4:05 Aintree
This Class 4 mares' National Hunt Flat race at Aintree over two miles and a furlong on good to soft ground features a field of eight with limited overall experience. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Persian Diva on 58, with Purple Fountain and Wise Maiden both on 56 and Soleretta on 48, underlining the cautious nature of the assessments given the number of debutants and modest course records. With the pace shape unclear due to insufficient run-style evidence, the contest looks open and the KTB numbers point to a race that will hinge heavily on pedigree and the relative strengths of connections.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style data across the field to form a reliable picture. Wise Maiden is the only runner noted as typically settling in midfield, though that assessment itself carries limited evidence. This leaves the race without a clear leader or obvious pace anchor, meaning the key question is which horse will handle the unknown tempo best and show the requisite improvement or readiness on what could be a steadily-run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Persian Diva KTB Selection58/100
Persian Diva is a 5-year-old newcomer with no racecourse experience, so the assessment rests squarely on her pedigree and the strength of her connections. She is a half-sister to Embassy Gardens, a Grade 3 winner who landed five victories from 14 runs, while the dam has produced one other winner from three runners to race. Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls bring a 50% strike rate at Aintree from two runs, though that is too small a sample to judge with real confidence, and Ciaran Gethings has an 8% strike rate at the track from 59 rides which aligns with his overall record. By Harzand, she comes from a sire with a 13% win rate overall. With the KTB Fit score of 58 making her the top-rated in the field, she is taken to put her useful family tree to good use on debut.
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2Purple Fountain56/100
Purple Fountain arrives as a 4-year-old debutant with just the one piece of form in the book, having finished second on her sole start. She is a half-sister to I'd Like To Know, who won three times from ten runs, and the dam has produced one other winner from three foals. Christian Williams operates at a 7% strike rate at Aintree from 28 runs, which sits in line with his record at other tracks, while Jack Tudor has a 15% strike rate here from 40 rides, also matching his wider figures. By Idaho, whose overall win rate is 9%, she carries a KTB Fit score of 56 and represents a yard that knows how to ready a bumper type, though the limited data means she must be viewed with some caution.
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3Wise Maiden56/100
Wise Maiden is a 5-year-old who has already shown her liking for this venue, winning here over this trip on her only start at Aintree last season. Her recent form reads 31-1 and she is a half-sister to Big City Roller, who has won four times from seven runs, while the dam has produced two winners from six other runners. Tom Ellis has a 7% strike rate at the track from 15 runs, matching his record elsewhere, though Jack Andrews is yet to score in 16 Aintree rides. She typically settles in midfield according to the limited evidence available, and she carries a KTB Fit score of 56. The fact she is unproven on good to soft ground adds a note of caution, but her course success cannot be ignored.
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4Soleretta48/100
Soleretta is a 4-year-old newcomer with no racecourse experience and an official rating yet to be published, meaning the assessment is tentative and based on pedigree alongside sales background. By Maxios, a sire with a 12% overall win rate, she comes into a powerful yard in Dan Skelton, who holds a 15% strike rate at Aintree from 366 runs in line with his record at other courses. Harry Skelton is similarly effective here with a 15% strike rate from 306 rides, although that figure sits below his mark elsewhere. The KTB Fit score of 48 reflects the low data confidence that surrounds her, but the strength of the Skelton operation means she is likely to be well-prepared for this debut.
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5Lady Jetfire45/100
Lady Jetfire is a 5-year-old debutant with a limited pedigree as a half-sister to the modest winner Crystal Jet, while the dam has produced just one other winner from three runners. Jamie Snowden has a 6% strike rate at Aintree from 51 runs, below his 16% at other tracks, and Gavin Sheehan is 8% here from 97 rides, also below his record elsewhere.
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6Double Annie43/100
Double Annie is a 4-year-old debutant carrying a limited pedigree as a half-sister to the modest dual winner Atlanta Brave, with the dam having produced two winners from three runners but nothing of real note. Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore have a 0% strike rate at Aintree from 15 runs, leaving her very much an unknown quantity on this first start.
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7Music Maker41/100
Music Maker is a 4-year-old debutant whose half-sister Swingin Safari won twice from nine runs and whose dam has produced two winners from two runners to race. Alex Hales has a 3% strike rate at Aintree from 33 runs and Kielan Woods is 6% from 79 rides here, both in line with their records at other tracks, leaving the assessment tentative given the low data confidence.
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8Moral Compass40/100
Moral Compass is a 4-year-old debutant with a useful pedigree, being a half-sister to the Grade 3 winner Daylight Katie who won three times from nine runs, though the dam has produced only one winner from seven runners. Harry Derham has a 0% strike rate at Aintree from 11 runs and Paul O'Brien is 0-16 at the track.
KTB verdict
Persian Diva is the KTB Selection. Her strong family line, highlighted by being a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Embassy Gardens with the dam also producing a winner, allied to the trainer's excellent record at Aintree, gives her the clearest profile in a race short on hard evidence. She tops the KTB Fit scores and looks the one to beat on pedigree and connections alone. Wise Maiden cannot be dismissed after her course win over this trip, while Purple Fountain and Soleretta bring enough from their pedigrees and yards to make them the main dangers in what remains a tricky heat with several unknowns.
KTB Selection Persian Diva
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:03am, 25 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Persian Diva | 11/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Purple Fountain | 40/1 | William Hill, 1:03am |
| Wise Maiden | 7/2 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Soleretta | 2/1 | William Hill, 1:03am |
| Lady Jetfire | 3/1 | William Hill, 1:03am |
| Double Annie | 10/1 | Midnite, 1:03am |
| Music Maker | 9/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Moral Compass | 10/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Aintree. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Aintree racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Aintree results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Aintree racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over this course and distance?
Wise Maiden won here over this trip on her only start at Aintree last season.
What is the strongest pedigree line in the race?
Persian Diva is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Embassy Gardens, who won five times from 14 runs, and the dam has produced one other winner from three runners.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Aintree in this field?
Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls have a 50% strike rate at Aintree from two runs.
How many runners in this race have previous racecourse experience?
Four runners have previous racecourse experience: Purple Fountain (one second), Wise Maiden (form 31-1), Lady Jetfire (form 21-), Double Annie (form P1-), Music Maker (form 1-), and Moral Compass (form 4-1). Persian Diva and Soleretta are debutants.
Which horse is unproven on the expected good to soft ground?
Wise Maiden has had no runs on good to soft and is therefore unproven on the ground.
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