Katherine Begley
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 40 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.85). Rode mostly for David Evans — 70% of rides in the window.
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.61 and −84.00 to a £1 stake over 128 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. David Evans supplied 70% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.9% vs 7.6%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (19.6%, n=51) and over 6f – 7f (13.8%, n=109). The record read poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 2.7% over 75 rides, 4.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 0.45 across 76 rides (3.9% strike, −52.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2014→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 289 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 289 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 23 June 2014 to 6 September 2021.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Katherine Begley's strike rate?
- Katherine Begley has won 22 of 289 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Katherine Begley do best at?
- Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 70 rides (5.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Katherine Begley ride most for?
- David Evans, with 203 rides since 2008 — 70% of the total. That pairing has won 20 (9.9%).
- What is Katherine Begley's Fair A/E?
- 0.85, from 289 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.