4:45 Doncaster
This Class 3 nursery handicap at Doncaster over 7f on good to soft ground brings together eight two-year-olds, several of whom arrive in decent form having already shown their ability at the trip. All bar one are dropping in class, which adds an extra layer of competitiveness to proceedings. The KTB Fit scores identify Undiscovered as the clear top pick on 63, followed by Rafe's Da Man on 57, Fuel The Jet on 53 and Weekend Roar on 50, painting a picture of a race where progressive types with recent wins hold the aces.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence, suggesting it is not entirely clear how the race will unfold on the sharp Doncaster straight. Fuel The Jet has a tendency to make the running or race prominently, while Rafe's Da Man usually races handily on or close to the lead. Several others, including the selection Undiscovered, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, which could mean the race is decided by those coming from off the pace if the leaders go hard enough early. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the hold-up performers will be able to reel them in on this ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Undiscovered KTB Selection63/100
Undiscovered is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts, including at this trip, with recent form figures of 116. He is dropping in class here from a low draw in stall one, which could prove a help on the sharp Doncaster straight. The Ralph Beckett yard has a solid 15% strike rate at the track from a big sample of 414 runs while Rossa Ryan takes the ride, though the jockey is yet to record a winner from only a handful of rides at Doncaster. He is unproven on good to soft ground having had no runs on it and has no course form on record. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though that read comes with limited evidence and low confidence, he looks well placed to make a bold bid.
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2Rafe's Da Man57/100
Rafe's Da Man has shown useful form, winning last time out over today's trip after three placed efforts for recent form figures of 4431. He is dropping in class and usually races handily, on or close to the lead, with medium confidence attached to that run-style. The Richard Hannon yard posts a 13% strike rate from 650 runs at Doncaster while Ryan Moore is on board. With only four career starts the going suitability remains unknown on good to soft. He has no course form on record but arrives with momentum and looks sure to be involved in the shake-up.
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3Fuel The Jet53/100
Fuel The Jet is a fair two-year-old who has already won at this trip from three starts, with recent form figures of 519. He showed useful improvement when landing a nursery last time and remains open to further progress while dropping in class. The Tom Clover yard holds a solid 20% strike rate at Doncaster from 50 runs. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, though that read is based on limited evidence with low confidence. The going remains an unknown on only three runs with no experience of good to soft and he has no course form on record.
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4Weekend Roar50/100
Weekend Roar is a fair performer who has shown useful placed form mixed with a couple of lesser efforts in four runs for figures of 3140. He is stepping up from 6f to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question while dropping in class. The Hugo Palmer yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 185 runs while James Doyle is aboard. He has one run on good to soft, in which he showed no win or place, and has no course form on record. Typically settling in midfield with medium confidence in that run-style, he remains a contender if the longer trip suits.
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5Midgham Man50/100
Midgham Man is a fair two-year-old who has shown steady improvement, winning on good-to-soft ground last time with form figures of 541. He boasts a solid record at this trip, has the benefit of a low draw and acts on the surface, though the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Doncaster is a negative. Usually held up with medium confidence and still lightly raced overall.
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6Storm Blade49/100
Storm Blade is a fair performer who has shown steady progress in three starts, finishing a solid second over this trip on his penultimate outing for form figures of 452. The form line suggests he is competitive at this level without yet looking ahead of his mark. The Andrew Balding yard has a 14% strike rate from 436 runs at Doncaster while Oisin Murphy is aboard, though he is unproven on good to soft.
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7Sanbona Warrior40/100
Sanbona Warrior is a fair two-year-old who has already shown his liking for this track by winning here on his only visit. He has won at today's trip with form figures of 214, though he is stepping up in class and first-time headgear is now added. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Doncaster is a negative while he is unproven on good to soft.
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8Love Rome39/100
Love Rome has shown consistent placed form in three runs at this trip for figures of 322 and looks fairly treated on that bare record while stepping up in class. First-time headgear is an unknown but the yard's modest 9% strike rate at Doncaster offers little encouragement. He has enough history to suggest he will be competitive again without being the stand-out and is unproven on good to soft.
KTB verdict
Undiscovered stands out as the KTB Selection. He has already shown himself a useful performer by winning two of his three starts, including over this trip, and the drop in class from stall one looks ideal on the sharp Doncaster straight. The combination of a yard with a solid record at the track and his tendency to come from off the pace could play well if the race develops as expected. Rafe's Da Man and Fuel The Jet, both with recent wins and strong jockey bookings, represent the chief dangers, while Weekend Roar could improve for the longer trip if he handles the ground.
KTB Selection Undiscovered
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at Doncaster?
Sanbona Warrior has won here on his only visit to the track.
Which runners are proven on good to soft ground?
Only Midgham Man is proven, with one win from one run on good to soft.
Who is stepping up in class for this race?
Sanbona Warrior and Love Rome are both stepping up in class.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Sanbona Warrior and Love Rome are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Doncaster?
Fuel The Jet's trainer Tom Clover has a 20% strike rate at Doncaster from 50 runs.
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