1:37 Epsom
This Class 4 nursery handicap over 7f at Epsom features an eight-runner field of two-year-olds on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 53 and 39, indicating a competitive race where small margins and how the pace unfolds will be decisive. With a strong pace shape anticipated, the ability to settle and deliver late could prove advantageous on this track where low draws have historically dominated.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners in Rogue Imperial and Regal Tiger, both of whom tend to race prominently. This could set the race up for hold-up performers, with Telegraphic and Give Hand among those likely to be produced late. The key question is whether the early speed will collapse in the closing stages on this sharp Epsom circuit, allowing the hold-up horses to capitalise from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Rogue Imperial53/100
Rogue Imperial is a fair 2-year-old with solid placed form and a recent win over 6f. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The Archie Watson yard has a 14% strike rate at Epsom from 50 runs while Rossa Ryan is in the saddle. With a trainer and jockey record of 3/15 (20%) and A/E 1.31, the combination brings positive figures to the table. His run-style as a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace aligns with the expected strong pace, though he has shown no win or place from three runs on good ground and has no previous course form.
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2Telegraphic KTB Selection53/100
Telegraphic is a fair 2-year-old with a solid recent record of 4120 that includes a win at today's trip. He has the benefit of course experience and connections that know the track well. The yard's modest 4% strike-rate at Epsom is a clear negative, yet the trainer and jockey combination shows 23/202 (11%) with an A/E of 0.72. Dropping in class should help and his held-up run-style, usually producing effort late, looks well suited to the anticipated strong pace that could collapse. He remains unproven on good ground with no previous runs on it.
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3Clive The Writer51/100
Clive The Writer is a fair performer who has already won over today's 7f trip. Dropping back from a mile should suit after a mixed bag of form that includes a solid seventh last time. The trainer's 14% strike rate at Epsom from 22 runs gives some encouragement though the small sample on this ground leaves suitability unknown. With a prominent run-style, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he could be involved early in what is set to be a strong pace. He has no course form on record and remains unproven on good ground.
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4Give Hand50/100
Give Hand has shown consistent fair form without yet winning, placed third on debut and again when stepped up to this trip last time. The colt has already handled Epsom and the trip, though the small sample leaves his ideal ground open to question. Harry Charlton has a solid 18% strike-rate here from 11 runs while Lewis Edmunds is yet to score from his handful of rides at the track, with their combined record reading 15/89 (17%) and A/E 0.87. His held-up run-style, usually producing effort late, fits the race shape where a strong pace could favour those coming from off it. He is dropping in class and has a placed effort from one run at the course.
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5The Ginger Kid47/100
The Ginger Kid is a fair 2-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing second twice from three starts. He has already won on good ground and the yard’s modest 6% strike-rate at Epsom is offset by the fact Ashley Lewis has ridden here regularly, though their trainer and jockey record stands at 16/84 (19%) with an A/E of 1.05. He is dropping in class with a held-up run-style and stall nine is no help on a track where low numbers usually dominate.
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6Angel of Desire46/100
Angel of Desire is a modest performer who has shown some ability in two starts, finishing third over this trip on debut here at Epsom before a respectable fourth last time. The placed effort on this track is a positive though she remains lightly raced overall and has more to prove to trouble stronger opposition. Trainer Amanda Perrett has a 10% strike rate from 139 runs at Epsom while Cieren Fallon is aboard, with their record at 1/9 (11%). She is dropping in class and remains unproven on good ground.
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7Regal Tiger45/100
Regal Tiger has shown steady progress in three runs, finishing second twice after an opening fourth, and remains modestly rated. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a new question of him, while the going remains an unknown with only three starts on the board. Hugo Palmer has a 10% strike rate at Epsom from 39 runs and Oisin Murphy takes the ride, their record reading 66/271 (24%) with an A/E of 1.20. His front-running style could see him involved in the expected strong pace.
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8Leucothea39/100
Leucothea is a modest performer who has shown mixed form across seven runs with placings at this track on her second and third starts. She steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. Trainer Richard Hannon has an 11% strike rate from 202 runs at Epsom while jockey Sean Levey is 0-11 here, their combined record at 465/3544 (13%) with an A/E of 0.89. She is dropping in class with a held-up run-style and has one run on good with no win or place.
KTB verdict
The race revolves around how the strong pace develops, with hold-up horses potentially advantaged if the leaders go too hard early. Telegraphic is the KTB Selection. He brings a win at this trip, course experience, and a run-style that should suit the shape despite the yard's modest record at Epsom. His main dangers are Rogue Imperial, who brings a recent 6f success and a positive trainer-jockey combination, Clive The Writer, who has already won over 7f, and Give Hand, who is consistent, has handled the track, and is dropping in class.
KTB Selection Telegraphic
This is the narrative read of the 1:37 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Rogue Imperial and Regal Tiger, both noted as front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Telegraphic, Give Hand, The Ginger Kid, Angel of Desire and Leucothea.
Which horse has course experience at Epsom?
Give Hand has one run here finishing third, Angel of Desire has one run here finishing third, and Telegraphic has the benefit of course experience.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Leucothea.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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