Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 30 times a season, winning on 19% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.88). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 27% off breaks of two months or more (33 runs). Rides mostly for Gordon Elliott — 77% of rides in the window.
Deterministic profile computed from 147 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 27.3%31.8% when favouriteGordon Elliott: 21.2% from 113Rides the favourite in 30% of races
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 27.3% (n=33, Fair A/E 1.35), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.1% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.34). Gordon Elliott supplies 77% of the rides and edges the rider's average (21.2% vs 19%, A/E 0.89). The rider also reads well on Soft going (24%, n=75). 26 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2019, £75,491).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 19% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
13.3%−5.7
n=90 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −47.38
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
12.5%−6.5
n=16 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −12.33
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
27.3%+8.3
n=33 · A/E 1.35 · £1 +5.11
When favourite
31.8%
n=44 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −15.83
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.1%−13.9
n=39 · A/E 0.34 · £1 −32.47
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
10.5%−8.5
n=19 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −5.33
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 19% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On first rides for the horse13.3% vs 19% · n=90
On Soft going24% vs 19% · n=75
With debutants13.7% vs 19% · n=51
With Gordon Elliott21.2% vs 19% · n=113
Off a 31-60-day break16.1% vs 19% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
NH Flat962020.8%−26.50
Flat26519.2%−14.93
Chase1815.6%−16.09
Hurdle7228.6%+4.20
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft751824%−11.66
Good to Soft26415.4%−13.63
Heavy25624%−7.03
Good1800%−18.00
Standard (AW)300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown24312.5%−17.84
Fairyhouse16425%+2.79
Naas11436.4%+1.20
Down Royal9333.3%+1.62
Leopardstown9222.2%+3.00
Cheltenham800%−8.00
Clonmel8225%−1.47
Thurles7228.6%−3.95
Navan7342.9%+1.88
Listowel600%−6.00
Cork6116.7%−2.50
Limerick5120%−3.33
Gowran Park400%−4.00
Galway3133.3%−0.80
Downpatrick300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 119210.5%−5.33
Class 2500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite511631.4%0.86−16.58
2nd–3rd fav59915.3%0.86−27.24
4th–6th fav30310%1.24−2.50
7th+ in betting700%0.00−7.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m1032019.4%−41.13
2m1f – 2m4f26726.9%+3.90
Over 3m1119.1%−9.09
2m5f – 3m500%−5.00
6f – 7f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221091816.5%−53.00
2023381026.3%−0.32
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1300%−13.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners441125%−8.80
11-13 runners41614.6%−12.29
5-7 runners22940.9%+1.24
14-16 runners2015%−15.67
17+ runners1915.3%−16.80
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 109 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
62226178···0116027
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
278
Archived wins
26
Pattern / graded wins
£4.07m
Prize money
2021
Best season · 40 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Le Breuil (FR) — National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase (Grade 2) Cheltenham · Mar 2019 · Grade 2
£75,491
Ravenhill (IRE) — National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase (Grade 2) Cheltenham · Mar 2020 · Grade 2
£74,306
Colreevy (IRE) — Racing Post App Champion I.N.H. Flat Race For The Conyngham Cup (Grade 1) Punchestown · May 2019 · Grade 1
Progeny have won 13.3% of 6,983 runs since 2008 (697 horses).
Martaline (GB)11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,345 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.
Milan (GB)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,860 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,122 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,622 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,622 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 20 May 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr J J Codd's strike rate?
Mr J J Codd has won 28 of 147 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 19% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Mr J J Codd ride most for?
Gordon Elliott, with 113 rides since 2022 — 77% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (21.2%).
What is Mr J J Codd's Fair A/E?
0.88, from 147 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr J J Codd·SR 19%·A/E 0.88
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy