2:35 Punchestown
A modest nursery handicap over 7f at Punchestown forms part of the Premiere Weekend programme, with a small field of six two-year-olds where little separates them on official ratings between 61 and 70. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with two runners tied on 52, underlining the competitive but limited nature of the contest. All six are unproven on the ground and without course form, placing extra emphasis on how the muddling, tactical pace shape unfolds and which connections can extract more from largely exposed or lightly tried runners.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner declared the race is expected to be muddling and tactical, suiting those who can be ridden close to the pace. Margot Mae and Darlene both have prominent run-styles and should be able to secure forward positions, while Wecouldavehaditall and Miss Cornelia are likely to settle in midfield. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate matters or if the race will fragment early, allowing the hold-up performers Gabby Hayes and Knockraha Pa to close late in a steadily run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Wecouldavehaditall52/100
Wecouldavehaditall is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability across five starts without managing to win. He drops back to 7f having last run over 1m and now tries first-time headgear in a bid to spark improvement. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Punchestown from one run, so the 17% strike rate of jockey Paddy Harnett from six rides at the track is the main positive from the partnership. From draw 3 he is expected to settle in midfield, which should be suitable given the anticipated tactical pace. Half-sister to Victory Folie who won once from 16 starts, with the dam having produced two winners from three other runners.
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2Margot Mae KTB Selection52/100
Margot Mae is a modest performer who has displayed consistent but limited ability in six starts with form figures of 637554. She drops back to 7f today, a trip at which she has been placed once from three attempts, having most recently contested a race over 1m0½f. Trainer Mrs J Harrington brings an 11% strike rate at Punchestown from 1,376 runs, in line with her record at other tracks, while jockey Nathan Crosse is 1-12 at the course. Usually racing prominently with a high-confidence run-style, she is well placed to take advantage of the muddling tactical pace from draw 6. Half-sister to Cashbox who won twice from 10 starts, with the dam having produced three winners from six other runners.
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3Miss Cornelia38/100
Miss Cornelia is a modest performer who has shown little across her three starts to date. She drops back to 7f, a trip at which she has twice previously failed to trouble the judge. The trainer has a 4% strike rate at Punchestown from 54 runs, matching his record elsewhere, while jockey G F Carroll is still seeking a first winner from 19 rides at the track. Expected to settle in midfield, her positioning should align with the tactical nature of the race from the inside draw. With an official rating of 67 she remains in the mix on paper but has plenty to prove on what she has shown so far.
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4Darlene38/100
Darlene is a modest filly who has shown little in three starts, finishing sixth on both her latest two outings over this trip. The yard has yet to have a runner at Punchestown, while jockey Donagh O'Connor is 0-12 at the track. Trip looks suitable and she remains largely unexposed with only modest form on the page. Usually racing prominently, she should be able to take a handy position in a race lacking an obvious front-runner. From draw 2 she is well placed to contest the early fractions in what is set to be a tactical affair.
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5Gabby Hayes37/100
Gabby Hayes is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on his better days, placing once at this trip from five starts. Trainer Noel Meade has an 11% strike rate at Punchestown from 1,661 runs, below his 13% at other courses, while jockey Chris Hayes is 7% from 28 rides here. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a muddling tactical race. Half-brother to Irene May who won three times from 14 starts, with the dam having produced two winners from four other runners.
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6Knockraha Pa36/100
Knockraha Pa is a modest performer who has finished last on all three starts to date. He steps up to 7f having been beaten over the trip twice already without showing much. Both trainer and jockey record a 4% strike rate at Punchestown, in line with their figures elsewhere. Usually held up, he will need the race to fall apart in front if he is to feature. Half-brother to Corniche Girl who won once from 18 starts, with the dam having produced one other winner.
KTB verdict
The KTB Selection is Margot Mae. She brings the most consistent profile of the principals, has already shown she can be placed over 7f, and her prominent run-style looks ideal for the muddling tactical pace expected. Connections are operating at a level in keeping with their overall record at the track, and she is entitled to be thereabouts at the finish. The main dangers are Wecouldavehaditall, who tries first-time headgear and may improve back at this trip, and Darlene, who is lightly raced, has a suitable prominent style and could capitalise if able to dictate early. Miss Cornelia, Gabby Hayes and Knockraha Pa are likely to need further improvement or a strong pace collapse to feature.
KTB Selection Margot Mae
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:04am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Wecouldavehaditall | 7/4 | Bet365, 12:01am |
| Margot Mae | 3/1 | BetTom, 12:01am |
| Miss Cornelia | 7/1 | BetTom, 12:01am |
| Darlene | 8/1 | BetTom, 12:01am |
| Gabby Hayes | 7/2 | Bet365, 12:01am |
| Knockraha Pa | 12/1 | BetTom, 12:01am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:35 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Punchestown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Punchestown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back in trip after a run over further and trying headgear for the first time?
Wecouldavehaditall drops back to 7f after a recent 1m run and now tries first-time headgear.
Which runners are expected to race prominently in this tactical nursery?
Margot Mae and Darlene both usually race handily on or close to the lead.
What is Mrs J Harrington's strike rate at Punchestown?
Mrs J Harrington has an 11% strike rate at Punchestown from 1,376 runs.
Which horse in the field is a half-brother to a triple winner?
Gabby Hayes is a half-brother to Irene May who won three times from 14 starts.
How many starts has Knockraha Pa had and what is his form?
Knockraha Pa has finished last on all three starts to date with form figures of 000.
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