Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.12). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 9% off breaks of two months or more (33 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 134 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 9.1%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 9.1% (n=33, Fair A/E 2.93), but runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 0% (n=95, Fair A/E 0.00). The yard also reads well in Flat races (7.1%, n=70). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 0% over 44 runners, 3.7pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.1%+5.4
n=33 · A/E 2.93 · £1 −0.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
5%+1.3
n=20 · A/E 2.65 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.7
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−3.7
n=95 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −95.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up0% vs 3.7% · n=95
In Flat races7.1% vs 3.7% · n=70
In Hurdle races0% vs 3.7% · n=44
Over 1m – 1m1f5.9% vs 3.7% · n=34
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat7057.1%−13.00
Hurdle4400%−44.00
Chase1200%−12.00
NH Flat800%−8.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft4212.4%−36.50
Good3712.7%−18.00
Heavy2000%−20.00
Standard (AW)18316.7%+14.50
Good to Soft1300%−13.00
Good to Firm400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)16212.5%+9.00
Curragh1218.3%+7.00
Gowran Park1100%−11.00
Naas1100%−11.00
Limerick1000%−10.00
Punchestown1000%−10.00
Ballinrobe7114.3%−1.50
Downpatrick600%−6.00
Clonmel500%−5.00
Roscommon400%−4.00
Sligo400%−4.00
Navan400%−4.00
Wexford400%−4.00
Tramore400%−4.00
Listowel300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 52150%+5.50
Class 1100%−1.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav300%0.00−3.00
4th–6th fav21314.3%1.82+0.00
7th+ in betting10621.9%1.12−70.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f3425.9%−9.50
1m5f – 2m2500%−25.00
1m2f – 1m4f2100%−21.00
2m1f – 2m4f2000%−20.00
2m5f – 3m1600%−16.00
6f – 7f800%−8.00
Under 6f7342.9%+25.50
Over 3m300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221900%−19.00
20233912.6%−20.00
202431412.9%+7.00
20252000%−20.00
20262500%−25.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7256.9%−15.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4700%−47.00
11-13 runners2827.1%−3.00
17+ runners2813.6%−9.00
8-10 runners2500%−25.00
5-7 runners6233.3%+7.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 35 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 35 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gearoid Patrick Brouder (4) and Mrs John Harrington (2); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.
12 have since run for another yard, most often for Michael Mulvany (3) and Adrian Sexton (2); 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000130055000130
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 10% of 3,472 runs since 2008 (414 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.4% from 293. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.3% from 353.
Progeny have won 6.4% of 483 runs since 2008 (72 horses).
Epaulette (AUS)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 9.1% of 3,066 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4% from 173. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 222.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 981 · newest first
The latest 50 of 981 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 January 2005 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Peter McCreery's strike rate?
Peter McCreery has won 5 of 134 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.7% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Peter McCreery in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Peter McCreery's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 134 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Peter McCreery·SR 3.7%·A/E 1.12
KTB
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