1:40 Gowran Park
A 7f nursery handicap for two-year-olds at Gowran Park on yielding to soft ground looks an open and modest affair, with the entire field carrying official ratings between 42 and 59. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched, the top horse rated only 60, underlining the level of the contest and the scope for improvement or regression among these largely exposed juveniles. With no obvious pace influence to take the race by the scruff, the outcome is likely to hinge on tactical positioning and which runners handle the conditions best.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy to the pace should prove an advantage. Most of the field are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, which could leave the race vulnerable to one or two who can race more prominently and avoid trouble in a steadily-run affair. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off a muddling gallop on this ground, or if those with the ability to race handily will hold the aces.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Outside Sun KTB Selection60/100
Outside Sun is the KTB Selection. Rated 57 on official figures, this twice-raced maiden has form figures of 000 and is yet to show significant ability, but is given a KTB Fit rating of 60 which places it clear at the top of the numbers. The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 6.3 from only two runs, a standout trainer read that commands respect, while jockey Leigh Roche has a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.97 from 369 rides. It is held up, usually producing its effort late, though that assessment is based on limited evidence and low confidence. The horse is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has no course form on record, but is taken to capitalise on the positive trainer signal in what looks a modest event.
-
2Dear Theodosia53/100
Dear Theodosia is rated 52 on official figures with form figures of 0099. The KTB Fit rating of 53 places it second in the numbers, though it has shown only modest ability to date. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 2.24 from 17 runs, a positive trainer read, while the jockey has a 4% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.68 from 180 rides and the pair have a combined record of 2/52 with an A/E of 0.88. Usually held up and producing its effort late with medium confidence, it is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has no course form. The combination of the trainer's record at the venue and the Fit score keeps it firmly in the picture.
-
3Winnie's Wish50/100
Winnie's Wish carries an official rating of 57 with form figures of 8086. Rated 50 on the KTB Fit scale, it has shown modest ability at best but now tries first-time headgear in a bid to spark improvement. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.93 from 328 runs and the jockey has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.85 from 524 rides; together they show 83/909 with an A/E of 0.78. It is usually held up, producing its effort late with medium confidence, and has one run on yielding to soft ground without winning or placing. With no course form on record, the headgear is an interesting addition for a yard that knows the track well.
-
4How Now49/100
How Now is rated 53 on official figures with form figures of 060. The KTB Fit rating of 49 puts it in the mix among a modest bunch, though it has shown only limited ability so far. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1 from 23 runs and the jockey has a 4% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.67 from 114 rides; the pair have a combined record of 5/33 with an A/E of 1.74. Usually held up with limited evidence and low confidence, it is unproven on yielding to soft ground. It has run once here, finishing 13th with no win or place, but the positive trainer and jockey combined figures at the venue mean it cannot be entirely dismissed.
-
5Littlepacer49/100
Littlepacer is rated 53 with form figures of 80035. The KTB Fit rating of 49 keeps it in contention in a race where the principals are closely matched on the numbers. The trainer has an 18% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.11 from 345 runs and the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.07 from 353 rides; together they show 223/1684 with an A/E of 0.85. Usually held up and producing its effort late with medium confidence, it remains unproven on yielding to soft ground and has no course form on record. The strong trainer record at the venue and the jockey's effectiveness here make this an interesting contender from stall one.
-
6Silk Twist49/100
Silk Twist is rated 59 on official figures with form figures of 0709 and a KTB Fit of 49. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead with medium confidence, it has one run on yielding to soft without placing. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.69 and the jockey has a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96; together they show 2/31 with an A/E of 0.56. No course form on record.
-
7Cudawudashuda45/100
Cudawudashuda is rated 59 with form figures of 6742 and a KTB Fit of 45. Usually held up with medium confidence, it is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has no course form. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0 from six runs and the jockey has a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.78; together they show 1/12 with an A/E of 0.91.
-
8Stormy Dawn43/100
Stormy Dawn is rated 56 with form figures of 0063 and a KTB Fit of 43. Typically settles in midfield with medium confidence and is unproven on yielding to soft ground with no course form. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.57 and the jockey has a 10% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.86; together they show 2/21 with an A/E of 0.93.
-
9Tina Tereshkova42/100
Tina Tereshkova is rated 42 with form figures of 09600 and a KTB Fit of 42. Usually held up with high confidence, it tries first-time headgear and is unproven on yielding to soft. It has run once here, finishing sixth with no win or place. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.24 and the jockey has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.6.
-
10Dropping Dimes40/100
Dropping Dimes is rated 50 with form figures of 0993 and a KTB Fit of 40. Usually held up with limited evidence and low confidence, it is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has no course form. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.88 and the jockey has a 5% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.73; together they show 2/60 with an A/E of 0.74.
-
11Magna Fortuna40/100
Magna Fortuna is rated 50 with form figures of 0000 and a KTB Fit of 40. Usually held up with medium confidence, it has one run on yielding to soft without placing and has no course form. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.89 and the jockey has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.8; together they show 0/9.
-
12Rathbran Lady37/100
Rathbran Lady is rated 43 with form figures of 075059 and a KTB Fit of 37. Usually held up with medium confidence, it tries first-time headgear and is unproven on yielding to soft ground with no course form. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.75 and the jockey has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.06; together they show 46/579 with an A/E of 0.93.
KTB verdict
Outside Sun is the KTB Selection. It tops the Fit ratings at 60 in a race where the numbers are modest and closely matched, and the trainer's exceptional 50% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 6.3 from two runs stands out sharply. While unproven on the ground, held up and with no course form, the combination of the selection's position at the head of the numbers and the powerful trainer signal at the venue makes it the one to beat. The main dangers are Dear Theodosia, who has the second-highest Fit rating and a strong trainer record at the track, and Winnie's Wish, who brings the first-time headgear and a yard that knows its way around here. Littlepacer and How Now complete the main principals, each with trainer stats at Gowran that demand respect in such an even contest.
KTB Selection Outside Sun
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:07 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Outside Sun | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Dear Theodosia | 40/1 | BoyleSports |
| Winnie's Wish | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| How Now | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Littlepacer | 7/4 | Bet365 |
| Silk Twist | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Cudawudashuda | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Stormy Dawn | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Tina Tereshkova | 50/1 | BoyleSports |
| Dropping Dimes | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Magna Fortuna | 28/1 | BetTom |
| Rathbran Lady | 18/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 1:40 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Gowran Park racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Outside Sun rated top on KTB Fit despite having form figures of 000?
The KTB Fit rating of 60 places it clearly highest in the supplied numbers, ahead of Dear Theodosia on 53, and the trainer's 50% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 6.3 is a decisive positive factor.
How is the race expected to be run given the pace shape?
It lacks a leader so is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, with most runners being held-up types who will come from off the pace.
Which horses are trying headgear for the first time?
Winnie's Wish, Tina Tereshkova and Rathbran Lady are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest record at Gowran Park among the principals?
K Smith, trainer of Outside Sun, has a 50% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 6.3 from two runs.
Are any of these runners proven on yielding to soft ground?
Only Winnie's Wish (one run, no win or place), Silk Twist (one run, no win or place) and Magna Fortuna (one run, no win or place) have experience of the surface; the remainder are unproven.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies