1:53 Catterick
This Class 6 nursery handicap at Catterick over 5f 212y on good ground features an eight-runner field of largely modest two-year-olds. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 53 and 43, reflecting a race where ordinary form is the standard and any spark of improvement could prove decisive. Dropping in class is a theme for several runners, while first-time headgear is applied to three in a bid to unlock potential.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the closers to reel in. Mick's The Boy is the only front-runner in the field and looks set to dictate from the front. The remaining seven are all held-up types who will be produced with an effort late, raising the key question of whether the leader can get away and whether the pack can close the gap in the final furlong on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Moriarty Moon KTB Selection53/100
Moriarty Moon is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form across four starts, finishing no closer than sixth. He has been tried over today's trip twice without success and now tries first-time headgear in a bid to spark improvement. The Michael Bell yard brings a 24% strike rate at Catterick from 166 runs, while Jason Hart has a 15% strike rate at the track from 515 rides. The combination of a drop in class, the first-time headgear and the held-up run style could suit if the uncontested leader sets a strong pace that sets up for late closers. Bell's overall record with the jockey is 2/26 at 8% with an A/E of 0.34.
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2Spectacular Diver51/100
Spectacular Diver is a modest performer who has shown mixed form in five runs, including a placed effort on his penultimate start but a disappointing seventh last time. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The Tim Easterby yard has a 12% strike rate at Catterick from 1930 runs, while Sean Kirrane has a 17% strike rate at the track from 117 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. The trainer and jockey combination reads 93/914 at 10% with an A/E of 0.85.
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3Cheeky Chesca50/100
Cheeky Chesca is a modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with three placed efforts in her last six starts. She has been placed once from two runs at Catterick and once from two starts on good ground, though she is yet to win. Stepping up in trip today having already been placed without winning at this distance, she arrives with placed form over course and distance in the past. Usually held up, she will be produced late in a race that looks likely to feature an uncontested leader. The Tim Easterby and David Allan combination shows 988/9057 at 11% with an A/E of 0.84.
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4Aura Of Melania49/100
Aura Of Melania is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the first three on three of her last four starts including a placed effort over course and distance. First-time headgear is now tried after a string of creditable runs in this grade. She has been placed once from two starts on good ground and was second on her sole previous visit to Catterick. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, she will be aiming to come from off the pace against a likely clear leader. The Roger Fell yard has a 10% strike rate at the track from 180 runs, while Kevin Stott has a 14% strike rate from 210 rides.
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5Lady Titania49/100
Lady Titania has shown only limited ability in three runs to date, finishing no better than seventh. The step up in trip asks a fresh question while the draw in stall 1 could be an advantage at this track. Trainer K R Burke has a solid 16% strike rate from 411 runs at Catterick, though the jockey Jack Nicholls has no established record here.
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6Steamy Wonder47/100
Steamy Wonder has shown only limited ability in three runs to date and now drops back from 7f to 5f where he was beaten 11 lengths on his only previous attempt at the distance. First-time headgear is reached for in a bid to spark improvement from a fair draw. The Dylan Cunha yard has a solid 25% strike rate at Catterick from 12 runs.
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7Mick's The Boy47/100
Mick's The Boy is a modest performer who has shown just one placed effort in three starts at this trip. He ran respectably when sixth over course and distance on his penultimate start but failed to build on that last time. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard's modest 5% strike-rate at Catterick offers little encouragement. As the only front-runner he is set to take the uncontested lead.
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8Johns Power43/100
Johns Power is a limited sort who has shown little since a modest debut fourth over this course and trip. He has failed to build on that run in four subsequent starts at this distance and looks up against it from a modest base. Trainer Roger Fell has a solid 10% strike rate at Catterick from a decent sample of runners.
KTB verdict
Moriarty Moon is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with ordinary form so far, he drops in class, tries first-time headgear and has the benefit of a trainer with a 24% strike rate at Catterick. The held-up run style could be well suited if the race develops with an uncontested leader setting things up for those produced late. His main dangers are the consistent Aura Of Melania who brings course and distance placings plus first-time headgear, and Cheeky Chesca who has shown placed form at the track and on good ground.
KTB Selection Moriarty Moon
This is the narrative read of the 1:53 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Mick's The Boy is the only front-runner and is set to make the running given the lone leader pace shape.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Three runners are trying first-time headgear: Moriarty Moon, Aura Of Melania and Steamy Wonder.
Which horse has the best recent course form at Catterick?
Aura Of Melania has been placed on her only start here, while Cheeky Chesca has been placed once from two runs at the track.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Catterick in this field?
Dylan Cunha has a 25% strike rate at Catterick from 12 runs, followed by Michael Bell at 24% from 166 runs.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at the track among those riding today?
Jack Nicholls has a 32% strike rate at Catterick from 19 rides.
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