Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.9%+1.7
n=17 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +2.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.2
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.2
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.3%+4.1
n=12 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −6.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 52.2% vs 4.2% · n=45
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase3525.7%−25.50
Hurdle3013.3%−11.00
NH Flat700%−7.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3512.9%−16.00
Good to Soft1915.3%−13.50
Soft1218.3%−8.00
Heavy500%−5.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Bangor-on-Dee1200%−12.00
Uttoxeter1100%−11.00
Southwell600%−6.00
Leicester6116.7%−2.00
Hereford600%−6.00
Market Rasen5120%+0.50
Worcester5120%+14.00
Ludlow400%−4.00
Stratford300%−3.00
Chepstow200%−2.00
Huntingdon200%−2.00
Doncaster200%−2.00
Carlisle200%−2.00
Sedgefield200%−2.00
Ffos Las100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 54512.2%−39.50
Class 42528%−2.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav15213.3%0.70−5.50
4th–6th fav2500%0.00−25.00
7th+ in betting2813.6%1.40−9.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m2913.4%−23.50
2m1f – 2m4f2129.5%+2.00
1m5f – 2m1800%−18.00
Over 3m400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20225335.7%−24.50
20231900%−19.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5036%−21.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners2400%−24.00
8-10 runners2328.7%+1.50
11-13 runners1700%−17.00
14-16 runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners2150%+2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 23 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 23 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tom Dascombe (3) and Gordon Elliott (2); 13 had their first archived run for this yard.
15 have since run for another yard, most often for Belinda Clarke (6) and Dave Roberts (2); 8 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0860130···000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
59
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£457k
Prize money
2018
Best season · 8 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,436 runs since 2008 (157 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7% from 341.
Kirkwall (GB)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 9.6% of 562 runs since 2008 (44 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.9% from 136.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,261 runs since 2008 (306 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 956. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 864. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 723.
Court Cave (IRE)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,921 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 934.
Dr Massini (IRE)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 762 · newest first
The latest 50 of 762 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 March 2005 to 22 May 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John Groucott's strike rate?
John Groucott has won 3 of 72 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is John Groucott's Fair A/E?
0.51, from 72 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John Groucott·SR 4.2%·A/E 0.51
KTB
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