2:16 Nottingham
The 2:16 at Nottingham is the Robin Hood Stakes, a Listed event over 1m 0f 75y on heavy ground that has attracted a compact but competitive field of eight. All bar one of the runners are stepping up in class, which adds an extra layer of uncertainty to a race where the KTB Fit scores suggest a fairly narrow margin between the principals. Ebt's Guard tops the KTB rankings on 72, ahead of Centigrade on 62, with the remainder tightly bunched between 56 and 46.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner the pace shape is expected to be muddling and tactical, favouring those who can be ridden close to the pace. Several runners, including Oolong Poobong, Wise Prince and All Moonshine, like to race prominently or handily, while the top two in the KTB order, Ebt's Guard and Centigrade, both typically settle in midfield. The key question is whether the race will develop enough pace for the hold-up performers such as Checkandchallenge and Room Service to be able to land a telling blow from the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ebt's Guard KTB Selection72/100
Ebt's Guard arrives with a KTB Fit score of 72 and is the clear selection. Rated 103, this five-year-old has shown consistent form of late, with figures of 394433 underlining his reliability at this level. He steps up in class here but his trainer boasts a solid 21% strike rate at Nottingham from 43 runs, while jockey Lewis Edmunds has a 12% record at the track from 137 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well positioned in a race likely to be run at a tactical pace. He has been placed on his only previous start here and, although unproven on heavy ground, the selection looks to have the best blend of fitness and course knowledge.
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2Centigrade62/100
Centigrade is rated 105 and carries a KTB Fit score of 62, making him the most obvious danger to the selection. A four-year-old by a sire whose progeny have handled heavy ground well, he is two from two on the surface and steps up in class off the back of recent wins. The Ralph Beckett yard has an 18% strike rate at Nottingham from 379 runs, and Hector Crouch is 14% from 144 rides at the venue. He typically races in midfield, which should suit the anticipated muddling pace. His family note shows the dam has had one other runner that did not win, but his own record suggests he is progressing nicely.
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3Checkandchallenge56/100
Checkandchallenge is a seven-year-old with an official rating of 97 and a KTB Fit score of 56. His recent form reads 603002 and he steps up in class having shown he can handle heavy ground with one win and two places from two starts on it. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking for the race to develop some pace so he can come from off it. The William Knight stable has a 10% strike rate at Nottingham from 67 runs, while Callum Shepherd is operating at 15% from 105 rides here. With no course form on record, his effectiveness at Nottingham remains to be seen.
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4Oolong Poobong48/100
Oolong Poobong holds a KTB Fit score of 48 and is rated 99. This four-year-old has recent form figures of -50314 and steps up in class having shown a liking for racing prominently. The Edward Bethell yard has a strong 21% strike rate at Nottingham from 56 runs, and Callum Rodriguez is 14% from 76 rides at the track. Although unproven on heavy ground, his prominent run-style could be an asset in a tactical, muddling affair. He has no previous course form but his trainer's record at the venue offers encouragement.
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5Wise Prince48/100
Wise Prince is a three-year-old from the John & Thady Gosden yard with a KTB Fit score of 48 and an official rating of 100. He steps up in class with recent form of 1-3848 and is unproven on heavy ground. A prominent runner who has already won here from one visit, his family line shows he is half-brother to Dreams Of Thunder who won once from 12 runs, while the dam has had two other runners including one winner. The yard has a 21% strike rate at Nottingham from 75 runs.
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6All Moonshine48/100
All Moonshine carries a KTB Fit score of 48 and is rated 93. This four-year-old steps up in class off the back of recent form figures of 1-1101 and is unproven on heavy ground. He usually races prominently with high confidence in that assessment. The Andrew Balding stable has a 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 230 runs, and Rob Hornby is 15% from 197 rides at the venue. He has no course form on record.
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7Room Service47/100
Room Service is rated 109, the highest in the field, but carries a KTB Fit score of 47. This five-year-old steps up in class with recent form of 75-106 and is held up with high confidence in that style. He is unproven on heavy ground. The Jamie Osborne yard has a 7% strike rate at Nottingham from 170 runs, while jockey William Carver is yet to score from 17 rides at the track. He has no course form on record.
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8Mr Swivell46/100
Mr Swivell has a KTB Fit score of 46 and an official rating of 102. This five-year-old steps up in class with recent form of 428781. He typically settles in midfield and has one run on heavy ground without placing. He has been here once before, finishing 11th with no win or place. The Kevin Philippart de Foy stable has a 6% strike rate at Nottingham from 50 runs, and George Wood is 6% from 127 rides at the venue.
KTB verdict
Ebt's Guard is the KTB Selection and sets the standard on his recent consistency and course placement. He should be comfortably placed in midfield in a race that looks set to be tactical and muddling, and his trainer's record at Nottingham adds further confidence. The main dangers are Centigrade, who boasts a strong heavy-ground record and is progressing, and Checkandchallenge, who could be suited by the likely pace setup if he can produce his late effort. Oolong Poobong is the other principal who may benefit from his prominent style in what is an interesting Listed renewal.
KTB Selection Ebt's Guard
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:32am, 28 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Ebt's Guard | 9/2 | 7Bet, 12:20am |
| Centigrade | 7/4 | 7Bet, 12:20am |
| Checkandchallenge | 25/1 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Oolong Poobong | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Wise Prince | 11/2 | William Hill, 12:20am |
| All Moonshine | 22/1 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Room Service | 15/2 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Mr Swivell | 13/2 | Midnite, 12:20am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:16 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course form at Nottingham?
Ebt's Guard has been placed once from one run here, while Wise Prince has won once from one start. Mr Swivell has one run here, finishing 11th.
Who are the horses proven on heavy ground?
Centigrade is two wins from two starts on heavy with two places, and Checkandchallenge has one win from two starts on heavy with two places overall. Mr Swivell has one run on heavy without a win or place.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Nottingham?
Edward Bethell and William Muir & Chris Grassick both have a 21% strike rate at Nottingham, while the Gosden yard is also on 21%. Ralph Beckett is on 18%.
How many of these runners are stepping up in class?
All eight runners are stepping up in class.
Which horses typically race prominently?
Oolong Poobong, Wise Prince and All Moonshine like to race prominently or handily. Ebt's Guard and Centigrade settle in midfield, while Checkandchallenge and Room Service are held up.
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