3:05 Punchestown
This 7f maiden at Punchestown on Premiere Weekend features a field of twelve three- and four-year-olds with relatively limited experience between them. The KTB Fit ratings point to a modest contest overall, headed by lightly raced Oracle Of Delphi on a score of 60, with a cluster of rivals rated in the mid-50s and 40s. Conditions are unproven for the entire field, adding a layer of uncertainty to a race that looks tactical on paper.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner the pace shape is expected to be muddling and tactical, favouring those who can race close to the pace. Several runners, including Celestial Siren, Saliba, Tide Of Fortune, Spacebound, Sibaza and Howya Pal, are usually prominent or handy, so the early fractions are likely to be dictated by one or more of them settling just off the speed. The key question is whether the race will fall apart enough for a closer such as Spectical or Abiding Memory to make late ground count, or whether the prominent runners can dominate in a steadily run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Oracle Of Delphi KTB Selection60/100
Oracle Of Delphi arrives with the highest KTB Fit rating of 60 and is the selection. Lightly raced with just two runs this year, he posted a modest 63 in the latest of them. He has placed once at this trip although the small sample means little else can be read into the form. Trainer A Oliver operates at an 8% strike rate at Punchestown from 37 runs in line with his overall record while jockey Luke McAteer is 1-14 at the track. Settling typically in midfield, he is drawn in stall 10 and remains unproven on the ground with no course form on record.
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2Celestial Siren57/100
Celestial Siren is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing placed on three of her last four starts including twice at this trip. She showed that form over course and distance when second here last season yet was well held on return at Naas. The half-sister to Forca Timao comes from a dam that has had one other runner, a winner. Trainer A Oliver holds an 8% strike rate at Punchestown from 37 runs while jockey G F Carroll is 0-19 at the track. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, she is drawn in stall 2 and remains unproven on the ground with no course form on record.
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3Saliba54/100
Saliba is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a second-place finish here at Punchestown. He drops back to an untried 7f trip today after his last run over 1m2½f. The dam has had one other runner, not a winner. Trainer Mrs J Harrington operates at an 11% strike rate at Punchestown from 1376 runs in line with their record elsewhere while jockey Nathan Crosse has an 8% strike rate from 12 rides at the track. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is drawn in stall 7 and remains unproven on the ground.
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4Spectical50/100
Spectical is a modest performer on his figures who has failed to build on a placed effort on debut. He drops back in trip to 7f today having looked stretched over further last time. The family is high-class with a half-brother to Group 1 winner Lumiere and the dam has had eight other runners, five of them winners. Trainer Ciaran Murphy has a 3% strike rate at Punchestown from 66 runs in line with his record elsewhere while jockey Paddy Harnett has a 17% strike rate from 6 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 4 and remains unproven on the ground with no course form on record.
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5Tide Of Fortune50/100
Tide Of Fortune is a fair 3-year-old with placed form at this trip on his only attempt. He steps up from 6f today having shown mixed results in three runs, including a latest second that suggests he is still learning. The half-brother to Path Of Silver comes from a dam that has had four other runners, three of them winners. Trainer Richard Brabazon has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Punchestown while jockey Leigh Roche records a 33% strike rate from nine rides here. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is drawn in stall 3 and remains unproven on the ground with no course form on record.
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6Spacebound48/100
Spacebound is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing second twice from three starts over 7f. He drops back from 1m today with first-time headgear on, which adds an unknown. The dam has had one other runner, not a winner. Trainer and jockey both have too small a sample at Punchestown to judge while he usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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7Abiding Memory44/100
Abiding Memory showed modest promise when fifth on debut over this trip. The half-sister to high-class Grade 1 winner A Dream To Share comes from a strong family with six winning siblings out of the dam. Trainer at Punchestown has a 3% strike rate from 33 runs in line with their record elsewhere while jockey Declan McDonogh posts a 17% strike rate from 42 rides in line with his figures at other tracks. Usually held up and producing effort late on limited evidence.
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8Shorten The Winter44/100
Shorten The Winter is lightly raced with just one run to go on so this is all very tentative. He drops back from 1m1f to an untried 7f trip today while drawn widest of all in stall 12 of 12. The half-brother to Callianassa comes from a dam that has had one other runner, a winner. The yard has a 23% strike rate at Punchestown from 31 runs which is above their 10% at other tracks while he typically settles in midfield on limited evidence.
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9Sibaza41/100
Sibaza has shown only modest form in two starts so far and is now dropped back from 1m3f to an untried 7f trip which asks a fresh question. The family has produced winners with half-sister Simiyann landing four races and the dam responsible for two more successful offspring. Trainer at Punchestown shows a 13% strike rate from 290 runs in line with his overall record while jockey Chris Hayes is 7% from 28 rides here in line with his wider figures. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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10Danpaddyandy38/100
Danpaddyandy is a first-time runner who cost a useful sum as a yearling. He is a half-brother to useful performer Hierarchy and the dam has already produced one winner from three other foals. Trainer and jockey both hold a 0% strike rate at Punchestown from modest previous attempts here.
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11Howya Pal33/100
Howya Pal has shown little in two starts so far with a recent form of 07 and now drops back to 7f having failed to place at the trip before. The half-brother to Our Boy Wes comes from a dam that has had one other runner, a winner. The yard has only two runs at Punchestown so the sample is too small to judge while James Ryan is 0 from 6 at the track. Data confidence is low given the horse's light career and he usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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12Maybe Art28/100
Maybe Art has shown little in two starts to date and remains hard to fancy on that bare form. The yard and rider both have too few Punchestown runners to draw any meaningful conclusions from. Lightly raced with limited family success, this looks a watching brief at best. Usually held up and producing effort late.
KTB verdict
Oracle Of Delphi tops the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection in a race where experience is at a premium. His lightly raced profile offers scope for improvement and the yard's solid record at the track provides a positive backdrop. Main dangers are headed by the consistent Celestial Siren, who has shown placed form over course and distance, and Saliba, who brings a solid recent record and placed form at Punchestown. Spectical and Tide Of Fortune add further interest in a contest that could be decided by how the prominent runners control the tempo.
KTB Selection Oracle Of Delphi
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:05am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle Of Delphi | 13/2 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Celestial Siren | 13/2 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Saliba | 10/3 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Spectical | 11/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Tide Of Fortune | 6/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Spacebound | 7/4 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Abiding Memory | 11/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Shorten The Winter | 66/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Sibaza | 22/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Danpaddyandy | 40/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Howya Pal | 150/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Maybe Art | 150/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:05 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Punchestown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Punchestown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest family page for black-type success?
Spectical, as a half-brother to Group 1 winner Lumiere from a dam that has produced five winners from eight other runners.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Punchestown among the principals?
Leigh Roche with a 33% strike rate from nine rides on Tide Of Fortune.
Which runner is the only one to have been placed at this course and distance?
Celestial Siren, who was second here over 7f last season.
How does the trainer strike rate at Punchestown compare for the two horses from the Oliver yard?
Both Oracle Of Delphi and Celestial Siren are trained by A Oliver who has an 8% strike rate at Punchestown from 37 runs.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Spacebound.
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