No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sent out around 50 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.63).
Deterministic profile computed from 155 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
The read
The yard also read well in Class 4 (19.4%, n=31) and over 1m5f – 2m (17.1%, n=35). The record read poorly in Class 6 — 7.8% over 51 runners, 4.5pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Simple Jim (FR) — 5 wins from 18 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
13.6%+1.3
n=22 · A/E 2.47 · £1 +16.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+0.2
n=16 · A/E 2.72 · £1 +26.00
Debutants · first career start
11.1%−1.2
n=9 · A/E 3.09 · £1 +58.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−12.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
14.3%+2.0
n=7 · A/E 2.11 · £1 +0.00
When favourite
50%
n=6 · A/E 2.56 · £1 +5.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10%−2.3
n=50 · A/E 1.48 · £1 −0.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−12.3
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 419.4% vs 12.3% · n=31
In Class 67.8% vs 12.3% · n=51
Over 1m5f – 2m17.1% vs 12.3% · n=35
Over 6f – 7f15.8% vs 12.3% · n=38
With claiming riders up10% vs 12.3% · n=50
In Hurdle races14.7% vs 12.3% · n=34
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat1151412.2%+59.50
Hurdle34514.7%+9.00
NH Flat600%−6.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good50714%+65.25
Good to Firm37513.5%−2.75
Standard (AW)26415.4%+9.50
Good to Soft2114.8%−14.00
Soft18211.1%+7.50
Heavy200%−2.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Southwell (AW)22418.2%+13.50
Catterick22418.2%+59.00
Redcar17529.4%+18.00
Thirsk1317.7%+8.00
Newcastle10110%−5.50
Beverley900%−9.00
Market Rasen8225%+17.50
Doncaster800%−8.00
Haydock7114.3%+2.00
Ripon600%−6.00
Pontefract500%−5.00
Wolverhampton (AW)400%−4.00
York400%−4.00
Musselburgh300%−3.00
Punchestown300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 65147.8%−28.00
Class 550714%+76.50
Class 431619.4%+21.50
Class 316212.5%−0.50
Class 1200%−2.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Class 7100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite15640%2.04+11.00
2nd–3rd fav20420%1.30+2.50
4th–6th fav49714.3%2.00+32.00
7th+ in betting7122.8%0.93+17.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f38615.8%+84.00
1m5f – 2m35617.1%−0.50
1m2f – 1m4f2500%−25.00
2m1f – 2m4f19315.8%+12.50
1m – 1m1f18422.2%+11.50
Under 6f1600%−16.00
2m5f – 3m400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20098189.9%+40.00
2010741114.9%+22.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1021514.7%+17.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners6269.7%−23.75
8-10 runners43716.3%+12.25
14-16 runners27518.5%+92.50
17+ runners1100%−11.00
5-7 runners1119.1%−6.50
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 25 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan Brown (4) and Bryan Smart (2); 9 had their first archived run for this yard.
18 have since run for another yard, most often for David O'Meara (17); 7 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
017702521001423430
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Trans Sonic (GB) — Bet In Play At Ladbrokes.com Handicap Southwell (AW) · May 2010 · Class 3
£6,939
Joyeaux (GB) — totesport 0800 221 221 Handicap Hamilton · Sep 2007 · Class 4
£6,477
River Logic (IRE) — Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance Handicap Hurdle Market Rasen · Nov 2009 · Class 3
Progeny have won 8.6% of 625 runs since 2008 (43 horses).
Refuse To Bend (IRE)11.1% · 2–18
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,868 runs since 2008 (320 horses).
Sadler's Wells (USA)5.9% · 1–17
Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,636 runs since 2008 (370 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.7% from 107.
Ishiguru (USA)0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 10.4% of 3,199 runs since 2008 (156 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.5% from 155.
Marju (IRE)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,553 runs since 2008 (286 horses).
Fasliyev (USA)25% · 2–8
Progeny have won 8.3% of 4,140 runs since 2008 (273 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.1% from 124.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 488 · newest first
The latest 50 of 488 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 12 June 2010.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J Hetherton's strike rate?
J Hetherton has won 19 of 155 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is J Hetherton's Fair A/E?
1.63, from 154 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
J Hetherton·SR 12.3%·A/E 1.63
KTB
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