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Trainer profile

Toby Bulgin

79 runners in the last 5 seasons · 25 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 24 days ago 96% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2022
12–79
Wins / Runs
15.2%
Strike rate
n=79
26 (33%)
Placed
1.64
Fair A/E
n=79 · 1.42 incl. margin
+41.50
£1 level stake
n=79 at SP · +52.5%
£101k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
27.8%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.7%−7.5
n=13 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −8.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−15.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
28.6%+13.4
n=21 · A/E 3.64 · £1 +72.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
14.3%−0.9
n=7 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −2.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−15.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.3%−6.9
n=12 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −7.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−15.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Hurdle races 6.1% vs 15.2% · n=33
On Good going 22% vs 15.2% · n=41
Over 1m5f – 2m 20% vs 15.2% · n=35
With a new jockey booking 19.1% vs 15.2% · n=47
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 33 2 6.1% −23.25
NH Flat 28 7 25% +69.50
Chase 15 3 20% −1.75
Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 41 9 22% +59.25
Soft 18 1 5.6% −15.25
Good to Soft 15 2 13.3% +2.50
Heavy 2 0 0% −2.00
Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Huntingdon 7 1 14.3% −4.25
Newbury 4 0 0% −4.00
Fakenham 4 1 25% +2.50
Ffos Las 4 0 0% −4.00
Uttoxeter 4 0 0% −4.00
Wetherby 4 1 25% −0.75
Doncaster 3 2 66.7% +33.50
Fontwell 3 1 33.3% +1.00
Cheltenham 3 1 33.3% +18.00
Worcester 3 1 33.3% +3.50
Warwick 3 0 0% −3.00
Stratford 3 0 0% −3.00
Southwell 3 0 0% −3.00
Sandown 3 0 0% −3.00
Hexham 2 1 50% +15.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 41 7 17.1% +6.50
Class 5 19 3 15.8% +24.50
Class 3 12 0 0% −12.00
Class 2 6 2 33.3% +23.50
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 0 0% 0.00 −4.00
2nd–3rd fav 19 5 26.3% 1.61 +3.00
4th–6th fav 29 4 13.8% 1.77 +2.50
7th+ in betting 27 3 11.1% 4.57 +40.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
85.4% completed · 48 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 15 80% 0 0 3 0 0
Hurdle 33 87.9% 0 0 4 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Merely A Detail (GB) 13 3 7 25 Sep 26
Luckofthedraw (FR)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 13 1 2 23 Apr 24
Crystal Jet (FR) 8 1 3 26 Sep 26
Arthur's Seat (IRE)from Keith Dalgleish 6 0 3 21 May 22
Midsummer Dream (FR) 4 0 0 26 Dec 25
Rapaport (GB) 4 1 2 18 Apr 22
Ligety (GB) 3 0 0 4 Dec 24
Bold Yeoman (IRE) 3 0 0 6 Jun 24
Solar Sovereign (IRE) 3 1 2 15 Feb 23
Don De La Frontera (GB) 2 0 0 24 Jul 26
Ledecka (GB)then Thomas Gallagher 2 0 1 9 Nov 25
Solal Nonantais (FR) 2 0 0 6 May 25
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 25 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
029182011020100025140
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Jordan Nailor 17 1 5.9% −14.25
Jonathan Burke 15 2 13.3% −4.50
Brian Hughes 14 4 28.6% +33.75
Tom Cannon 5 2 40% +32.50
Max Kendrick 4 0 0% −4.00
Danny McMenamin 3 1 33.3% +4.50
Robert Dunne 2 0 0% −2.00
George Downing 2 0 0% −2.00
Kielan Woods 2 0 0% −2.00
Isabelle Ryder 2 1 50% +2.50
Niall Houlihan 2 0 0% −2.00
Charlie Maggs 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
14
Archived wins
£120k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 5 wins
Black Eddy (GB) — Wasdell Group Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) Chepstow · Oct 2025 · Class 2
£8,714
Poetisa (IRE) — Junior Jumpers Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Apr 2025 · Class 2
£8,169
Rapaport (GB) — Aldiss Furnishing Stores Seniors' Handicap Hurdle Fakenham · Apr 2022 · Class 4
£7,788
Notable horses
Luckofthedraw (FR) Merely A Detail (GB) Crystal Jet (FR) Rapaport (GB) Solar Sovereign (IRE) Nathannah (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Falco (USA) 23.1% · 3–13
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,582 runs since 2008 (208 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.3% from 332. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13.6% from 286. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6% from 134.
Martaline (GB) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,340 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.
Crystal Ocean (GB) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 12.6% of 421 runs since 2008 (115 horses). Strongest on Good going: 15.7% from 166.
Champs Elysees (GB) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,118 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Dr Massini (IRE) 25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Kapgarde (FR) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,607 runs since 2008 (723 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 99 · newest first

The latest 50 of 99 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 May 2018 to 26 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Crystal Jet (FR)J: Jack Garritty 3rd And 10th Oktoberfest Race Nights Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 11f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 200/1
25 Sep 26 Worcester Merely A Detail (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Copybet Arc Summer Chase Series Final Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 11/2
03 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Crystal Jet (FR)J: George Downing Bettingsites.co.uk Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 12f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 150/1
28 Aug 26 Fontwell Merely A Detail (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 18f · Good · 6 ran 1st 3/1
24 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Don De La Frontera (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Chloe Mediumship Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 9th 80/1
19 Jul 26 Newton Abbot Crystal Jet (FR)J: Jonathan Burke Happy 80th Birthday Ted Hull Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 4/1
05 Jul 26 Market Rasen Don De La Frontera (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Boxing Day At The Races On Sale Now! Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 11 ran 7th 9/1
01 Jul 26 Worcester Merely A Detail (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Worcestershire Ambassadors Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 11/2
19 Jun 26 Goodwood Crystal Jet (FR)J: George Downing Fitzdares Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 14f · Good · 10 ran 8th 16/1
04 May 26 Fakenham Merely A Detail (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Heritage House Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 4th 6/1
04 May 26 Warwick Crystal Jet (FR)J: Isabelle Ryder Moore & Tibbits Family Fun Day Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 4th 15/2
19 Apr 26 Stratford Merely A Detail (GB)J: Danny McMenamin George Wood Years Of Service Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 2/1
06 Apr 26 Hereford Crystal Jet (FR)J: Isabelle Ryder Richard Layton Charity Evening 16th April Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 1st 7/2
21 Mar 26 Newbury Mistral du Chenet (FR)J: Dylan Johnston Goffs Hundred Grand Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 16th 12/1
18 Mar 26 Huntingdon Orixa (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Weatherbys Scientific Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 3/1F
13 Mar 26 Doncaster Port Isaac (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Virgin Bet 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 13/2
04 Mar 26 Catterick True Measure (GB)J: Tom Cannon Flat Season Next Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 15.5f · Good · 8 ran 8th 5/1
25 Feb 26 Wincanton Nathannah (GB)J: James Bowen Wincanton Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 15f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 1st 9/1
26 Dec 25 Fontwell Midsummer Dream (FR)J: Joshua Bryan tigerbet.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 4th 33/1
21 Dec 25 Fakenham Merely A Detail (GB)J: Robert Dunne Sky Bet Extra Places Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Toby Bulgin's strike rate?
Toby Bulgin has won 12 of 79 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 15.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Toby Bulgin's Fair A/E?
1.64, from 79 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).