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Trainer profile

Paul Robson

276 runners in the last 5 seasons · 49 individual horses
As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 130 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)
from 1 Jan 2022
24–276
Wins / Runs
8.7%
Strike rate
n=276
67 (24%)
Placed
1.03
Fair A/E
n=276 · 0.89 incl. margin
−108.87
£1 level stake
n=276 at SP · −39.4%
£271k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3.8%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03).

Deterministic profile computed from 276 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Craig Nichol: 15.5% from 71
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 2.7% (n=37, Fair A/E 0.48). Craig Nichol rides 26% of the entries and beats the yard's average (15.5% vs 8.7%, A/E 1.41) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good going (15.1%, n=93) and in Chase races (14.8%, n=88). The record reads poorly in Flat races — 0% over 31 runners, 8.7pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.5%−3.2
n=73 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −46.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.7
n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00
Debutants · first career start
9.5%+0.8
n=21 · A/E 1.81 · £1 +24.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.7
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.1%+0.4
n=11 · A/E 2.16 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
29.4%
n=17 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −0.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.7%−6.0
n=37 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −29.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Flat races 0% vs 8.7% · n=31
On Good going 15.1% vs 8.7% · n=93
With Craig Nichol 15.5% vs 8.7% · n=71
In Chase races 14.8% vs 8.7% · n=88
With claiming riders up 2.7% vs 8.7% · n=37
Off a 15-30-day break 13.2% vs 8.7% · n=91
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 133 9 6.8% −69.00
Chase 88 13 14.8% −15.87
Flat 31 0 0% −31.00
NH Flat 24 2 8.3% +7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 93 14 15.1% −3.25
Good to Soft 88 4 4.5% −63.67
Soft 67 3 4.5% −49.75
Heavy 13 2 15.4% −3.20
Good to Firm 8 0 0% −8.00
Standard (AW) 7 1 14.3% +19.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kelso 43 4 9.3% −21.20
Hexham 30 3 10% −11.50
Newcastle 29 2 6.9% −1.00
Musselburgh 24 2 8.3% −15.25
Carlisle 19 0 0% −19.00
Ayr 18 2 11.1% −7.75
Perth 17 1 5.9% −8.00
Sedgefield 15 0 0% −15.00
Wetherby 11 1 9.1% −8.00
Uttoxeter 8 1 12.5% +11.00
Bangor-on-Dee 6 2 33.3% +6.50
Catterick 6 0 0% −6.00
Hamilton 6 0 0% −6.00
Newcastle (AW) 6 0 0% −6.00
Cartmel 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 117 7 6% −58.00
Class 5 105 13 12.4% −16.42
Class 6 23 0 0% −23.00
Class 3 20 2 10% −15.95
Class 2 8 2 25% +7.50
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 21 5 23.8% 0.79 −4.20
2nd–3rd fav 43 9 20.9% 1.17 +0.83
4th–6th fav 90 10 11.1% 1.54 +16.50
7th+ in betting 122 0 0% 0.00 −122.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
81% completed · 221 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 88 85.2% 1 0 12 0 0
Hurdle 133 78.2% 0 3 23 2 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Haveyougotmymoney (IRE) 20 2 8 28 Jun 24
Breizh River (FR)then Tristan Davidson 19 3 8 30 Sep 25
Just Don't Know (IRE)from Adam Robson 16 4 10 22 Jan 24
Magic Mike (IRE)from Josh Halley 14 3 6 8 Nov 23
Cannock Park (GB) 13 2 6 13 Jun 26
Okavango Delta (IRE)from Rose Dobbin 13 3 5 12 Jun 26
Diamond Mix (IRE) 12 2 4 19 May 26
Ravenswell (FR)from Ralph J Smith · then Thomas Faulkner 10 0 1 4 Jun 26
Aazza (IRE)from Rose Dobbin 10 2 4 27 Aug 25
Arctic Ambition (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 10 0 1 13 Mar 25
Away She Goes (IRE)from Brian Ellison 9 1 3 28 Nov 25
Freedom Day (IRE)from Mark Walford 9 0 0 16 Jun 25
All 49 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 49 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Rose Dobbin (5) and Adam Robson (2); 21 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for Ewan Whillans (3) and Stuart Coltherd (2); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1956201960001590
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderCraig Nichol
26% of all rides
15.5% SR · A/E 1.41
RiderRWSR£1
Craig Nichol 71 11 15.5% −2.00
Ryan Mania 65 4 6.2% −18.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→
25
Archived wins
£277k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 8 wins
Breizh River (FR) — Ray & Anita Green Chasing 500 Winners Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Kelso · Oct 2024 · Class 2
£20,812
Just Don't Know (IRE) — Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap Chase Ayr · Mar 2023 · Class 3
£12,338
Cannock Park (GB) — mallardjewellers.com Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Nov 2023 · Class 2
£10,562
Notable horses
Just Don't Know (IRE) Breizh River (FR) Magic Mike (IRE) Okavango Delta (IRE) Haveyougotmymoney (IRE) Cannock Park (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Ol' Man River (IRE) 10% · 2–20
Progeny have won 7.3% of 506 runs since 2008 (57 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 10.8% from 102. Weakest on Good going: 4.1% from 171.
Stormy River (FR) 15.8% · 3–19
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,223 runs since 2008 (253 horses).
Kalanisi (IRE) 25% · 4–16
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,742 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Doyen (IRE) 21.4% · 3–14
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,349 runs since 2008 (605 horses).
Cannock Chase (USA) 15.4% · 2–13
Progeny have won 7.5% of 307 runs since 2008 (33 horses).
Mahler (GB) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,836 runs since 2008 (784 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 288 · newest first

The latest 50 of 288 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 March 2020 to 13 June 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
13 Jun 26 Hexham Cannock Park (GB)J: Callum Bewley Lisa Bond Celebration Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 20f · Good · 8 ran RR 66/1
12 Jun 26 Market Rasen Okavango Delta (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Bob And Babs Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 22/1
04 Jun 26 Hamilton Ravenswell (FR)J: Billy Garritty Hampton By Hilton Hamilton Park HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good · 11 ran 8th 9/1
02 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) Mr Withington (FR)J: Aiden Brookes Living North Christmas Fair HandicapClass 6 · 12.5f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 22/1
24 May 26 Kelso Terino (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Ladies Day Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran PU 66/1
24 May 26 Kelso Mr Withington (FR)J: Callum Bewley Ladies Day Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 7th 80/1
21 May 26 Musselburgh Ravenswell (FR)J: Miss Natasha Cookson Watch On Racing TV Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 5th 10/1
19 May 26 Hexham Diamond Mix (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Port Of Blyth Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 5/1
17 May 26 Stratford Okavango Delta (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Ladies Day On Sunday 19th July Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran PU 7/1
14 Mar 26 Newcastle Orestina (GB)J: Ryan Mania Guinness At The Canny Lad Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 10th 12/1
14 Mar 26 Newcastle Diamond Mix (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Guinness At The Hawk Ponteland Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 2/1
14 Mar 26 Newcastle Flaming Norman (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Guinness Draught Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 66/1
06 Mar 26 Ayr King Horse (FR)J: Ryan Mania Book The Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Soft · 6 ran PU 13/2
03 Mar 26 Newcastle Moonlight Trail (GB)J: Lilly Pinchin Border Minstrel Sunday Lunch Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 9th 50/1
03 Mar 26 Newcastle Tiggerelli (GB)J: Callum Bewley Border Minstrel Sunday Lunch Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 6th 66/1
21 Feb 26 Newcastle Sparky Tom (GB)J: Ryan Mania Costello's Cleaning Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 10th 40/1
21 Feb 26 Newcastle Flaming Norman (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 11th 40/1
17 Feb 26 Market Rasen Le Breton (FR)J: Ryan Mania Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 9/2
15 Feb 26 Musselburgh King Horse (FR)J: Ryan Mania Time For Heroes Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20.5f · Soft · 6 ran 2nd 10/1
09 Feb 26 Catterick Athair Mor (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Soft · 7 ran 2nd 11/4J

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Robson's strike rate?
Paul Robson has won 24 of 276 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.7% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Robson do best at?
Hexham by strike rate: 3 wins from 30 runners (10%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Robson?
Craig Nichol, with 71 runners since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (15.5%).
What is Paul Robson's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 276 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 21 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).