4:45 Kempton (AW)
This Class 5 handicap over a mile at Kempton forms part of the London Mile Series and is run on standard to slow going. A field of ten three-year-olds lines up, with the majority holding an official rating around the 70 mark and recent form that suggests a competitive but largely modest contest. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, underlining that while several hold place claims, few stand out as having strong winning prospects on these terms.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one horse getting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the closers to reel in. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, meaning the race is likely to develop with a clear pace advantage to the one who makes it. The key question is whether that uncontested front-runner can dictate matters throughout or if the pack, racing from off the pace, can close the gap in the straight on this standard to slow surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Bofa Beach KTB Selection60/100
Bofa Beach is a modest performer who has shown consistency at this trip, placing in all three starts including a second here last time out. Stall two should help keep him handy on a track where his trainer operates at a steady 10% strike rate from a big sample. The yard's record with David Egan reads 26 wins from 191 rides for an A/E of 1.26 and a healthy level-stakes profit of +£53.23. He is lightly raced overall so the going remains an unknown, though he has placed once at Kempton on his sole previous visit. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the KTB Selection and looks to have the right profile for a race run with a clear leader.
-
2Piscean Star59/100
Piscean Star is a modest performer who has won once in two runs at Kempton and handles standard to slow going. Ed Dunlop's 10 percent strike rate from 805 runs here is below par while Callum Rodriguez has a solid record at the track with a 16% strike rate and A/E of 1.11. The combination of trainer and jockey shows 3 wins from 16 rides for an A/E of 1.27. He steps up to an untested 1m today after recent efforts over 7f, having won here previously from two starts at the course. Usually held up, he brings course-winning form and a proven ability on the surface that could see him involved if the trip suits.
-
3Magic Box55/100
Magic Box is a modest performer who has won his only previous start here at Kempton. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having looked stretched at 7f last time, so the extra distance is an open question. William Haggas has an 18% strike rate from 765 runs at the track while Cieren Fallon is aboard, though the trainer-jockey partnership shows 222 wins from 976 rides for an A/E of 0.95. He has won on standard to slow going from one attempt and took the race on his sole Kempton visit. Usually held up, he has course-winning form to his name but the step up in trip adds uncertainty.
-
4Unionville53/100
Unionville is a modest performer who has won once in six runs at Kempton and placed on his only previous attempt at this trip. He showed his best effort when winning a similar race here in July before a lesser run last time, and the standard-to-slow surface has seen him competitive without quite getting his head in front. Michael Attwater's yard has a modest 5% strike rate at the track from 988 runs while Kieren Fox has a 9% strike rate here. The trainer-jockey record stands at 25 wins from 451 rides for an A/E of 0.78. Usually held up, he brings course-winning form but the yard's record at Kempton adds a note of caution.
-
5Wind Summer53/100
Wind Summer is a modest performer who won over this trip here in January before a clear career-best when landing a similar race at Lingfield last month. Has solid placed efforts on his other Kempton run and the booking of Jack Mitchell is a plus given the jockey's 12% strike rate at the track. The trainer's modest 8% record here from only 12 runners adds a note of caution, though the yard steps up in class today. He has no win or place from two runs on standard to slow going yet has won here from two starts at the course. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could be the one to take advantage of the lone-leader shape.
-
6Footstepinthewoods53/100
Footstepinthewoods is a modest performer who has won twice over this trip from five attempts and arrives in decent form having landed a similar race last time. First run at Kempton on standard to slow ground leaves both those aspects unproven. Trainer Emma Lavelle has a solid 12% strike rate here from 93 runs while Jason Watson also knows the track. Usually held up, he brings recent winning form but has no course form on record.
-
7Sail On Sailor49/100
Sail On Sailor is a modest performer who has won three times this year but has struggled since the last success. Has place form over this course and trip and is back at a distance that has suited in the past. Trainer's modest record here and the recent decline in form both count against him. Usually held up, he has placed once from three runs on standard to slow going and has been placed but not won from three starts at Kempton.
-
8Berkshire Boom48/100
Berkshire Boom is a modest performer who has shown consistency on AW without winning. Placed twice at this track including a solid second over 1m, and has also placed at today's trip. Trainer has a respectable 15% strike rate at Kempton from a big sample, though the horse remains unproven on standard to slow ground. Usually held up, he has course-placing form but no win at the track.
-
9Eljowhary45/100
Eljowhary is a modest performer who has failed to build on some early promise and has been well held in three starts since a visor was applied. Drops back to 1m today having looked stretched by 1m2f last time, though he has already been beaten twice at this trip. First-time headgear is now tried and the yard has a modest 9% strike rate at the track from a large sample. Usually held up, he was well beaten on his only previous visit to Kempton.
-
10Chelio39/100
Chelio is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in recent runs and was well held on his only previous visit to Kempton. He has placed twice at this trip but has failed to win in eight starts overall. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track adds little confidence here. Usually held up, he has one run on standard to slow going without placing.
KTB verdict
Bofa Beach is the KTB Selection. He has shown consistency at this trip with places in all three starts, including a second here last time out, and stall two should help keep him well positioned in a race where the pace shape favours a clear leader. The yard operates at a steady 10% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample and his lightly raced profile adds interest despite the going being unproven. Main dangers are likely to come from Wind Summer, who could take the uncontested lead and has a recent career-best to his name, and Piscean Star, who has already won at the track and handles the surface. Magic Box and Unionville also have course form and cannot be ruled out in a race where the held-up brigade will need the leader to come back to them.
KTB Selection Bofa Beach
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in class?
Wind Summer is stepping up in class.
Who is the only front-runner in the field?
Wind Summer tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Eljowhary is wearing first-time headgear.
How many horses have previous winning form at Kempton?
Piscean Star, Magic Box, Unionville and Wind Summer have all won at Kempton.
Which horse has the strongest trainer-jockey combination record at the track?
Berkshire Boom has a trainer-jockey record of 22 wins from 95 rides for an A/E of 1.27.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies