5:15 Kempton (AW)
This Class 4 maiden over 6f at Kempton on standard to slow ground features a field of eight three-year-olds, several with placed form but no winners among them. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Perola and One of The Boys sharing the highest mark of 59 while the remainder sit in the low-to-mid 40s. Most of the principals are held-up types stepping up or down in class, and the race lacks depth with several runners carrying limited experience or modest recent efforts.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, as Vannessa is the only front-runner in the field and should be allowed an uncontested lead. The remaining seven runners are all held-up types who will be produced late, meaning the race is likely to be run at a steady gallop up front with the field stalking from off the pace. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can dictate matters and prove hard to peg back on this surface, or whether one of the closers can time their effort to reel her in late.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Perola59/100
Perola is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form, finishing no worse than third in four of her five starts. She drops back to 6f today after her latest run over 7f, a trip at which she has been placed twice without winning. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample while she has already placed here on her one visit. She acts on standard to slow ground having been placed on her only start on the surface. From draw 1 she will be held up and produced late, though the run-style evidence is limited. Trainer Richard Hughes and jockey Finley Marsh combine with a 16% strike rate from 1017 rides.
-
2One of The Boys KTB Selection59/100
One of The Boys is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form, finishing no worse than third in four of his five starts including a third here over this trip. He acts on the surface though the small sample means his exact going preference remains unclear. Trainer Michael Bell has a modest 10% strike-rate at Kempton from a large sample while Hector Crouch is aboard with a 12% strike rate at the track. From a wide draw of 8 he will be held up and produce his effort late, a run-style he has shown with high confidence. His official rating of 75 is the highest in the field and he looks sure to be in the mix once again.
-
3Ravishing49/100
Ravishing showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip. The Roger Varian yard has a solid 21% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample. With only one run on the clock and no meaningful going or course data available, this remains very much an unknown quantity. She drops in class for this assignment and will be held up in the race, though the run-style evidence is limited. Jack Mitchell takes the ride as the pair look to build on that encouraging debut.
-
4Oceti49/100
Oceti is a modest performer on his figures with a string of ordinary efforts since a promising debut sixth. He drops back to 6f today having looked stretched over 7f last time, though he has already tried this trip once without success. Trainer Richard Hannon has a solid 10% strike rate at Kempton from a huge sample of rides. He will be held up and produce his effort late with high confidence in that run style. With no experience of standard to slow ground or the course, he brings plenty of unknowns despite his official rating of 72.
-
5Katie Louise47/100
Katie Louise is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so far. Her pedigree and sales background are the main clues available and the low data confidence means any assessment has to stay tentative. Martin Dunne has an 8% strike rate from 38 runs at Kempton while Oisin Murphy takes the ride.
-
6Vannessa44/100
Vannessa has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip, finishing seventh then sixth without suggesting she is ready to win a Class 4. The yard's 7% strike rate from 430 runs at Kempton reflects limited success here. With so few runs on the clock and the going sample too small to judge, this remains a very tentative profile. She is the sole front-runner and should be allowed an uncontested lead.
-
7Amorist43/100
Amorist showed some promise when third on debut over this trip and returns in first-time headgear. The yard has a 0% strike-rate from 14 runs at Kempton. With only one run on the clock and a small sample on this surface the form must be treated with caution. She steps up in class and will be held up.
-
8Savvi Row40/100
Savvi Row is a limited performer who has struggled since an early promise, finishing well beaten in three starts this year. He has already tried this trip twice without success and was well held on his only previous run here. Trainer has a solid 10% strike-rate at Kempton from a large sample. He steps up in class and will be held up.
KTB verdict
One of The Boys is the KTB Selection. He has shown the best level of consistent placed form in the field, including a placing here over this trip, and his official rating of 75 sets the standard. The race should be run to suit him given the shape and his held-up style, with the uncontested lead likely to set things up for a late closer. Perola brings the most solid placed record and course experience while Ravishing and Oceti add unknowns that could see them improve, but the selection looks to hold the strongest hand on what he has shown to date.
KTB Selection One of The Boys
This is the narrative read of the 5:15 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Vannessa is the only front-runner and should be allowed an uncontested lead according to the pace shape.
How many runners have previous placed form at Kempton?
Perola has been placed on her one visit and One of The Boys has been placed once here.
Which horse is stepping up in class from a debut third?
Amorist showed some promise when third on debut and returns stepping up in class in first-time headgear.
Who has the highest official rating in the race?
One of The Boys has an official rating of 75.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All four principals are held-up types, though the confidence in that run style varies.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies