What is Adrian McCarthy's strike rate?

Adrian McCarthy has won 32 of 647 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adrian McCarthy do best at?

Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 5 wins from 72 rides (6.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Adrian McCarthy ride most for?

J R Jenkins, with 99 rides since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4%).

What is Adrian McCarthy's Fair A/E?

0.90, from 643 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Adrian McCarthy

647 rides in the lifetime window · 395 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Oct 2020 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

32–647

Wins / Runs

4.9%

Strike rate

n=647

104 (16%)

Placed

0.90

Fair A/E

n=643 · 0.76 incl. margin

−212.79

£1 level stake

n=647 at SP · −32.9%

£205k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 50 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (30 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 647 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 5.3% J R Jenkins: 4% from 99 First rides: 5.6% LTO winners: 10%

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 10% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.84). J R Jenkins supplied 15% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (4%, A/E 0.88). The rider also read well over 1m2f – 1m4f (9.5%, n=137). The record read poorly in Class 2 — 0% over 32 rides, 4.9pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Siemens Smart Homes Aphrodite Stakes at Newmarket (Jul 2005, £16,240). The standout partner of the record was Hello Roberto (GB) — 5 wins from 15 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.6%+0.7

n=372 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −20.35

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

10%+5.1

n=30 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −12.25

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.3%+0.4

n=114 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −72.85

When favourite

31.3%

n=16 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −0.79

Big fields · 14+ runners

2.9%−2.0

n=102 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −44.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−4.9

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 9.5% vs 4.9% · n=137

With Christine Dunnett 0% vs 4.9% · n=70

With debutants 0% vs 4.9% · n=69

On last-time-out winners 10% vs 4.9% · n=30

In Class 2 0% vs 4.9% · n=32

Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 4.9% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 243 14 5.8% −82.92

Good to Firm 189 6 3.2% −142.37

Good 124 7 5.6% −19.50

Good to Soft 35 3 8.6% +29.00

Soft 30 2 6.7% +29.00

Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00

Firm 12 0 0% −12.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Yarmouth 100 3 3% +14.00

Kempton (AW) 72 5 6.9% −16.00

Lingfield (AW) 55 3 5.5% −37.17

Wolverhampton (AW) 46 2 4.3% −38.50

Chelmsford (AW) 44 3 6.8% +0.75

Newmarket 29 1 3.4% −21.50

Leicester 27 3 11.1% +11.73

Southwell (AW) 26 1 3.8% +8.00

Brighton 25 1 4% −17.00

Nottingham 24 0 0% −24.00

Windsor 22 1 4.5% −5.00

Newmarket 22 0 0% −22.00

Folkestone 18 0 0% −18.00

Lingfield 17 1 5.9% −9.50

Goodwood 15 2 13.3% +19.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 287 14 4.9% −54.67

Class 5 200 11 5.5% −97.87

Class 4 100 3 3% −40.00

Class 2 32 0 0% −32.00

Class 3 11 2 18.2% −1.25

Class 7 10 2 20% +20.00

Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 18 5 27.8% 0.91 −2.79

2nd–3rd fav 65 10 15.4% 1.06 −5.50

4th–6th fav 150 6 4% 0.60 −87.50

7th+ in betting 414 11 2.7% 1.04 −117.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fard (GB) 8 0 3 17 Sep 20

Drop Kick Murphi (IRE) 8 0 4 10 Aug 20

Trachonitis (IRE) 7 1 4 30 May 11

Dyagilev (GB) 6 1 2 12 Dec 19

Amwell House (GB) 6 0 1 20 Apr 10

Faregaan (GB) 5 0 0 15 Oct 20

Saga Sprint (IRE) 5 0 0 26 Aug 20

Russian Ice (GB) 5 1 1 28 Jun 11

Speedyfix (GB) 5 0 1 22 Jun 10

Baunagain (IRE) 5 0 1 15 May 10

Thumberlina (GB) 5 0 0 11 May 10

Norcroft (GB) 5 0 1 12 Nov 09

The 60 most-raced of 395 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

91303104244405

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJ R Jenkins

15% of all rides
4% SR · A/E 0.88

TrainerRWSR£1

J R Jenkins 99 4 4% −42.00

Peter Chapple-Hyam 72 5 6.9% −29.37

Christine Dunnett 70 0 0% −70.00

Peter Grayson 39 2 5.1% −14.00

George Margarson 31 0 0% −31.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£580k

Prize money

2006

Best season · 35 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Polar Jem (GB) — Siemens Smart Homes Aphrodite Stakes (Fillies' Listed) Newmarket · Jul 2005 · Listed

£16,240

Graze On (GB) — Warwick International Group Handicap Chester · Jul 2006 · Class 3

£10,094

River Bravo (IRE) — Sunwin Renault Handicap Haydock · May 2006 · Class 3

£9,716

Notable horses

Hello Roberto (GB) Graze On (GB) Misaro (GER) Amanda's Lad (IRE) Coconut Shy (GB) Al Qasi (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kheleyf (USA) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,540 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 879.

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 13.3% · 2–15

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Auction House (USA) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 6.8% of 1,734 runs since 2008 (142 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 10% from 100.

Dansili (GB) 16.7% · 2–12

Progeny have won 13.7% of 11,841 runs since 2008 (983 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 428. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.1% from 209.

Sir Prancealot (IRE) 0% · 0–11

Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,684 runs since 2008 (216 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.6% from 627. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.3% from 171.

Compton Place (GB) 0% · 0–10

Progeny have won 8.5% of 8,347 runs since 2008 (515 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.5% from 165.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,767 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,767 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 15 October 2020.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

15 Oct 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Faregaan (GB)T: Christine Dunnett chelmsfordcityracecourse.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 66/1

09 Oct 20 Newmarket Missed Illusion (IRE)T: Peter Chapple-Hyam Godolphin Under Starters Orders Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10/GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 3 · 7f · Soft · 10 ran 9th 66/1

08 Oct 20 Southwell (AW) Atlas Flame (IRE)T: Peter Chapple-Hyam Southwell Golf Club Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 28/1

03 Oct 20 Newmarket Ra Racer (GB)T: Luke McJannet Prestige Agri Maiden Stakes (Plus 10)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 9 ran 9th 125/1

03 Oct 20 Newmarket Lisdarragh (USA)T: Denis Coakley 150,000 Tattersalls October Auction StakesClass 2 · 6f · Soft · 27 ran 24th 200/1

19 Sep 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Soufyan (IRE)T: Milton Harris British EBF Novice StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 150/1

17 Sep 20 Yarmouth Fard (GB)T: Christine Dunnett Final Furlong Podcast HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 7th 13/2

14 Sep 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Awsaaf (GB)T: Milton Harris Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 20/1

13 Sep 20 Bath Arthur's Court (IRE)T: Milton Harris Best Free Tips At valuerater.co.uk HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 12th 50/1

07 Sep 20 Leicester Brazen Arrow (GB)T: Christine Dunnett British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 300/1

03 Sep 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Atlas Flame (IRE)T: Peter Chapple-Hyam tote.co.uk Novice Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 40/1

29 Aug 20 Newmarket Herringswell (FR)T: Martin Smith Close Brothers Invoice Finance Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 9 ran 8th 18/1

26 Aug 20 Lingfield Fard (GB)T: Christine Dunnett Heed Your Hunch At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 7th 17/2

26 Aug 20 Lingfield Saga Sprint (IRE)T: J R Jenkins Betyourway At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 10th 50/1

25 Aug 20 Yarmouth Faregaan (GB)T: Christine Dunnett Free Tips Daily On atthraces.com HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 25/1

24 Aug 20 Bath Ammayya (GB)T: Henry Spiller Final Furlong Podcast Novice StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 5th 40/1

22 Aug 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Victory Rose (GB)T: Simon Pearce Broomfield HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 5/1

21 Aug 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Tolstoy's Tale (GB)T: Peter Charalambous Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 Novice Auction Stakes (Plus 10)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 25/1

15 Aug 20 Doncaster Miss G Gee (GB)T: J R Jenkins Follow At The Races On Twitter Novice StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 11th 125/1

14 Aug 20 Lingfield Fard (GB)T: Christine Dunnett Play 4 To Win At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 3rd 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Adrian McCarthy's strike rate?: Adrian McCarthy has won 32 of 647 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian McCarthy do best at?: Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 5 wins from 72 rides (6.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Adrian McCarthy ride most for?: J R Jenkins, with 99 rides since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4%).
What is Adrian McCarthy's Fair A/E?: 0.90, from 643 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.