What is Michael Smith's strike rate?

Michael Smith has won 49 of 486 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Michael Smith do best at?

Catterick by strike rate: 6 wins from 36 runners (16.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Michael Smith?

Danny Cook, with 74 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (18.9%).

What is Michael Smith's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 484 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Michael Smith

486 runners in the lifetime window · 59 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Sep 2016

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

49–486

Wins / Runs

10.1%

Strike rate

n=486

132 (27%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=484 · 0.86 incl. margin

−93.51

£1 level stake

n=486 at SP · −19.2%

£371k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 50 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). Debutants are a strength: 13% on first career starts (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 486 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Feb–Apr 35.9% when favourite Danny Cook: 18.9% from 74 Sent off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

It is weakest at Newcastle (3.8% over 53 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Danny Cook rode 15% of the entries and beats the yard's average (18.9% vs 10.1%, A/E 1.48) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well over 2m5f – 3m (16.9%, n=71). The record read poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 0% over 30 runners, 10.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good to Firm going: Fair A/E 0.42 across 57 runners (3.5% strike, −44.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The stable star of the record was Orsippus (USA) — 5 wins from 50 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.6%−1.5

n=105 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −21.12

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.5%+2.4

n=24 · A/E 1.73 · £1 +7.50

Debutants · first career start

12.9%+2.8

n=31 · A/E 1.97 · £1 +47.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

13.3%+3.2

n=15 · A/E 1.30 · £1 −0.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.3%−1.8

n=12 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −7.50

When favourite

35.9%

n=39 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +10.29

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.2%−2.9

n=97 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −33.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.1

n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Danny Cook 18.9% vs 10.1% · n=74

With horses switching code 1.4% vs 10.1% · n=70

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0% vs 10.1% · n=30

Over 2m5f – 3m 16.9% vs 10.1% · n=71

On Good to Firm going 3.5% vs 10.1% · n=57

At Newcastle 3.8% vs 10.1% · n=53

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 204 24 11.8% −16.50

Flat 178 14 7.9% −80.13

Chase 60 7 11.7% −26.38

NH Flat 44 4 9.1% +29.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 155 17 11% +0.33

Good to Soft 122 12 9.8% −29.59

Soft 100 12 12% −11.87

Good to Firm 57 2 3.5% −44.50

Standard (AW) 31 5 16.1% +1.12

Heavy 18 1 5.6% −6.00

Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kelso 58 9 15.5% +28.63

Musselburgh 54 7 13% −21.59

Newcastle 53 2 3.8% −37.00

Hexham 37 5 13.5% −4.62

Catterick 36 6 16.7% +4.00

Southwell (AW) 27 5 18.5% +5.12

Wetherby 24 3 12.5% +7.25

Carlisle 21 1 4.8% −15.50

Redcar 19 0 0% −19.00

Market Rasen 18 3 16.7% −0.17

Sedgefield 16 0 0% −16.00

Pontefract 13 3 23.1% −2.75

Perth 12 1 8.3% −8.88

Thirsk 10 0 0% −10.00

Ayr 10 2 20% +13.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 182 25 13.7% −34.38

Class 5 125 12 9.6% +4.00

Class 6 79 6 7.6% −40.88

Class 3 60 3 5% −49.75

Class 2 26 2 7.7% +0.50

Class 1 14 1 7.1% +27.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 47 14 29.8% 1.07 +2.29

2nd–3rd fav 122 22 18% 1.15 −8.30

4th–6th fav 148 7 4.7% 0.65 −68.50

7th+ in betting 169 6 3.6% 0.95 −19.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Orsippus (USA)from Mick Channon 50 5 14 10 Oct 15

Vito Volterra (IRE)from Andrew Haynes 33 4 13 27 Jun 14

Prince Of Vasa (IRE)from Mark Johnston 29 2 7 23 Jul 13

Nadeen (IRE)from Mick Channon 23 2 4 1 Jan 13

Makbullet (GB)from Howard Johnson 20 3 7 4 Jan 16

Applejack Lad (GB)from John Ryan 15 0 5 30 Sep 16

Most Honourable (GB)then John Joseph Hanlon 15 1 2 26 May 15

Texas Holdem (IRE)from Ms Margaret Mullins 15 1 5 29 Dec 11

Kilgefin Star (IRE)from Colin Bowe · then R P McNamara 14 3 6 5 Jun 16

Brunello (GB)from Philip Kirby 13 1 1 5 Feb 16

Imperial Vic (IRE)from Liam Corcoran · then Harriet Bethell 13 4 7 22 Apr 14

Somerset Island (IRE)from Howard Johnson 12 1 4 25 May 13

All 59 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 59 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Colin Bowe (2) and Howard Johnson (2); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.

27 have since run for another yard, most often for Katie Scott (3) and Brian Ellison (2); 32 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

101214128106008725

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDanny Cook

15% of all rides
18.9% SR · A/E 1.48

RiderRWSR£1

Danny Cook 74 14 18.9% +19.04

Henry Brooke 45 2 4.4% −36.17

Andrew Mullen 38 4 10.5% −15.38

Brian Hughes 38 4 10.5% −20.75

Adam Nicol 32 4 12.5% +13.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£397k

Prize money

2012

Best season · 13 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Orsippus (USA) — Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2010 · Class 1

£57,010

Orsippus (USA) — Ayrshire Hospice Making Today Matter Handicap Hurdle Ayr · Apr 2013 · Class 2

£14,296

Vito Volterra (IRE) — tradersbettingexchange.co.uk Seaton Delaval Handicap (Str) Newcastle · Jun 2011 · Class 2

£9,845

Notable horses

Orsippus (USA) Vito Volterra (IRE) Imperial Vic (IRE) Texas Holdem (IRE) Makbullet (GB) Kilgefin Star (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Sunday Break (JPN) 10% · 5–50

Progeny have won 9.6% of 1,123 runs since 2008 (155 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.7% from 220. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.6% from 231.

Antonius Pius (USA) 12.1% · 4–33

Progeny have won 8.1% of 3,236 runs since 2008 (195 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5% from 339.

Kheleyf (USA) 6.3% · 2–32

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,540 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 879.

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 6.9% · 2–29

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Mujahid (USA) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,375 runs since 2008 (131 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 333.

Makbul (GB) 15% · 3–20

Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,039 runs since 2008 (65 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 12.8% from 117. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 120.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 518 · newest first

The latest 50 of 518 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 March 2005 to 30 September 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

30 Sep 16 Newcastle (AW) Applejack Lad (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan vertem.co.uk HandicapClass 6 · 12.5f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 50/1

23 Sep 16 Newcastle (AW) Applejack Lad (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Flame Heating Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 12.5f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 28/1

04 Aug 16 Newcastle (AW) Applejack Lad (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Parklands Mini Golf Team Building Events HandicapClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 12/1

13 Jul 16 Catterick Applejack Lad (GB)J: Mr Matthew Ennis Betfair Amateur Riders' HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 11th 8/1

17 Jun 16 Market Rasen Mister Spingsprong (IRE)J: Henry Brooke Associated British Ports Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 4/1

11 Jun 16 Hexham Mr Witmore (IRE)J: Henry Brooke Hadrian Healthcare Novices' HurdleClass 3 · 23.5f · Good · 9 ran 6th 16/1

05 Jun 16 Perth Kilgefin Star (IRE)J: Henry Brooke Range Rover Evoque Convertible Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 14/1

04 Jun 16 Hexham Mister Spingsprong (IRE)J: Henry Brooke totescoop6 Play for Just 2 Novices' ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 13/8

03 Jun 16 Catterick Trinity House (IRE)J: Paddy Aspell We Will Miss You Marion Maiden StakesClass 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 8 ran SU 125/1

03 Jun 16 Market Rasen Kid Valentine (IRE)J: Henry Brooke Bloodwise - Beating Blood Cancer Since 1960 Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 5 ran 1st 10/3

01 Jun 16 Cartmel Hail The Brave (IRE)J: Henry Brooke Smooth Radio Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good · 15 ran 10th 14/1

29 May 16 Kelso Mahler Bay (IRE)J: Henry Brooke Reece, Ben, Jessica & Charlotte Coppola Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 18f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 3rd 12/1

25 May 16 Market Rasen Dream Flyer (IRE)J: Ryan Day 32red.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 7/1

24 May 16 Hexham Mr Witmore (IRE)J: Henry Brooke Hexham And Northern Rural Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 7/1

17 May 16 Newcastle (AW) Applejack Lad (GB)J: Graham Lee Tapeta Footings Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 8/1

10 May 16 Sedgefield Trinity House (IRE)J: Ryan Day Paxtons Supporting Customers With Peregrine Finance Maiden NH Flat Race (Conditional and Amateur Riders)Class 6 · 17f · Good To Firm · 6 ran PU 33/1

10 May 16 Sedgefield Mahler Bay (IRE)J: Ryan Day Paxtons Use Romero Insurance Brokers Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 3rd 16/1

10 May 16 Sedgefield Mr Witmore (IRE)J: Henry Brooke Paxtons For Jcb Agriculture Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 21f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 3rd 16/1

07 May 16 Haydock Kilgefin Star (IRE)J: Jamie Hamilton Pertemps Network Intermediate Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 16/1

04 May 16 Kelso Trinity House (IRE)J: Henry Brooke Ferguson Planning & Development Standard Open NH Flat Race (Div 1)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 8th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael Smith's strike rate?: Michael Smith has won 49 of 486 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Smith do best at?: Catterick by strike rate: 6 wins from 36 runners (16.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael Smith?: Danny Cook, with 74 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (18.9%).
What is Michael Smith's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 484 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.