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Trainer profile

Robson De Aguiar

261 runners in the last 5 seasons · 65 individual horses
As at 26 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 11.8% of 296 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 26 Oct 2026.
Last runner 3 days ago 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)
from 1 Jan 2022
31–261
Wins / Runs
11.9%
Strike rate
n=261
75 (29%)
Placed
1.04
Fair A/E
n=261 · 0.87 incl. margin
−9.85
£1 level stake
n=261 at SP · −3.8%
£1.19m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11.6%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.04).

Deterministic profile computed from 261 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 26 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Donagh O'Connor: 13.4% from 119
The read

The record is strongest at Dundalk (AW) (20.8%, n=77), clear of the yard's 11.9% baseline. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.7% (n=73, Fair A/E 0.37). Donagh O'Connor rides 46% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (13.4%, A/E 1.24) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Standard (AW) going (19.8%, n=81). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 2.7% over 73 runners, 9.2pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Glenroyal Hotel And Shoda Café Minstrel Stakes at Curragh (IRE) (Jul 2026, £78,000).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
11.1%−0.8
n=36 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −27.22
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.5%−0.4
n=26 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −19.13
Debutants · first career start
12.5%+0.6
n=40 · A/E 0.98 · £1 +29.69
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−11.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.9
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
51.7%
n=29 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +5.49
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.3%−5.6
n=16 · A/E 1.39 · £1 +35.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
2.7%−9.2
n=73 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −53.90

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 1 2.7% vs 11.9% · n=73
In Group / Graded races 2.7% vs 11.9% · n=73
At Dundalk (AW) 20.8% vs 11.9% · n=77
On Standard (AW) going 19.8% vs 11.9% · n=81
With C&D winners 21.9% vs 11.9% · n=32
With David Egan 3.6% vs 11.9% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 81 16 19.8% +20.81
Good 77 7 9.1% −23.45
Soft 41 3 7.3% −33.31
Good to Firm 38 4 10.5% +40.60
Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00
Good to Soft 10 1 10% −0.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Curragh 78 5 6.4% +0.93
Dundalk (AW) 77 16 20.8% +24.81
Naas 28 3 10.7% +0.80
Leopardstown 18 0 0% −18.00
Cork 13 3 23.1% +6.00
Navan 11 3 27.3% +2.61
Ascot 9 0 0% −9.00
Gowran Park 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00
Newmarket 2 0 0% −2.00
Bellewstown 2 0 0% −2.00
Doncaster 2 0 0% −2.00
Newcastle (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
York 2 0 0% −2.00
Down Royal 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 73 2 2.7% −53.90
Class 2 8 0 0% −8.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 31 15 48.4% 1.29 +3.49
2nd–3rd fav 59 9 15.3% 0.90 −14.34
4th–6th fav 91 5 5.5% 0.82 −21.00
7th+ in betting 80 2 2.5% 0.94 +22.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Valiant Force (USA)from Adrian Murray 14 1 2 23 Oct 26
Carolina Jetstream (GB)from Adrian Murray 11 2 5 4 Oct 26
Reposado (GB)from Adrian Murray · then Dylan Cunha 10 0 3 3 Jul 26
Flanker Jet (GB)from Adrian Murray 9 2 5 18 Oct 26
Dallas Star (FR)from Adrian Murray · then Emmet Mullins 9 0 2 22 Aug 26
Ipanema Queen (IRE)from Adrian Murray 8 1 2 23 Oct 26
Belle Island (GB) 8 0 1 23 Oct 26
Power Blue (IRE)from Adrian Murray 8 1 2 17 Oct 26
Spicy Margarita (IRE)from Adrian Murray 8 0 0 25 Sep 26
Fate's Gambit (IRE)then Ruth Carr 8 0 2 24 Jul 26
Controlla (IRE) 6 1 3 2 Oct 26
Tosca No Candis (IRE) 6 1 1 27 Sep 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 65 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 22 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Adrian Murray (17) and Kevin Philippart De Foy (4); 38 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 13
Only 13 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
3619167108915971720
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDonagh O'Connor
46% of all rides
13.4% SR · A/E 1.24
RiderRWSR£1
Donagh O'Connor 119 16 13.4% −30.66
David Egan 56 2 3.6% −50.56
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→
31
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£1.19m
Prize money
2026
Best season · 29 wins
Power Blue (IRE) — Glenroyal Hotel And Shoda Café Minstrel Stakes (Group 2) Curragh (IRE) · Jul 2026 · Group 2
£78,000
Ballinea Star (IRE) — Jebel Ali Racecourse And Stables Anglesey Stakes (Group 3) Curragh · Jun 2026 · Group 3
£41,230
Ipanema Queen (IRE) — Doneraile Handicap Cork (IRE) · Jul 2026
£30,000
Notable horses
Carolina Jetstream (GB) Flanker Jet (GB) Ballinea Star (IRE) Force Noir (IRE) Bryant (IRE) Blanc De Blanc (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Wootton Bassett (GB) 13% · 3–23
Progeny have won 13.1% of 5,653 runs since 2008 (789 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.1% from 161.
Space Blues (IRE) 14.3% · 3–21
Progeny have won 12.6% of 722 runs since 2008 (130 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16% from 169.
Persian Force (IRE) 22.2% · 4–18
Progeny have won 13.6% of 214 runs since 2008 (53 horses).
Mehmas (IRE) 5.9% · 1–17
Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,139 runs since 2008 (747 horses).
Ubettabelieveit (IRE) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 10.5% of 457 runs since 2008 (77 horses).
Malibu Moon (USA) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 8.2% of 196 runs since 2008 (28 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 261 · newest first

The latest 50 of 261 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 November 2025 to 23 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Shamrock Flame (GB)J: Donagh O'Connor Des Byrne Memorial Maiden10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 4/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Celtic Comet (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 16/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Ipanema Queen (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor BAR 1 Betting Mercury Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 14/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Valiant Force (USA)J: Ben Coen BAR 1 Betting Mercury Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 10/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Cat Blade (GB)J: Patrick McGettigan Fastfix Quay Celtic 60th Anniversary Nursery Handicap5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 28/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Belle Island (GB)J: Nicola Burns Fastfix Quay Celtic 60th Anniversary Nursery Handicap5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 40/1
20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Sonny Hayes (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor 1xBet.ie Supporting October Racing Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 11th 11/2
20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Rejoinder (IRE)J: Leigh Roche 1xBet.ie Supporting October Racing Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 2nd 50/1
18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Flanker Jet (GB)J: Adam Browne-Souza Nord Anglia International School Dublin Foxrock Cup Handicap8.5f · Good · 16 ran 16th 40/1
18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Shamrock Flame (GB)J: Donagh O'Connor Leopardstown Golf, Padel And Range Maiden9f · Good · 15 ran 4th 16/1
17 Oct 26 Ascot Power Blue (IRE)J: David Egan Qatar Racing British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)Class 1 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 6th 33/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Valiant Force (USA)J: W. M. Lordan BAR 1 Betting 'Supporting Irish Racing' Handicap7f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 17/2
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Firewalker (GB)J: Donagh O'Connor Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden6f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 15/8F
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Rejoinder (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden6f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 22/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Fly Smartly (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden6f · Soft · 13 ran 12th 40/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Cat Blade (GB)J: Patrick McGettigan Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 100/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Tio Joao (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 14/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Donner Dancer (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 50/1
04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Flanker Jet (GB)J: Adam Browne-Souza 1xBet.ie Proud Partners Of Irish Sport Apprentice Handicap8f · Soft · 16 ran 13th 28/1
04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Benevento (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor 1xBet.ie Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap9f · Yielding · 10 ran 2nd 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Robson De Aguiar's strike rate?
Robson De Aguiar has won 31 of 261 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.9% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Robson De Aguiar do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 16 wins from 77 runners (20.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Robson De Aguiar?
Donagh O'Connor, with 119 runners since 2022 — 46% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (13.4%).
Is Robson De Aguiar in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 13 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Robson De Aguiar's Fair A/E?
1.04, from 261 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 26 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).