Always Certain (USA)
Always Certain (USA) is 1 from 21, the win coming at Class 5 level. Hasn't won since Jun 2008. The win came on turf — 0 from 10 on the all-weather, and the win came on good or faster ground (0 from 3 on softer).
- 1–21Wins / Runs
- 4.8%Strike rate
- 2 (9.5%)Placed
- −12.00£1 level staken=21 at SP
- 0.42Fair A/E n=21 · 0.36 incl. margin
- 72Highest OR
- 34dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
No KTB Speed figures for this horse. The engine scores GB and Irish racing from Oct 2016; runs elsewhere, or earlier, have no figure.
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 0 figures from 0 runs · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 11.6% of 3,018 runs since Jan 2008 (320 horses).
Weakest on soft going: 7.1% from 394. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 8.3% from 422.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 39 | 3 | 7.7% | −3.9 | — |
| Good to Firm | 605 | 83 | 13.7% | +2.1 | 1 from 4 |
| Good | 655 | 67 | 10.2% | −1.4 | 0 from 4 |
| Good to Soft | 290 | 22 | 7.6% | −4 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 394 | 28 | 7.1% | −4.5 | 0 from 2 |
| Heavy | 158 | 20 | 12.7% | +1.1 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 877 | 126 | 14.4% | +2.8 | 0 from 10 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 27 | 5 | 18.5% | +6.9 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 595 | 73 | 12.3% | +0.7 | 0 from 6 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 736 | 89 | 12.1% | +0.5 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 846 | 107 | 12.6% | +1 | 1 from 8 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 422 | 35 | 8.3% | −3.3 | 0 from 4 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 202 | 19 | 9.4% | −2.2 | 0 from 2 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 123 | 11 | 8.9% | −2.7 | — |
| Over 3m | 67 | 10 | 14.9% | +3.3 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 27 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
No other produce in our archive. It holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from 2005, so siblings racing elsewhere won’t appear here.
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 10 | 0 | 0% | −10.00 |
| Good to Firm | 4 | 1 | 25% | +5.00 |
| Good | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Soft | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 14 | 1 | 7% | −5.00 |
| Class 6 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Class 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lingfield (AW) | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Kempton (AW) | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Worcester | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Chester | 2 | 1 | 50% | +7.00 |
| Fontwell | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Plumpton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Southwell (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chelmsford (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Beverley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Musselburgh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| York | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chepstow | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 8 | 1 | 13% | +1.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Bolger | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Joe Fanning | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Greg Fairley | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Robert Havlin | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Royston Ffrench | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Darryll Holland | 2 | 1 | 50% | +7.00 |
| Leighton Aspell | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chris Catlin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| George Baker | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Eddie Ahern | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jamie Spencer | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| J-P Guillambert | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| 2008 | 12 | 1 | 8% | −3.00 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | 17 | 1 | 6% | −8.00 |
| Hurdle | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 · 7 runs | |||||||||
| 22 Jul 09+35d | Worcester | Try Lunch In The Severn Restaurant Novices' Hurdle | 6/8 | 29 | 10-9 | — | 81C | Colin Bolger | 100/1 |
| 17 Jun 09+47d | Worcester | Betdaq The Betting Exchange Novices' Claiming Hurdle | 11/14 | ¾ | 10-9 | — | 81C | Colin Bolger | 100/1 |
| 01 May 09+18d | Fontwell | Friends From Flanders Maiden Hurdle | PU/14 | — | 10-9 | — | — | Colin Bolger | 50/1 |
| 13 Apr 09+41d | Plumpton | freebets.co.uk Happy Easter Juvenile Novices' Hurdle | 8/9 | 18 | 10-12 | — | 77C | Leighton Aspell | 16/1 |
| 03 Mar 09+48d | Southwell (AW) | Bet In Running - Betdaq Claiming Stakes | 8/8 | 30 | 8-9 | 50 | 48C | Robert Havlin | 14/1 |
| 14 Jan 09+8d | Lingfield (AW) | Joyce Dobie Memorial Claiming Stakes | 5/6 | 4 | 8-11 | 51 | 53B | Chris Catlin | 10/1 |
| 06 Jan 09+20d | Kempton (AW) | williamhill.com Sale - Why Bet Elsewhere? Handicap | 6/10 | 2¼ | 9-3 | 54 | 53A | Robert Havlin | 25/1 |
| 2008 · 12 runs | |||||||||
| 17 Dec 08+65d | Kempton (AW) | Digibet Casino Handicap | 10/14 | shd | 9-2 | 58 | 55A | George Baker | 40/1 |
| 13 Oct 08+19d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Totetrifecta Handicap | 8/12 | 6 | 8-8 | 60 | 45C | Joe Fanning | 11/1 |
| 24 Sep 08+20d | Kempton (AW) | TFM Networks Handicap | 10/13 | ¾ | 8-4 | 63 | 49A | Royston Ffrench | 12/1 |
| 04 Sep 08+45d | Chelmsford (AW) | Musco "We Make It Happen" Handicap | 4/11 | 1¾ | 8-6 | 65 | 63A | Royston Ffrench | 12/1 |
| 21 Jul 08+11d | Beverley | Rollits Solicitors And Peter Stockill Ltd Handicap | 9/10 | 1 | 8-12 | 66 | 49C | Joe Fanning | 10/1 |
| 10 Jul 08+13d | Nottingham | Weatherbys Printing Handicap | 8/16 | ½ | 9-6 | 68 | 67A | Darryll Holland | 12/1 |
| 27 Jun 08+17d | Chester | Sunwin Bradford Renault Handicap | 7/8 | 1¼ | 9-9 | 69 | 60A | Eddie Ahern | 11/4F |
| 10 Jun 08+22d | Chester | Daniel Stewart Handicap | 1/9 | 9-4 | 65 | 72A | Darryll Holland | 8/1 | |
| 19 May 08+38d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Horizons Restaurant Rating Related Maiden Stakes | 9/12 | ¾ | 8-13 | 50 | 51A | Greg Fairley | 12/1 |
| 11 Apr 08+23d | Musselburgh | Edinburgh Evening News Handicap | 7/12 | shd | 9-7 | 69 | 58A | Greg Fairley | 12/1 |
| 19 Mar 08+46d | Lingfield (AW) | Join The Easter Parade At Pontin's Maiden Stakes | 4/5 | nk | 8-12 | 72 | 61B | Joe Fanning | 2/5F |
| 02 Feb 08+113d | Lingfield (AW) | Lingfield Park For Weddings Maiden Stakes | 2/6 | ½ | 8-10 | 72 | 57B | Jamie Spencer | 4/5F |
| 2007 · 2 runs | |||||||||
| 12 Oct 07+29d | York | IG Index E.B.F. Maiden Stakes | 6/14 | 1¼ | 9-3 | 46 | 73C | Greg Fairley | 7/1 |
| 13 Sep 07 | Chepstow | Join WBX.COM E.B.F. Maiden Stakes | 6/16 | shd | 9-3 | — | 68C | J-P Guillambert | 13/2 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Always Certain won?
- Always Certain (USA) won 1 of 21 archived starts between 2007 and 2009, a strike rate of 4.8%. Placed 2 times in total (9.5% of starts).
- Who trained Always Certain?
- Always Certain (USA) was trained by Pat Murphy on the most recent run on record, at Worcester on 22 July 2009.
- Who is Always Certain's sire?
- Always Certain (USA) is by Giant's Causeway (USA) out of Mining Missharriet (USA), whose sire is Mining.
- What going does Always Certain prefer?
- Always Certain (USA) has the best record on good to firm going: 1 win from 4 starts (25%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Always Certain's official rating?
- Always Certain (USA)'s highest official rating on record is 72.
- What is Always Certain's sire's record?
- Giant's Causeway (USA)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.6% of 3,018 runs since Jan 2008 (320 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest on soft going: 7.1% from 394. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 8.3% from 422.