he is dropping in class and his KTB Fit score is 57.
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4Inappropriate57/100
Inappropriate is a smart performer who has won twice over today's trip and boasts a solid record on good ground with four wins from ten starts. He drops back in distance after his latest effort and brings strong recent form including a second on his penultimate start, with figures reading 5952-6. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.89 while the jockey is on 7% from a large sample of 322 rides. Usually held up with medium confidence, he carries a KTB Fit score of 57 and should be suited if the strong pace materialises as expected.
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5Scriabin54/100
Scriabin is a smart performer who has won here over this trip and handles good ground. Recent form has been mixed with a clear win sandwiched between lesser efforts, while the yard and jockey both operate at a modest 8% strike rate at Perth. Course form of 1-7 adds some encouragement but he needs to bounce back from his latest run. A front-runner with high confidence, he is dropping in class and holds a KTB Fit score of 54.
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6Nobotheratall54/100
Nobotheratall is a smart performer who arrives in solid form having won two of his last three starts. He drops back in trip today having looked stretched at 2m4f last time though he has won over this distance previously and acts on good ground. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Perth is a negative while the jockey's record here is more respectable. A front-runner with high confidence, his KTB Fit score is 54.
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7Just Dottie47/100
Just Dottie is a useful mare who has won four times at this track from 18 runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with four wins from 23 starts. She has been consistent enough in recent runs but now drops back in distance having last raced over 2m4f and tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey is 1-10 at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, her KTB Fit score is 47.
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8Elemental Eye45/100
Elemental Eye is a useful performer who has won over this trip and shown enough on good ground to remain competitive at this level. He has been out of sorts on his last three starts though and makes his first visit to Perth today. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track. Stepping up in class, he is usually held up with high confidence and his KTB Fit score is 45.
KTB verdict
Castleheath is the KTB Selection. A smart performer with consistent form this year and a solid second last time, he has already won on good ground and at today's trip. The booking of Sean Bowen, who boasts a 32% strike rate at Perth from 342 rides, is another positive and his hold-up style should be ideally suited if the strong pace collapses late. The main dangers are Try Them, who arrives in good heart after a recent win at the track, and Pure Gold, who has a good course record and is dropping in class, while Inappropriate cannot be ruled out on his good-ground record and recent placed form.
KTB Selection Castleheath
This is the narrative read of the 3:20 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Castleheath, who is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, should be favoured if the strong pace collapses as anticipated.
How many previous course winners are in the field?
Three horses have won at Perth: Try Them (1 from 2), Pure Gold (1 from 10) and Scriabin (1 from 7), while Just Dottie has four course wins from 18 starts.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Pure Gold and Scriabin are both dropping in class.
Who is stepping up in class?
Elemental Eye is stepping up in class.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Perth?
Sean Bowen has a 32% strike rate at Perth from 342 rides.
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