3:55 Doncaster
This Class 3 British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes over 7f 213y at Doncaster on soft ground features a field of ten two-year-olds with very limited racecourse evidence between them. Five of the runners are debutants while the remainder bring minimal form, resulting in low data confidence across the board and KTB Fit Scores tightly clustered between 51 and 42. The KTB numbers highlight strong trainer and jockey combinations from the major yards, with several well-related pedigrees on show, but underline that ability remains largely unproven for all.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence owing to insufficient run-style data across the field. Seagoing is the only horse with a defined run-style, racing prominently and usually handy or close to the lead. How the race develops will therefore be difficult to read in advance, and the key question is which of these lightly raced or unraced juveniles can show the highest level of ability on their first or second start.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Manitoba51/100
Manitoba is a debutant with limited pedigree information. The dam has produced just one previous runner that failed to win. Connections are in solid form at Doncaster with a 23 percent strike rate from 169 runs. The trainer and jockey combination posts a 22 percent strike rate overall. By Sea The Stars, the sire has a 15 percent overall win rate. No course win on record and the market will have its say in a field of ten.
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2Age Of Reason KTB Selection51/100
Age Of Reason is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 23 percent strike rate at Doncaster from 247 runs, in line with their overall figure. The dam has had just one previous runner that failed to win, while this colt cost a significant sum as a yearling. Connections are strong but with no racecourse evidence and low data confidence the colt's ability remains entirely unknown. The trainer and jockey record stands at 30 percent. By Lope De Vega, the sire has a 13 percent overall win rate. No course win on record.
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3Laurel Crown51/100
Laurel Crown is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 14 percent strike rate at Doncaster from 461 runs, in line with their overall figure. He is a half-brother to Listed winner Perfect Alibi and the dam has produced two other winners from four runners. Data confidence is low as this is his first run. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 19 percent strike rate. By Dubawi, the sire has a 17 percent overall win rate. No course win on record.
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4Zajal50/100
Zajal is a newcomer from the Charlie Appleby yard who carries a strong pedigree as a half-brother to Group 2 winner Saba Desert with the dam also producing two other winners. The yard posts a 23 percent strike rate at Doncaster from 247 runs which sits in line with their overall record. Low data confidence means the rest remains unproven on debut. The trainer and jockey record here is 14 percent. By Zarak, the sire has a 15 percent overall win rate. No course win on record.
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5Seagoing49/100
Seagoing has shown little in two starts so far with an 80 recent form line and remains lightly raced overall. He drops back in trip today having already tried this distance once without success while the family record is strong as a full brother to Group 1 winner Johanna Walsh. Trainer at Doncaster has a 12 percent strike rate from 231 runs which sits below their 20 percent at other courses and data confidence is low given the small sample. He is the only horse with a defined run-style, racing prominently. No runs on soft so unproven on the ground. The trainer and jockey record stands at 21 percent.
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6Vallejo49/100
Vallejo is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 14 percent strike rate at Doncaster from 461 runs, in line with their overall record. He is a half-brother to Group 3 winner Dan's Dream and comes from a dam who has produced three winners from five other runners. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the picture remains tentative.
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7Wellington Square47/100
Wellington Square is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 15 percent strike rate at Doncaster from 420 runs, in line with their overall figure. He is a half-brother to Listed winner Saxon Street and the dam has already produced another winner. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the colt's ability remains an unknown on debut.
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8Entrust46/100
Entrust makes his debut for the Gosden yard who have a 23 percent strike rate at Doncaster from 169 runs, in line with their record elsewhere. He cost a significant sum as a yearling and is out of a dam whose other runners include a Group 2 winner. With no racecourse evidence and low data confidence the colt remains an unknown quantity on soft ground.
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9Aston Bay45/100
Aston Bay is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The yard operates at a 9 percent strike rate here which sits in line with its overall record. Connections are unproven with this type of two-year-old at the track.
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10Silver Bay42/100
Silver Bay is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard's 6 percent strike rate at Doncaster from 78 runs sits in line with their overall record. Data confidence is low so the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background.
KTB verdict
The KTB Selection is Age Of Reason. The colt represents the powerful Charlie Appleby yard which posts a 23 percent strike rate at the track in line with its overall record, is well bought as a yearling, and benefits from the services of William Buick. With no racecourse evidence the ability remains unknown but the combination of yard, jockey and pedigree gives every chance he can make a winning debut. Main dangers are the well-related newcomers Zajal from the same stable and Laurel Crown, along with Manitoba from the in-form Gosden team and Seagoing who at least has some racecourse experience.
KTB Selection Age Of Reason
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:25am, 23 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Manitoba | 14/1 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| Age Of Reason | 5/2 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| Laurel Crown | 9/1 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| Zajal | 6/1 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| Seagoing | 250/1 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| Vallejo | 25/1 | Bet Victor, 1:09am |
| Wellington Square | 12/1 | Bet Victor, 1:09am |
| Entrust | 5/4 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| Aston Bay | 33/1 | Bet Victor, 1:09am |
| Silver Bay | 33/1 | Bet Victor, 1:09am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Doncaster racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest pedigree among the debutants?
Zajal is a half-brother to Group 2 winner Saba Desert with the dam also producing two other winners, while Laurel Crown is a half-brother to Listed winner Perfect Alibi.
How many runners have previous racecourse experience?
Only Seagoing has raced before, with recent form figures of 80.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Doncaster in this race?
John & Thady Gosden and Charlie Appleby both operate at a 23 percent strike rate at Doncaster.
Who is the only horse with a known run-style?
Seagoing is the only horse with a defined run-style, racing prominently and usually handily on or close to the lead.
Which sire has the highest overall win rate on the given going?
Dubawi has a 17 percent overall win rate.
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