What is Roger Fell's strike rate?

Roger Fell has won 114 of 1,220 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.3% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Roger Fell do best at?

Redcar by strike rate: 18 wins from 104 runners (17.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Roger Fell?

Jonny Peate, with 242 runners since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (9.1%).

Is Roger Fell in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Roger Fell's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 1,216 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Roger Fell

1,220 runners in the last 5 seasons · 134 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 1.5% of 274 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 20 Oct 2026.

Last runner 3 days ago 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)

from 1 Jan 2022

114–1,220

Wins / Runs

9.3%

Strike rate

n=1,220

322 (26%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=1,216 · 0.86 incl. margin

−280.86

£1 level stake

n=1,220 at SP · −23.0%

£1.22m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 240 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). New recruits from other yards win at 15% first time out (61 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,220 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–Jun 30.1% when favourite Jonny Peate: 9.1% from 242 New recruits: 14.8% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Redcar (17.3%, n=104), clear of the yard's 9.3% baseline. It is weakest at York (0% over 81 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 14.8% (n=61, Fair A/E 1.80), but debutants struggle at 1.9% (n=52, Fair A/E 0.55). Jonny Peate rides 20% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.1%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (16.2%, n=130). The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 3.4% over 87 runners, 5.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 3: Fair A/E 0.55 across 87 runners (3.4% strike, −54.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Gigaset International Stakes at Ascot (Jul 2018, £93,375). The stable star of the record: Dapper Man (IRE) — 16 wins from 98 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.5%−2.8

n=123 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −59.25

New recruits · first run for the yard

14.8%+5.5

n=61 · A/E 1.80 · £1 +49.25

Debutants · first career start

1.9%−7.4

n=52 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −42.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

10%+0.7

n=30 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +9.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

7.1%−2.2

n=42 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −21.50

When favourite

30.1%

n=83 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −11.76

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.2%−0.1

n=326 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −36.95

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.3

n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At York 0% vs 9.3% · n=81

At Redcar 17.3% vs 9.3% · n=104

Off a 0-7-day break 16.2% vs 9.3% · n=130

With debutants 1.9% vs 9.3% · n=52

In Class 2 3.4% vs 9.3% · n=87

In Class 3 3.4% vs 9.3% · n=87

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,191 112 9.4% −280.86

Hurdle 22 1 4.5% −19.00

Chase 5 1 20% +21.00

NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 386 29 7.5% −116.58

Good 324 29 9% −82.26

Good to Firm 265 29 10.9% −80.10

Good to Soft 124 15 12.1% −4.42

Soft 97 7 7.2% −6.50

Heavy 24 5 20.8% +9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 181 10 5.5% −83.88

Southwell (AW) 162 16 9.9% +0.20

Redcar 104 18 17.3% +27.95

Thirsk 87 6 6.9% −46.92

York 81 0 0% −81.00

Catterick 72 6 8.3% −16.12

Doncaster 71 9 12.7% −15.67

Beverley 68 7 10.3% +17.00

Ripon 66 8 12.1% +0.40

Pontefract 55 7 12.7% −12.05

Wolverhampton (AW) 38 3 7.9% −27.90

Musselburgh 30 4 13.3% +51.38

Carlisle 28 2 7.1% −12.38

Hamilton 26 3 11.5% −13.50

Wetherby 25 4 16% +1.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 434 53 12.2% −1.49

Class 5 355 32 9% −101.78

Class 4 241 23 9.5% −56.09

Class 2 87 3 3.4% −51.50

Class 3 87 3 3.4% −54.00

Class 1 16 0 0% −16.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 108 31 28.7% 1.12 −10.60

2nd–3rd fav 211 30 14.2% 0.90 −48.26

4th–6th fav 435 38 8.7% 1.07 −76.00

7th+ in betting 466 15 3.2% 0.98 −146.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Ustath (GB)from Owen Burrows 41 4 11 21 Apr 25

Harswell Ruby (IRE)from Roger Fell & Sean Murray 31 2 13 3 Oct 26

Eldrickjones (IRE) 28 2 5 20 Jun 26

End Zone (GB)from David Simcock 28 2 9 1 Nov 24

Iron Sheriff (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast · then Roger Fell & Sean Murray 27 3 8 31 May 23

Harswell River (IRE) 25 1 6 28 Aug 26

Glory Hyde (IRE)from Roger Fell & Sean Murray 24 5 10 15 Aug 26

Woodleigh (IRE)from Declan Carroll 23 4 8 16 Oct 26

La Trinidad (GB) 23 1 7 28 Mar 26

Primo (GB)from George Boughey · then Roger Fell & Sean Murray 21 3 6 8 May 23

Kiss Me My Love (IRE)from Charlie Johnston 19 3 7 16 Oct 26

Spantik (GB)from Archie Watson 19 0 6 26 Dec 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 134 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 36 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Roger Fell & Sean Murray (5) and Kevin Prendergast (3); 24 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard, most often for Roger Fell & Sean Murray (17); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 10

Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

873111117751010715

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJonny Peate

20% of all rides
9.1% SR · A/E 1.02

RiderRWSR£1

Jonny Peate 242 22 9.1% −31.05

Ben Curtis 105 9 8.6% −47.13

Joanna Mason 96 12 12.5% −15.52

Jason Hart 95 14 14.7% +29.88

Rowan Scott 88 4 4.5% −46.80

Mark Winn 60 6 10% −15.29

Kevin Stott 56 8 14.3% +23.88

Sam James 44 4 9.1% −23.68

Oisin McSweeney 41 3 7.3% −24.00

Clifford Lee 38 4 10.5% −19.00

Daniel Tudhope 34 2 5.9% −18.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→

353

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.82m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 58 wins

Burnt Sugar (IRE) — Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · Jul 2018 · Class 2

£93,375

Burnt Sugar (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Sovereign Path' Handicap (Premier Handicap) Leopardstown · Sep 2017

£88,500

Burnt Sugar (IRE) — Bet365 Bunbury Cup Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2018 · Class 2

£74,700

Notable horses

Dapper Man (IRE) Muntadab (IRE) Zylan (IRE) Ustath (GB) Zihaam (GB) Zodiakos (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Cotai Glory (GB) 14.4% · 16–111

Progeny have won 11.4% of 3,917 runs since 2008 (389 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.6% from 1,396. Weakest on Soft going: 7% from 417.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 11.8% · 8–68

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,816 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Dandy Man (IRE) 11.9% · 8–67

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,917 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 8.5% · 4–47

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,025 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

River Boyne (IRE) 4.3% · 2–46

Progeny have won 2.2% of 229 runs since 2008 (24 horses).

Bated Breath (GB) 9.1% · 4–44

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,128 runs since 2008 (669 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.7% from 843.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,642 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,642 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 September 2016 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 26 Catterick Zarvali (IRE)J: Oisin Orr William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 5th 25/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Woodleigh (IRE)J: Mr Jack Loughnane Watch Racing Replays At racingtv.com Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 6th 9/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Folkene (FR)J: Callum Shepherd racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 17th 14/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Kiss Me My Love (IRE)J: Kevin Stott racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 2nd 7/2F

16 Oct 26 Redcar Johns Power (GB)J: Joanna Mason Market Cross Jewellers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 8/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Here Comes Louie (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Free Bets On Attheraces.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 14/1

10 Oct 26 York Nyman (IRE)J: Joanna Mason Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 20 ran 15th 11/1

09 Oct 26 York Big Cyril (IRE)J: Jack Callan Pj Staffing Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 19th 50/1

09 Oct 26 York Khafiz (IRE)J: Jason Watson William Hill Gold Weekend Autumn Mile Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 12th 40/1

08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Twin And Tonic (GB)J: Cam Hardie Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 200/1

06 Oct 26 Leicester Folkene (FR)J: Conor Whiteley Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 8th 9/2

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Alpha Capture (IRE)J: Joanna Mason Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 3 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 5th 7/2J

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Andesite (GB)J: Kevin Stott Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 3 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 12th 4/1J

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Gold Queen Kindly (IRE)J: Shane Gray Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 3 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 6th 25/1

03 Oct 26 Redcar Harswell Ruby (IRE)J: Rhys Elliott Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-mile Series Final Handicap StakesClass 2 · 8f · Good · 14 ran 8th 18/1

03 Oct 26 Redcar Nyman (IRE)J: Joanna Mason Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-mile Series Final Handicap StakesClass 2 · 8f · Good · 14 ran 1st 14/1

03 Oct 26 Redcar Woodleigh (IRE)J: Oisin McSweeney Prohibition Bar Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 5th 7/2

30 Sep 26 Catterick Zarvali (IRE)J: David Nolan Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 7th 14/1

30 Sep 26 Catterick Kiss Me My Love (IRE)J: Joanna Mason Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 22/1

30 Sep 26 Catterick Johns Power (GB)J: Cian Horgan Racing To School Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 6 ran 4th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Roger Fell's strike rate?: Roger Fell has won 114 of 1,220 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.3% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Roger Fell do best at?: Redcar by strike rate: 18 wins from 104 runners (17.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Roger Fell?: Jonny Peate, with 242 runners since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (9.1%).
Is Roger Fell in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Roger Fell's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 1,216 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.