Jamie Spencer
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 220 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.86). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (157 rides).
The record is strongest at Lingfield (AW) (25.5%, n=47), clear of the rider's 10.9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 14.6% (n=157, Fair A/E 0.91), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6% (n=251, Fair A/E 1.03). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 7.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.58 and −106.61 to a £1 stake over 222 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. David Simcock supplies 20% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.5%, A/E 0.82). The rider also reads well in Class 5 (16.1%, n=211). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 4.7% over 64 rides, 6.2pts below the baseline. 193 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Ascot (Jun 2023, £567,100). The standout partner of the record: Boz (GB) — 8 wins from 15 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Mar.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 12,466 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 12,466 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 9 February 2005 to 25 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Jamie Spencer's strike rate?
- Jamie Spencer has won 122 of 1,115 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Jamie Spencer do best at?
- Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 12 wins from 47 rides (25.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Jamie Spencer ride most for?
- David Simcock, with 218 rides since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (11.5%).
- What is Jamie Spencer's Fair A/E?
- 0.86, from 1,109 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.