Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 21.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
25%+3.6
n=4 · A/E 2.24 · £1 +0.00
Debutants · first career start
25%+3.6
n=8 · A/E 1.56 · £1 −0.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−21.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
40%+18.6
n=5 · A/E 2.46 · £1 +3.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−21.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 21.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
NH Flat13323.1%−1.50
Hurdle100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good8225%−0.50
Good to Soft4125%+0.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Market Rasen3266.7%+5.00
Southwell200%−2.00
Haydock2150%+1.50
Lingfield (AW)100%−1.00
Stratford100%−1.00
Uttoxeter100%−1.00
Catterick100%−1.00
Fakenham100%−1.00
Ascot100%−1.00
Newbury100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 58225%+0.00
Class 32150%+1.50
Class 4200%−2.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav7342.9%2.16+4.50
4th–6th fav500%0.00−5.00
7th+ in betting100%0.00−1.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m13323.1%−1.50
2m1f – 2m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224125%+0.00
2024300%−3.00
20253266.7%+4.50
2026400%−4.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners5120%−1.00
11-13 runners300%−3.00
5-7 runners3133.3%+0.50
14-16 runners100%−1.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
2-4 runners11100%+3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 9 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 9 horses listed, none arrived from another yard in our archive — all 9 had their first archived run here.
5 have since run for another yard; 4 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
As I Am (IRE) — Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed) Cheltenham · Apr 2014 · Listed
£11,888
As I Am (IRE) — Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed) Newbury · Nov 2013 · Listed
£11,888
Alfie's Sun (GB) — Lime Tree Caravan Park Handicap Chase Stratford · Jul 2009 · Class 3
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,811 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Progeny have won 10% of 489 runs since 2008 (79 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.2% from 191.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 818 · newest first
The latest 50 of 818 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 25 August 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Don Cantillon's strike rate?
Don Cantillon has won 3 of 14 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 21.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 runners, so read the count before the percentage.
Don Cantillon·SR 21.4%·A/E 1.42
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy