Michael Stainton
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 80 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (65 rides).
Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.8% (n=65, Fair A/E 0.95), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.8% (n=142, Fair A/E 0.66). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.81 and −170.04 to a £1 stake over 289 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Richard Whitaker supplied 31% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.2%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a 8-14-day break (10.1%, n=267). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 58 rides, 6.6pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record was Mey Blossom (GB) — 7 wins from 32 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Dec–Feb.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,605 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,605 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 25 January 2005 to 2 March 2020.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Michael Stainton's strike rate?
- Michael Stainton has won 71 of 1,082 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Michael Stainton do best at?
- Beverley by strike rate: 6 wins from 57 rides (10.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Michael Stainton ride most for?
- Richard Whitaker, with 340 rides since 2008 — 31% of the total. That pairing has won 28 (8.2%).
- What is Michael Stainton's Fair A/E?
- 0.94, from 1,074 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.