Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.48).
Deterministic profile computed from 153 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 3.6%
The read
The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (6.7%, n=30). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 0% over 45 runners, 3.3pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Total Assets (GB) — 7 wins from 53 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.4%+0.1
n=29 · A/E 0.68 · £1 +38.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.1%+7.8
n=9 · A/E 5.72 · £1 +58.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.3
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.3
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.3
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −3.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.6%+0.3
n=84 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −57.25
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f0% vs 3.3% · n=45
Over 2m5f – 3m6.7% vs 3.3% · n=30
On Soft going0% vs 3.3% · n=30
In Class 66.1% vs 3.3% · n=33
Off a 8-14-day break6.1% vs 3.3% · n=33
In Chase races5.3% vs 3.3% · n=38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle6311.6%−54.00
Flat5024%+32.00
Chase3825.3%−26.75
NH Flat200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good5523.6%−43.25
Good to Soft3512.9%−26.50
Soft3000%−30.00
Standard (AW)2428.3%+58.00
Heavy700%−7.00
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW)2328.7%+59.00
Sedgefield1800%−18.00
Newcastle1700%−17.00
Kelso1700%−17.00
Hexham1317.7%−4.50
Catterick900%−9.00
Carlisle800%−8.00
Perth800%−8.00
Wetherby600%−6.00
Cartmel6116.7%+3.00
Musselburgh600%−6.00
Ayr500%−5.00
Thirsk400%−4.00
Market Rasen300%−3.00
Southwell2150%+0.75
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 57522.7%−57.50
Class 44012.5%−37.25
Class 63326.1%+49.00
Class 3400%−4.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite8112.5%0.57−5.25
2nd–3rd fav2200%0.00−22.00
4th–6th fav4424.5%0.57−26.50
7th+ in betting7922.5%1.17+3.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4500%−45.00
2m5f – 3m3026.7%−12.50
6f – 7f2314.3%+44.00
1m5f – 2m2100%−21.00
1m – 1m1f1000%−10.00
Under 6f1000%−10.00
1m2f – 1m4f7114.3%+8.00
Over 3m7114.3%−4.25
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223925.1%−27.25
20232500%−25.00
20243113.2%−22.50
20251715.9%+50.00
20264112.4%−26.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps11554.3%−12.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners5823.4%+17.50
8-10 runners5012%−41.00
5-7 runners2613.8%−23.25
14-16 runners1417.1%+1.00
17+ runners400%−4.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 24 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 24 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive; 14 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard, most often for Sara Ender (2); 22 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0000140007009
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
30
Archived wins
£321k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Boric (GB) — Heineken Uk Highland National Handicap Chase Perth · Apr 2017 · Class 3
£12,512
Total Assets (GB) — John Smiths Handicap Chase Hexham · Nov 2018 · Class 4
£6,923
Total Assets (GB) — totepool Follow Us On Twitter Handicap Hurdle Carlisle · Apr 2017 · Class 3
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,628 runs since 2008 (842 horses).
Arcadio (GER)0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,977 runs since 2008 (375 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 707 · newest first
The latest 50 of 707 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 February 2005 to 16 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Simon Waugh's strike rate?
Simon Waugh has won 5 of 153 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.3% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Simon Waugh in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Simon Waugh's Fair A/E?
0.48, from 153 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Simon Waugh·SR 3.3%·A/E 0.48
KTB
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