4:30 Doncaster
This Class 4 handicap division at Doncaster over 6f on soft ground brings together a field of 13 three-year-olds and older horses where the KTB Fit ratings point to a tight contest at the top. Bone Marra tops the KTB numbers on 61 with a string of consistent efforts, while Topwarrior, Big Harry, Rikki Tiki Tavi and Woven follow closely between 59 and 53. The race is run on genuinely testing soft ground that will place a premium on both stamina and tractability, and the KTB assessments highlight several runners with questions to answer either on the surface, at the track or in current form.
How the race shapes up
A genuinely-run race is expected with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, creating a fair test. Rikki Tiki Tavi is the most obvious leader from his prominent run-style while Topwarrior, Big Harry and Aberama Gold should be on or near the pace from their handy positioning. The key question is whether the prominent group can dictate matters or if the race will fall apart enough for the hold-up performers such as Woven, Art Lover, Novello Lad and Alpha Magic to close in late off a strong gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bone Marra KTB Selection61/100
Bone Marra is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 012335 and an official rating of 85. He has won at this trip from six attempts and has been placed once on soft ground, though he now tries first-time headgear. Dropping in class looks a positive and he typically settles in midfield before producing his effort. The yard records a 19% strike rate at Doncaster from 16 runs while Dylan Hogan has an 8% record at the track from 50 rides. Bone Marra has no previous course form but his placed effort on soft ground suggests he can be competitive under these conditions.
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2Topwarrior59/100
Topwarrior is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip but has been out of form for much of the year with a string of poor efforts. His recent form reads 000824 and he has run twice here without placing. He goes on soft ground having won once and placed twice from three starts on it. The trainer's 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 420 runs is in line with his record elsewhere and Rossa Ryan has a 13% strike rate at the track from 221 rides. Connections will hope the prominent run-style can see him back to his best from stall 6.
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3Big Harry55/100
Big Harry is a fair 3-year-old who has won both starts at this trip including a course success here last time. He brings solid recent form of 321-61 and an official rating of 82 into this race. The dam has had two other runners, none of them a winner. He usually races handily on or close to the lead and has been placed once on soft ground without winning. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate at Doncaster from 12 runs and Oisin Orr has a 6% strike rate at the track from 84 rides.
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4Rikki Tiki Tavi54/100
Rikki Tiki Tavi is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning a minor event over this trip last time with form figures of 00-001. He has only run once on soft ground without placing and now makes a first appearance at Doncaster. Connections are operating below their usual strike rate with the trainer on 7% at the track from 911 runs while Kevin Stott has a 12% strike rate at Doncaster from 269 rides. The front-running style should ensure he is prominent early but the going remains a question.
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5Woven53/100
Woven is a fair performer who has won at this trip and at Doncaster itself from nine runs here. He has a 7% strike rate record for Michael Dods at the track which sits below the yard's 10% at other courses while Oisin Murphy has a 16% strike rate at Doncaster from 327 rides. Soft ground has produced two wins and six places from 14 starts but his recent form of 729597 leaves him with plenty to find from stall 9 of 13. He usually races held up and produces his effort late.
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6Star Material53/100
Star Material is a fair performer who arrives in modest recent form after a string of unplaced efforts with figures of 983R07. He has placed on soft ground and at today's trip though without winning either, while the drop back from 7½f asks a fresh question. The trainer operates at an 11% strike rate here in line with their record elsewhere and he is held up in rear.
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7Art Lover53/100
Art Lover is a fair performer who has run to a similar level on several occasions this year without winning with form of 242385. He has won at this trip but showed little at Doncaster on his only visit and has no experience on soft ground. The yard's 18% strike rate at the track from 531 runs is in line with their record elsewhere and he is held up with a high degree of confidence in that run-style.
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8Novello Lad51/100
Novello Lad is a fair performer who has won three times at this track from 12 runs. He has won at this trip but is 0-3 on soft ground and his recent form has been poor with figures of 180006. The trainer's 6% strike rate here from 411 runs is in line with his record elsewhere and he is typically held up.
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9First Time50/100
First Time is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a string of placed efforts and holds an official rating of 81. He has placed once from two runs at Doncaster and drops back to 6f today having won at the trip earlier in his career. The yard record an 8% strike rate here from 40 runs in line with their overall figure and he typically settles in midfield.
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10Aberama Gold46/100
Aberama Gold is a fair 9-year-old who has been consistent this year with recent form of 352202 and holds an official rating of 77. He has placed on soft ground three times from seven starts and has four wins from 43 runs at this trip, though his record at Doncaster reads placed once from five runs with no victory. The trainer's 9% strike rate at the track is below their 12% at other courses and he races prominently.
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11Charlie Mason46/100
Charlie Mason is a modest performer who has won once from three runs at Doncaster and holds a 2-from-6 record on soft ground. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over five times from 31 starts, though his recent form of 806362 is ordinary. The trainer has a 7% strike rate here from 227 runs, in line with his overall record, and he typically settles in midfield.
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12Stirrup Cup41/100
Stirrup Cup is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late without winning with form of 506433. Three soft-ground wins give him a solid base on today's going though he was well held in his only previous run here. The trainer's 7% strike rate at Doncaster is below his overall mark and the step back up to 6f asks a fresh question while he is held up.
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13Alpha Magic40/100
Alpha Magic is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third here on his penultimate start. He has won three times at this trip but is unproven on soft ground and now has to overcome the widest draw in a field of 13. The Easterby yard's 6% strike rate at Doncaster is in line with their record elsewhere and he is held up.
KTB verdict
Bone Marra is the KTB Selection. He arrives with the strongest recent record in the field and a clear drop in class while first-time headgear may help him settle better in midfield before delivering his effort. The soft ground is within his compass given a prior placing on it and the yard's respectable record at Doncaster adds further encouragement. His main dangers are Big Harry, who brings a course win and strong 3yo form, and the potentially well-treated Rikki Tiki Tavi if the front-running pace holds up. Topwarrior and Woven are the other principals who could figure if the race shape plays to their strengths.
KTB Selection Bone Marra
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:25am, 23 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Bone Marra | 8/1 | Bet365, 1:23am |
| Topwarrior | 11/2 | 7Bet, 1:23am |
| Big Harry | 15/8 | Bet365, 1:23am |
| Rikki Tiki Tavi | 18/1 | BetMGM, 1:23am |
| Woven | 12/1 | BetMGM, 1:23am |
| Star Material | 66/1 | Bet Victor, 1:23am |
| Art Lover | 7/1 | Bet365, 1:23am |
| Novello Lad | 40/1 | Bet365, 1:23am |
| First Time | 9/1 | Bet365, 1:23am |
| Aberama Gold | 14/1 | Bet365, 1:23am |
| Charlie Mason | 9/1 | Bet365, 1:23am |
| Stirrup Cup | 25/1 | Bet Victor, 1:23am |
| Alpha Magic | 12/1 | 7Bet, 1:23am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:30 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Doncaster racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Bone Marra tries first-time headgear.
Who has the best course record at Doncaster in the field?
Novello Lad has won three times at this track from 12 runs.
Which runner is unproven on soft ground but has course placings?
Alpha Magic is unproven on soft ground but has finished third here on his penultimate start.
How many wins has Big Harry recorded at this trip?
Big Harry has won both starts at this trip.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Doncaster for the selection Bone Marra?
The yard records a 19% strike rate at Doncaster from 16 runs.
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