1:50 Stratford

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Smile John Boy KTB Selection71/100

   Form 1240- · Ben Pauling · Kielan Woods

   Family: half-brother to My Girl Katie (5 wins from 31 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner.

   Smile John Boy has shown useful ability across four starts, winning once at today's trip and finishing second on two other occasions. He drops in class having last been seen tailed off in a stronger race over 2m1f. The yard posts a 23% strike rate at Stratford from 94 runs, well above their record elsewhere, and Kielan Woods matches that pattern with a 17% strike rate here from 189 rides. Usually raced handily on or close to the lead, he holds a strong chance of being towards the front in a race lacking an obvious leader. He remains unproven on soft ground, which is the main reservation. Overall the combination of prior form, class drop and course-trainer-jockey statistics makes him the one to beat.

2. 2Red Metal70/100

   Form 1P2-1 · Henrietta C Knight · Paul O'Brien

   Red Metal arrives in solid order after winning on his most recent start and already boasts a win at this track from two runs. He has shown ability on soft ground with one win and a placing from two attempts, and has won twice at today's trip from four starts. The yard's 12% strike rate at Stratford from 153 runs sits in line with their overall record, but Paul O'Brien's 25% strike rate here from 57 rides is notably above his general mark. He typically settles in midfield, which should be fine in a tactical race. With a course win already on his record he enters the argument as a major player.

3. 3Brecharnon65/100

   Form 1/4- · Dan Skelton · Harry Skelton

   Brecharnon won on debut over this trip before finishing a fair fourth next time out. He steps up in class now with only two runs on the board, and going suitability remains unknown after one run on soft that brought no win or place. The yard and jockey both hold strong records at Stratford, with Dan Skelton on 23% from 373 runs and Harry Skelton on 24% from 313 rides, both in line with their records elsewhere. Usually raced handily on or close to the lead, he should be able to take up a good early position in this muddling affair. The limited experience and ground question mean his form must be treated with some caution.

4. 4Posh Dude56/100

   Form 2U12F/ · Anthony Honeyball · Rex Dingle

   Family: half-brother to Posh Chick (1 win from 2 runs). The dam has had 1 other runner, a winner.

   Posh Dude is a debutant whose pedigree offers some encouragement, being a half-brother to Posh Chick who won once from two runs, while the dam has already produced another winner. The Anthony Honeyball yard has a striking 36% strike rate at Stratford from 53 runs, well above their record elsewhere. Rex Dingle's 10% strike rate here from 31 rides is more modest. With no racecourse form on which to judge him and low data confidence around the race, the assessment rests heavily on the yard's local record and the family line that suggests some ability.

5. 5Killarney51/100

   Form 25- · Chris Gordon · Tom Cannon

   Family: half-brother to Front View (3 wins from 24 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner.

   Killarney is a debutant with no official rating and no recent form to go on. He is a half-brother to the modest three-time winner Front View, while the dam has produced one other winner from three runners to race. Chris Gordon has a 12% strike rate at Stratford from 81 runs, in line with his overall record, and Tom Cannon sits at 15% here from 183 rides, also in line with his wider rate. The pedigree offers modest encouragement through the family line, but with nothing on the track to assess and several unknowns, he is one of the more speculative runners in the line-up.

6. 6Mr Maximillian46/100

   Form 64-6 · Olly Murphy · Lewis Stones(3)

   Family: half-brother to Bois De Clamart (5 wins from 30 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Mr Maximillian has shown modest form in three starts over this trip, finishing no better than sixth. A half-brother to the five-time winner Bois De Clamart, he remains lightly raced with only three career runs, so the small sample makes firm conclusions risky. The yard has a 16% strike rate at Stratford from 178 runs in line with its record elsewhere, but the jockey is operating at a 5% strike rate from 43 rides at the track and the horse is unproven on soft ground.

7. 7Jersey Tex45/100

   Form 8P- · Matt Sheppard · Stan Sheppard

   Family: full brother to Cappucino (2 wins from 21 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Jersey Tex is a lightly raced 4-year-old with just two runs and a pulled-up effort here last time. He drops back in trip having failed to complete over slightly further, so the race asks a fresh question. The yard and jockey both record strike rates at Stratford that sit in line with their figures at other tracks, and he has two previous runs on soft without placing.

8. 8River Don43/100

   Form 5P1-44 · Harry Ryall · Lorcan Murtagh

   Family: half-brother to Dgalwaygallivantor (3 wins from 14 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner.

   River Don is lightly raced with only two runs in the last year and a recent form line of 5P1-44 that offers little encouragement. He drops back in trip to an untried 2m today which asks a fresh question and remains unproven on soft ground. The trainer has only one run at Stratford so the 14% jockey strike rate here from 14 rides is the only established course figure.

9. 9Whiteoak Duffy42/100

   Form 0-8 · Simon Edwards · Lee Edwards

   Whiteoak Duffy has shown very little in two bumper runs and arrives here with a bare 0-8 record. The yard has only two runs at Stratford so the local picture is unclear, while the jockey's 8% strike rate here from 183 rides sits in line with his overall record. Trip and ground remain unproven questions given the small sample.

10. 10Unbelievable Jeff39/100

    Faye Bramley · Harry Kimber

    Unbelievable Jeff is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The yard has a 17% strike rate at Stratford from a small sample of six runs while the jockey is operating at a 5% strike rate here from 22 rides. Low data confidence means the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.