What is Declan Bates's strike rate?

Declan Bates has won 84 of 1,360 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Declan Bates do best at?

Ffos Las by strike rate: 10 wins from 43 rides (23.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Declan Bates ride most for?

P J Rothwell, with 394 rides since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (4.6%).

What is Declan Bates's Fair A/E?

0.94, from 1,356 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Declan Bates

1,360 rides in the lifetime window · 584 individual horses

As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 148 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

84–1,360

Wins / Runs

6.2%

Strike rate

n=1,360

286 (21%)

Placed

0.94

Fair A/E

n=1,356 · 0.75 incl. margin

−507.38

£1 level stake

n=1,360 at SP · −37.3%

£945k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

25%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 70 times a season, across both codes, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (80 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,360 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Aug 30.4% when favourite P J Rothwell: 4.6% from 394 LTO winners: 12.5% Rides the favourite in 3% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Ffos Las (23.3%, n=43) and Wexford (11.6%, n=43) — all clear of the rider's 6.2% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 12.5% (n=80, Fair A/E 0.89), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.3% (n=44, Fair A/E 0.46). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 3.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −315.67 to a £1 stake over 552 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. P J Rothwell supplies 29% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (4.6%, A/E 0.75). The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (11.9%, n=135). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Seven Queensland Oaks at Eagle Farm (AUS) (Jun 2026, £207,921). Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.1%−1.1

n=583 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −223.87

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

12.5%+6.3

n=80 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −29.95

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

3.6%−2.6

n=196 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −98.25

When favourite

30.4%

n=46 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −1.59

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

6.2%+0.0

n=1,313 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −502.88

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.1%−3.1

n=552 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −315.67

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

2.3%−3.9

n=44 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −35.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Ffos Las 23.3% vs 6.2% · n=43

With Peter Makin 16.1% vs 6.2% · n=31

Off a 0-7-day break 11.9% vs 6.2% · n=135

On last-time-out winners 12.5% vs 6.2% · n=80

With C&D winners 10.6% vs 6.2% · n=113

At Wexford 11.6% vs 6.2% · n=43

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 50.6% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 582 43 7.4% −174.20

Hurdle 572 24 4.2% −293.76

Chase 185 16 8.6% −23.92

NH Flat 21 1 4.8% −15.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 294 16 5.4% −81.79

Heavy 261 18 6.9% −124.13

Good 249 14 5.6% −51.50

Standard (AW) 216 14 6.5% −109.13

Good to Firm 212 16 7.5% −105.33

Good to Soft 88 3 3.4% −28.00

Firm 40 3 7.5% −7.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 108 8 7.4% −40.13

Thurles 60 1 1.7% −53.50

Bath 56 5 8.9% +6.50

Tramore 53 2 3.8% +11.00

Clonmel 51 5 9.8% −4.50

Cork 49 2 4.1% −33.50

Downpatrick 48 2 4.2% −37.00

Punchestown 47 1 2.1% −45.09

Kempton (AW) 46 2 4.3% −32.50

Navan 46 2 4.3% −22.00

Gowran Park 45 3 6.7% −7.00

Chepstow 43 3 7% +3.50

Ffos Las 43 10 23.3% +20.43

Wexford 43 5 11.6% +15.83

Limerick 42 1 2.4% −35.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 217 20 9.2% −32.96

Class 5 216 13 6% −105.12

Class 4 101 6 5.9% −22.62

Class 1 26 1 3.8% −17.50

Class 3 24 3 12.5% +9.00

Class 2 17 1 5.9% −7.00

Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 58 16 27.6% 1.08 −3.09

2nd–3rd fav 171 26 15.2% 1.09 −16.79

4th–6th fav 378 22 5.8% 0.83 −152.50

7th+ in betting 753 20 2.7% 0.82 −335.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mayo Mystique (IRE) 17 1 10 20 Apr 12

Al's Memory (IRE) 16 1 4 28 Jul 15

Jacks Island (IRE) 15 2 5 4 Aug 11

Luddsdenene (IRE) 14 1 2 8 Apr 12

Ard Agus Fada (IRE) 14 1 3 29 Dec 11

Black Dave (IRE) 13 3 6 19 Aug 15

Annaluna (IRE) 13 3 7 13 Aug 15

Cabuchon (GER) 11 1 5 18 Aug 15

Know Your Name (GB) 11 1 3 24 Jun 15

Paddy O Dee (GB) 11 2 5 19 Aug 12

Mark Me Up (GB) 11 1 7 5 May 12

Knockcroghery (IRE) 11 1 3 11 Mar 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 584 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

9548371187451

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardP J Rothwell

29% of all rides
4.6% SR · A/E 0.75

TrainerRWSR£1

P J Rothwell 394 18 4.6% −243.43

David Evans 349 27 7.7% −74.25

Liz Doyle 48 4 8.3% −18.50

Peter Makin 31 5 16.1% −5.83

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£945k

Prize money

2013

Best season · 19 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Fireball Miss (AUS) — Seven Queensland Oaks (Fillies) (Turf) Eagle Farm (AUS) · Jun 2026 · Group 1

£207,921

Penny's Bill (IRE) — Bettyville Park Veterans Handicap Chase Wexford · Mar 2012

£14,625

Al's Memory (IRE) — Liverpool One Handicap Chester · Jul 2013 · Class 2

£12,938

Notable horses

Black Dave (IRE) Annaluna (IRE) Forest Edge (IRE) Spider Lily (GB) Jacks Island (IRE) Paddy O Dee (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beneficial (GB) 6.5% · 3–46

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Heron Island (IRE) 3.3% · 1–30

Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,819 runs since 2008 (317 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 162.

Anshan (GB) 3.7% · 1–27

Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,216 runs since 2008 (387 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 520.

Turtle Island (IRE) 7.4% · 2–27

Progeny have won 7.5% of 3,325 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.7% from 215.

Multiplex (GB) 4.3% · 1–23

Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,181 runs since 2011 (291 horses).

Bushranger (IRE) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,449 runs since 2013 (300 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,362 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,362 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 October 2007 to 13 June 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Jun 26 Eagle Farm (AUS) Warnie (IRE)T: Ciaron Maher Ladbrokes Stradbroke Handicap (Handicap) (Turf)7f · Heavy · 18 ran 8th 25/1

13 Jun 26 Eagle Farm (AUS) Voynichese (AUS)T: Nick Olive Trackside NZ J.J. Atkins (Turf)8f · Heavy · 12 ran 7th 10/1

06 Jun 26 Eagle Farm (AUS) Zou Sensation (AUS)T: Leon & Troy Corstens & Will Larkin Ladbrokes Moreton Cup (Turf)6f · Good · 11 ran 10th 12/1

06 Jun 26 Eagle Farm (AUS) Fireball Miss (AUS)T: Ciaron Maher Seven Queensland Oaks (Fillies) (Turf)11f · Good · 18 ran 1st 15/2

28 Aug 15 Ffos Las Sir Billy Wright (IRE)T: David Evans Sinclairs HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Heavy · 5 ran 3rd 15/8J

24 Aug 15 Kempton (AW) Saint Helena (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Racing UK Anywhere HandicapClass 6 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 2nd 25/1

20 Aug 15 Lingfield (AW) Smugglers Lane (IRE)T: David Evans Bhest Racing To School Handicap (AW)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 25/1

20 Aug 15 Lingfield (AW) Fast Scat (USA)T: David Evans Hickstead Show Ground Handicap (AW)Class 6 · 12f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 8/1

19 Aug 15 Ffos Las Black Dave (IRE)T: David Evans Victorian Sliders HandicapClass 5 · 7.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 5th 3/1

19 Aug 15 Ffos Las Sir Billy Wright (IRE)T: David Evans Centerplate HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 8 ran 1st 15/8F

18 Aug 15 Leicester Cabuchon (GER)T: David Evans Countesthorpe HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 16/1

17 Aug 15 Windsor Surprise Us (GB)T: Mark Gillard Unibet 90+ Cashback Offer Selling StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 14/1

14 Aug 15 Newbury Phantom River (GB)T: Alan King Al Basti Equiworld EBF Stallions Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 10f · Soft · 11 ran 5th 28/1

13 Aug 15 Ffos Las Annaluna (IRE)T: David Evans Camarthen HandicapClass 5 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 3/1

13 Aug 15 Ffos Las Black Dave (IRE)T: David Evans Llanelli HandicapClass 5 · 7.5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 7/2

13 Aug 15 Ffos Las Sark (IRE)T: David Evans European Breeders' Fund Maiden StakesClass 5 · 7.5f · Good · 9 ran 9th 25/1

30 Jul 15 Ffos Las Annaluna (IRE)T: David Evans Garej Raymond HandicapClass 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 5th 7/1

30 Jul 15 Ffos Las Ourlittle Senorita (GB)T: Miss Imogen Pickard Bluebell Maiden StakesClass 5 · 12f · Good · 7 ran 7th 100/1

29 Jul 15 Sandown Garcon De Soleil (GB)T: Michael Blanshard EBF Stallions Unibet's Community Shield Penalty Payback Maiden StakesClass 5 · 7f · Good · 13 ran 13th 100/1

28 Jul 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Ofcoursewecan (USA)T: Mark Gillard Award Winning Fine Dining At Horizons HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Declan Bates's strike rate?: Declan Bates has won 84 of 1,360 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Declan Bates do best at?: Ffos Las by strike rate: 10 wins from 43 rides (23.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Declan Bates ride most for?: P J Rothwell, with 394 rides since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (4.6%).
What is Declan Bates's Fair A/E?: 0.94, from 1,356 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.