What is Alice Mills's strike rate?

Alice Mills has won 23 of 390 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Alice Mills do best at?

Newton Abbot by strike rate: 4 wins from 50 rides (8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Alice Mills ride most for?

Michael Chapman, with 114 rides since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (3.5%).

What is Alice Mills's Fair A/E?

1.20, from 389 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Alice Mills

390 rides in the lifetime window · 177 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride May 2018

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

23–390

Wins / Runs

5.9%

Strike rate

n=390

66 (17%)

Placed

1.20

Fair A/E

n=389 · 1.02 incl. margin

+47.33

£1 level stake

n=390 at SP · +12.1%

£147k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 40 times a season, across both codes, winning on 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.20). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 8% off breaks of two months or more (90 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 390 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7.8% Michael Chapman: 3.5% from 114 First rides: 6.2%

The read

First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 6.2% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.24 and +46.50 to a £1 stake over 177 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Michael Chapman supplied 29% of the rides and sits below the rider's average (3.5% vs 5.9%, A/E 0.95). The rider also read well off a 61-180-day break (12.2%, n=41) and in Class 3 (12.5%, n=32).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.2%+0.3

n=177 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +46.50

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

21.1%+15.2

n=19 · A/E 1.90 · £1 −0.67

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.8%+1.9

n=90 · A/E 1.66 · £1 +107.50

When favourite

33.3%

n=9 · A/E 1.43 · £1 +3.83

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

5.6%−0.3

n=356 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +65.83

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.2%−2.7

n=63 · A/E 1.02 · £1 +48.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−5.9

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 61-180-day break 12.2% vs 5.9% · n=41

In Class 3 12.5% vs 5.9% · n=32

With new recruits 11.4% vs 5.9% · n=35

With C&D winners 10.4% vs 5.9% · n=48

On Good to Firm going 9.5% vs 5.9% · n=42

In Flat races 8.6% vs 5.9% · n=105

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 178 11 6.2% +143.33

Flat 105 9 8.6% −12.50

Chase 93 3 3.2% −69.50

NH Flat 14 0 0% −14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 146 6 4.1% −4.50

Good to Soft 83 5 6% +45.33

Soft 71 5 7% +23.00

Good to Firm 42 4 9.5% −3.50

Standard (AW) 30 2 6.7% −3.00

Heavy 17 1 5.9% −9.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newton Abbot 50 4 8% +90.00

Ludlow 23 1 4.3% +78.00

Wincanton 23 2 8.7% −9.00

Market Rasen 20 0 0% −20.00

Fakenham 19 1 5.3% −14.50

Exeter 17 2 11.8% +19.00

Southwell 16 0 0% −16.00

Worcester 15 1 6.7% +11.00

Stratford 15 0 0% −15.00

Taunton 13 1 7.7% −5.00

Chepstow 12 1 8.3% −5.00

Catterick 11 0 0% −11.00

Beverley 11 1 9.1% +6.00

Newbury 10 1 10% −6.00

Huntingdon 10 0 0% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 164 11 6.7% +11.83

Class 4 116 4 3.4% −29.00

Class 6 68 3 4.4% −27.00

Class 3 32 4 12.5% +96.00

Class 2 6 0 0% −6.00

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 10 3 30% 1.36 +2.83

2nd–3rd fav 26 4 15.4% 1.07 +1.00

4th–6th fav 110 10 9.1% 1.40 +31.50

7th+ in betting 244 6 2.5% 0.97 +12.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

70.5% completed · 271 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 93 55.9% 1 1 38 0 1

Hurdle 178 78.1% 1 3 34 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hija (GB) 19 2 2 5 Jul 17

Tayarat (IRE) 14 1 2 5 Aug 12

Peak Seasons (IRE) 12 0 0 24 Oct 14

Epee Celeste (FR) 12 2 3 6 May 14

Feeling Peckish (USA) 11 0 1 11 Dec 16

Kheskianto (IRE) 10 1 3 16 Aug 16

Thundering Home (GB) 9 3 4 20 Oct 17

Xenophon (GB) 9 0 2 5 Nov 15

Monkerty Tunkerty (GB) 8 1 4 21 Jan 16

Galley Slave (IRE) 8 0 1 10 Oct 12

Simplified (GB) 8 0 0 22 Jun 12

Nosper (FR) 7 0 0 10 May 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 177 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

9391193788300

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMichael Chapman

29% of all rides
3.5% SR · A/E 0.95

TrainerRWSR£1

Michael Chapman 114 4 3.5% +19.50

Gail Haywood 42 3 7.1% +88.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

Archived wins

£147k

Prize money

2014

Best season · 6 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Monkerty Tunkerty (GB) — Higos Insurance Services Somerset National Handicap Chase Wincanton · Jan 2015 · Class 3

£12,512

Epee Celeste (FR) — Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap Chase Cartmel · Jul 2012 · Class 3

£9,747

Wither Hills (IRE) — Longines World Fegentri Championship For Lady Riders Handicap Curragh · Jul 2014

£6,900

Notable horses

Thundering Home (GB) Hija (GB) Epee Celeste (FR) Detroit Red (GB) Tayarat (IRE) Kheskianto (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Avonbridge (GB) 14.3% · 3–21

Progeny have won 8.6% of 3,930 runs since 2009 (262 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.6% from 795.

Noverre (USA) 6.7% · 1–15

Progeny have won 10.7% of 3,831 runs since 2008 (235 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.7% from 803. Weakest on Soft going: 6.9% from 407.

Raise A Grand (IRE) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 7.5% of 811 runs since 2008 (50 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.9% from 115.

Spadoun (FR) 16.7% · 2–12

Progeny have won 12.2% of 1,144 runs since 2008 (70 horses).

Point Given (USA) 0% · 0–11

Progeny have won 3.5% of 254 runs since 2008 (15 horses).

Kheleyf (USA) 10% · 1–10

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,549 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 393 · newest first

The latest 50 of 393 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 March 2007 to 10 May 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 May 18 Wincanton Nosper (FR)T: Bob Buckler Frys Electrical Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 16 ran 10th 20/1

01 Feb 18 Towcester Nosper (FR)T: Bob Buckler Visit Our Shop 'sports Mayfair' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 20/1

16 Jan 18 Hereford Nosper (FR)T: Bob Buckler myracing.com For Free Bets And Tips Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 66/1

11 Dec 17 Fontwell Nosper (FR)T: Bob Buckler Boughton's Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Heavy · 10 ran PU 25/1

08 Dec 17 Exeter Willies Dream (GB)T: Jess Westwood Read Noel Fehily At 188Bet Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 17f · Soft · 16 ran 16th 150/1

07 Dec 17 Wincanton Gibb Hill (GB)T: Bob Buckler Watch Racing UK On BT TV 'Junior' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Soft · 10 ran 5th 50/1

06 Dec 17 Lingfield (AW) Watar Day (GB)T: Linda Jewell Play Slots At sunbets.co.uk/vegas EBF Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 100/1

07 Nov 17 Exeter Chica Rapida (GB)T: Gail Haywood TomMaloneBloodstock.com Novices' HurdleClass 3 · 17f · Soft · 15 ran UR 250/1

31 Oct 17 Chepstow Chica Rapida (GB)T: Gail Haywood Polar Bear Windows Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 18 ran PU 66/1

21 Oct 17 Stratford Another Journey (GB)T: Sarah-Jayne Davies Collect totepool Winnings At Betfred Shops Lady Riders' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran PU 40/1

20 Oct 17 Wincanton Benbecula (GB)T: Richard Mitchell John Deere Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 11/1

20 Oct 17 Wincanton Thundering Home (GB)T: Richard Mitchell Bet At Racinguk.com Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 15.5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 40/1

12 Oct 17 Exeter Thundering Home (GB)T: Richard Mitchell Great Point Media Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Good · 14 ran PU 50/1

02 Oct 17 Newton Abbot Chica Rapida (GB)T: Gail Haywood PKF Francis Clark Mares' Novices' Hurdle (NHMOPS Bonus Race)Class 4 · 17f · Heavy · 8 ran 6th 40/1

22 Sep 17 Newton Abbot Chica Rapida (GB)T: Gail Haywood PKF Francis Clark Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 40/1

19 Aug 17 Bath Retrieve (AUS)T: Carroll Gray Silk Series Lady Riders' HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 50/1

07 Aug 17 Carlisle Baltic Prince (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Play At costabingo.com Whatever The Weather Handicap (Pro-Am Lady Riders)Class 4 · 8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 10th 40/1

07 Aug 17 Carlisle Toni's A Star (GB)T: Tony Carroll Play costabingo.com On Your Mobile Handicap (Pro-Am Lady Riders)Class 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 11th 6/1

31 Jul 17 Newton Abbot Lord Wessex (GB)T: Richard Mitchell Follow At The Races On Instagram Maiden Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 17f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 150/1

31 Jul 17 Newton Abbot Scorpion Star (IRE)T: Martin Hill Racing Welfare Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 9th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Alice Mills's strike rate?: Alice Mills has won 23 of 390 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alice Mills do best at?: Newton Abbot by strike rate: 4 wins from 50 rides (8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Alice Mills ride most for?: Michael Chapman, with 114 rides since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (3.5%).
What is Alice Mills's Fair A/E?: 1.20, from 389 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.