4:05 Hereford
This Class 5 mares' handicap hurdle at Hereford over 2m3f147y on good to firm ground features a compact field of seven. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Miracles Do Happen just heading the list on 60, followed closely by Lady Dapple Rose on 59, while Siorai and Mahon Falls sit on 52 and 51 respectively. Overall the numbers point to a competitive tactical race where recent form, trip suitability and the yard's local record will carry significant weight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and is rated with medium confidence, suggesting a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy will pay. Most of the field, including the top four principals, tend to race held up or in mid-division, so the key question is which horse can time its effort best off what is likely to be a modest gallop. With so many runners settling off the pace, the ability to quicken or stay on strongly in the straight will be at a premium.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Miracles Do Happen KTB Selection60/100
Miracles Do Happen arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit Score of 60. A useful performer, she won a handicap at Newton Abbot last time and comes here in decent form, with recent figures of 1-8P81 underlining her competitiveness at this level. She has shown ability on good to firm ground with one win and a place from three starts, although she was only sixth when tried here previously. The Billy Aprahamian yard posts a 22% strike rate at Hereford with an A/E of 1.15 from nine runs, while Sam Twiston-Davies brings a 19% strike rate and A/E of 1.03 from 231 rides at the track. Usually held up, she produces her effort late, and while the step up in trip poses a fresh question she looks the one to beat.
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2Lady Dapple Rose59/100
Lady Dapple Rose is rated just behind on a KTB Fit Score of 59. A useful mare, she has shown enough in recent starts, including figures of 835-F9, to suggest she can be competitive at this level. She steps up in trip for the first time, which asks a new question, and she remains unproven on good to firm ground. The Ben Pauling yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Hereford from 85 runs with an A/E of 0.98, while claiming jockey Beau Morgan boasts a 25% strike rate and A/E of 2.43 from eight rides at the track. Typically settling in midfield, she will need to prove her stamina and surface preference if she is to trouble the selection.
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3Siorai52/100
Siorai carries a KTB Fit Score of 52. A useful performer on the balance of ratings, his recent form of 226-42 includes two seconds and a fourth from his last three starts. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question while he remains unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer Harry Derham has a 20% strike rate at Hereford from 15 runs with an A/E of 0.78, and jockey Paul O'Brien, who is making his first appearance at the track, partners a yard that shows a 23% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.97 from 559 runs. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a steadily-run contest.
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4Mahon Falls51/100
Mahon Falls is next on a KTB Fit Score of 51. A useful performer on the balance of his ratings, his recent form of 2337-3 includes three seconds from his last four completed starts. He drops back in trip from 3m2f to 2m3f, having failed to place in his only previous try at this distance, while his sole run on good to firm ground also brought no win or place. The Katy Price yard has a 6% strike rate at Hereford from 77 runs with an A/E of 0.68, and Shane Quinlan rides for a stable that shows an 8% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.69 from 129 runs. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he is dropping in class but has questions to answer on both trip and ground.
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5Zaraquelle42/100
Zaraquelle is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 42. A useful performer on the balance of her ratings and race history, she steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f, which asks a fresh question, and she has shown little on her only previous start on good to firm ground. The James Owen yard has an 8% strike rate at Hereford from 13 runs with an A/E of 0.38, and she is stepping up in class.
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6Yanka Blue42/100
Yanka Blue carries a KTB Fit Score of 42. A fair performer who has been placed on good to firm but is still without a win after 18 starts, she steps up in trip today having failed to score in four previous attempts at this distance, which asks a fresh question. The Barry Murphy yard has a 0% strike rate at Hereford from three runs, though the small sample makes firm judgement difficult.
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7Barafundle Bay39/100
Barafundle Bay is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 39. A fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts, he steps back up in trip having shown no real spark at shorter distances recently, though he has won on good to firm ground in the past. The Christian Williams yard has an 8% strike rate at Hereford from 80 runs with an A/E of 0.79.
KTB verdict
Miracles Do Happen is the KTB Selection. She arrives in decent form after a recent Newton Abbot success, boasts a good record on good to firm ground and is trained by a yard with a solid local record at Hereford. Her held-up style should suit the expected steadily-run race, and the combination of recent winning form and the Aprahamian/Twiston-Davies axis makes her the one to beat. Lady Dapple Rose is the obvious danger given her close Fit Score and the Pauling yard's Hereford strength, while Siorai and Mahon Falls cannot be dismissed on their useful ratings and placed form, though both have more to prove on the ground and at the trip.
KTB Selection Miracles Do Happen
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Hereford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hereford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hereford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Hereford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent winning form?
Miracles Do Happen, who won a handicap at Newton Abbot last time with form figures of 1-8P81.
How many of the field are proven on good to firm ground?
Miracles Do Happen has one win and a place from three starts on good to firm, Yanka Blue has been placed twice from three starts on the surface, Barafundle Bay has one win from two starts on good to firm, while Mahon Falls and Zaraquelle have each had one unplaced run.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Hereford?
Billy Aprahamian has a 22% strike rate at Hereford with an A/E of 1.15 from nine runs.
What is the expected pace scenario and its implication?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, with most runners held up or in mid-division.
Which horses are stepping up or down in trip?
Lady Dapple Rose, Siorai, Yanka Blue and Zaraquelle are all stepping up in trip for the first time, while Mahon Falls is dropping back in trip from 3m2f and Barafundle Bay is stepping back up in trip.
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