Michael Tebbutt
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode 466 times in our archive record (2005–2007), almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across that record (Fair A/E 0.93). In big fields of 14 or more the record reads 8% (155 rides).
The record is strongest at Yarmouth (12.9%, n=31), clear of the rider's 6% baseline. It is weakest at Wolverhampton (AW) (1.4% over 69 rides) — the widest gap in the record. V Smith supplied 15% of the rides and sits below the rider's average (2.9% vs 6%, A/E 0.53). The rider also read well on Good going (10.9%, n=64) and in Class 7 (10%, n=160). The record read poorly in Class 5 — 2.9% over 137 rides, 3.1pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired Aug–Oct.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. Tiles that depend on a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time off, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are not shown on an archive-era record: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 2005–2007Riding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 466 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 466 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 16 February 2007.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Michael Tebbutt's strike rate?
- Michael Tebbutt has won 28 of 466 rides between 2005 and 2007, a strike rate of 6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. Our archive begins in 2005, so anything earlier is not counted.
- Which course does Michael Tebbutt do best at?
- Yarmouth by strike rate: 4 wins from 31 rides (12.9%) between 2005 and 2007. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Michael Tebbutt ride most for?
- V Smith, with 70 rides between 2005 and 2007 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (2.9%).
- What is Michael Tebbutt's Fair A/E?
- 0.93, from 464 rides with a computed fair probability between 2005 and 2007. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.