4:05 Cheltenham
The 4:05 at Cheltenham is a Class 2 novices' steeplechase over three and a quarter miles on good to soft ground. A compact field of six features several high-class performers according to the KTB numbers, with four of them rated within a narrow 65-61 Fit Score band. The KTB Selection sits at the head of the market with a 65 Fit Score and recent winning form, though questions remain around trip, ground and course for several contenders.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace confidently predicted, the race is set to be run at a searching gallop from the outset. Multiple front-runners including Butch Cassidy, Catchintsavo, Follow Your Luck and Kasino des Mottes are likely to contest the lead early, while Derryhassen Paddy and Turndlightsdownlow race prominently just behind. This shape raises the strong possibility of the pace collapsing in the latter stages, which would play into the hands of any horse capable of rallying from off the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Butch Cassidy KTB Selection65/100
Butch Cassidy is a high-class performer who arrives in excellent order after two clear wins this season. He steps up in trip today having shown nothing at 3m1f on his only previous attempt and remains unproven on good to soft ground. The yard and jockey both operate at their normal level here. Henry de Bromhead's 12% strike rate at Cheltenham from 362 runs and Darragh O'Keeffe's 8% from 96 rides reflect their usual performance at the track. As a habitual front-runner he is sure to be prominent in what is expected to be a strong early gallop. Recent form of 35P-11 underlines his current wellbeing.
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2Derryhassen Paddy64/100
Derryhassen Paddy is a high-class performer who showed his ability with two wins from his first three starts and a solid second on his most recent outing. He has already placed on his one run at Cheltenham and steps up in trip today to a distance that remains an unknown. The yard records a 10% strike rate at the track from ten runs. Derek Fox brings a 13% strike rate at Cheltenham from 40 rides while the trainer-jockey combination shows a 12% record from 233 runs together. Racing prominently with high-confidence, he should be well placed to track the expected strong pace. His placed effort on good to soft and third at this course add to his credentials.
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3Catchintsavo62/100
Catchintsavo is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of 21312- and an official rating of 142. He has won twice from six runs on good to soft ground and has been placed when tried at this trip. The yard's 9% strike rate at Cheltenham is below their record elsewhere and he was well held on his only previous run here. Sam Twiston-Davies has a 10% strike rate at the track from 779 rides and the trainer-jockey partnership shows 20% from 282 runs. As a front-runner with medium-confidence he will be to the fore in a race likely to be strongly run. Dropping in class looks a positive.
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4Follow Your Luck61/100
Follow Your Luck is a high-class performer who has won three of his four starts and looked smart when landing a useful handicap here over two and a half miles last time. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question while the yard's 13 percent strike rate at Cheltenham from 24 runs sits in line with their record elsewhere. Brian Hughes has a 5% strike rate at the track from 182 rides. A front-runner with medium confidence, he will be prominent early in what is set to be a strong pace. He boasts a perfect two-from-two record on good to soft and his family line shows his full brother Intent Approach won once from 12 runs while the dam has produced one other winner.
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5Turndlightsdownlow55/100
Turndlightsdownlow is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of 1222-2 and an official rating of 127. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance on his one attempt, while the ground is unproven as he has no runs on good to soft. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Cheltenham from 282 runs in line with his record elsewhere and the jockey has an 8% strike rate from 13 rides here.
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6Kasino des Mottes49/100
Kasino des Mottes is high-class on his best figures and has solid course connections yet has only managed two fifth-place finishes from two runs at Cheltenham. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m4f and the dam's limited record as a producer adds no encouragement. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% and 7% strike rate here respectively which sits in line with their records elsewhere.
KTB verdict
Butch Cassidy is the KTB Selection. He is taken to land this despite the step up in trip and the lack of experience on good to soft because he arrives in excellent order after two clear-cut wins and possesses the high-class ability to cope. His front-running style should see him set or share the strong pace that is anticipated, and any late collapse would only play to his strengths provided he sees out the distance. The main dangers are Derryhassen Paddy, who has solid Cheltenham form and a strong prominent run-style, and Catchintsavo, who drops in class with proven good-to-soft form and placed efforts at the trip. Follow Your Luck cannot be entirely dismissed after his recent course success.
KTB Selection Butch Cassidy
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Butch Cassidy | 11/4 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Derryhassen Paddy | 9/4 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Catchintsavo | 5/2 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Follow Your Luck | 20/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Turndlightsdownlow | 9/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| Kasino des Mottes | 10/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Cheltenham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cheltenham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cheltenham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Cheltenham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven to handle good to soft ground in this field?
Catchintsavo has two wins from six runs on good to soft and Derryhassen Paddy has been placed once from one run on the surface. Follow Your Luck is two from two on good to soft while the others are unproven.
How many of these runners have previous Cheltenham form?
Derryhassen Paddy has been placed once from one run at the course, Catchintsavo finished tenth once, and Kasino des Mottes has two fifth-place finishes from two runs here. The other three have no course form on record.
Which horses are likely to contest the lead given the pace shape?
Butch Cassidy, Catchintsavo, Follow Your Luck and Kasino des Mottes are all habitual front-runners, while Derryhassen Paddy and Turndlightsdownlow race prominently, supporting the prediction of a strong pace that could collapse late.
Who is stepping up markedly in trip for this race?
Butch Cassidy, Derryhassen Paddy, Follow Your Luck and Kasino des Mottes are all stepping up in trip, with Butch Cassidy having shown nothing at 3m1f previously and Kasino des Mottes last seen over 2m4f.
What are the class moves for the principals?
Derryhassen Paddy and Follow Your Luck are both stepping up in class while Catchintsavo is dropping in class. Butch Cassidy has no class move listed.
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