Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming: 3.9%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
2.6%−0.8
n=39 · A/E 0.30 · £1 −29.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−3.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
5.6%+2.2
n=18 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −11.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
3.9%+0.5
n=51 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −34.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−3.4
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good going0% vs 3.4% · n=36
When claiming3.9% vs 3.4% · n=51 · A/E 0.54
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle2913.4%−22.00
Flat1815.6%−8.00
Chase1200%−12.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3600%−36.00
Good to Soft1000%−10.00
Soft7114.3%+0.00
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Standard (AW)3133.3%+7.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Perth700%−7.00
Kelso600%−6.00
Hexham4125%+3.00
Sedgefield400%−4.00
Carlisle400%−4.00
Catterick400%−4.00
Cartmel400%−4.00
Redcar300%−3.00
York300%−3.00
Wetherby300%−3.00
Musselburgh200%−2.00
Wolverhampton (AW)2150%+8.00
Ripon200%−2.00
Market Rasen200%−2.00
Thirsk100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 53313%−26.00
Class 61317.7%−3.00
Class 41100%−11.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav1000%0.00−10.00
4th–6th fav19210.5%1.29−2.00
7th+ in betting2700%0.00−27.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m2314.3%−16.00
2m1f – 2m4f1200%−12.00
1m2f – 1m4f900%−9.00
1m – 1m1f500%−5.00
1m5f – 2m400%−4.00
Over 3m400%−4.00
6f – 7f2150%+8.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022300%−3.00
20246116.7%+1.00
20252300%−23.00
20262713.7%−17.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4724.3%−30.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2300%−23.00
5-7 runners1417.1%−7.00
11-13 runners1218.3%−2.00
14-16 runners600%−6.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
2-4 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 39 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00170011000000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,807 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 816.
Court Cave (IRE)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,928 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 934.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,001 runs since 2008 (75 horses).
Hard Spun (USA)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 12.1% of 1,388 runs since 2008 (120 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 8.2% from 147. Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 15.2% from 475.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 59 · newest first
The latest 50 of 59 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 5 February 2022 to 18 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Miss Natasha Cookson's strike rate?
Miss Natasha Cookson has won 2 of 59 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 3.4% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Miss Natasha Cookson in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Miss Natasha Cookson's Fair A/E?
0.41, from 59 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Miss Natasha Cookson·SR 3.4%·A/E 0.41
KTB
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