What is Patrick Cowley's strike rate?

Patrick Cowley has won 57 of 533 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Patrick Cowley do best at?

Southwell by strike rate: 8 wins from 70 rides (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Patrick Cowley ride most for?

L J Morgan, with 128 rides since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (18%).

What is Patrick Cowley's Fair A/E?

1.10, from 533 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Patrick Cowley

533 rides in the lifetime window · 232 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Oct 2023 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

57–533

Wins / Runs

10.7%

Strike rate

n=533

130 (24%)

Placed

1.10

Fair A/E

n=533 · 0.96 incl. margin

−146.33

£1 level stake

n=533 at SP · −27.5%

£485k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

20%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 36% (53 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 533 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 43.6% when favourite L J Morgan: 18% from 128 LTO winners: 35.8% Claiming: 11.1% Rides the favourite in 7% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 35.8% (n=53, Fair A/E 1.67), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 2.2% (n=90, Fair A/E 0.46). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 9.1% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.18 and +9.88 to a £1 stake over 121 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. L J Morgan supplies 24% of the rides and beats the rider's average (18% vs 10.7%, A/E 1.64) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Chase races (16.4%, n=140). Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

9.1%−1.6

n=232 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −53.37

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

35.8%+25.1

n=53 · A/E 1.67 · £1 +19.46

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

9.1%−1.6

n=121 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +9.88

When favourite

43.6%

n=39 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +9.92

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.1%+0.4

n=497 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −115.66

Big fields · 14+ runners

2.2%−8.5

n=90 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −76.67

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.7

n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 35.8% vs 10.7% · n=53

With L J Morgan 18% vs 10.7% · n=128

With Sophie Leech 3.3% vs 10.7% · n=60

In Chase races 16.4% vs 10.7% · n=140

With Martin Keighley 5.8% vs 10.7% · n=69

With C&D winners 15.5% vs 10.7% · n=58

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 357 31 8.7% −199.58

Chase 140 23 16.4% +71.75

NH Flat 36 3 8.3% −18.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 249 24 9.6% −52.84

Soft 106 14 13.2% −26.60

Good to Soft 101 11 10.9% −24.55

Heavy 44 5 11.4% −24.74

Good to Firm 30 3 10% −14.60

Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell 70 8 11.4% −31.17

Market Rasen 35 3 8.6% −23.50

Huntingdon 35 3 8.6% +21.00

Worcester 30 3 10% +50.00

Newton Abbot 26 5 19.2% +2.75

Uttoxeter 26 3 11.5% −11.30

Ludlow 21 1 4.8% −14.50

Stratford 20 0 0% −20.00

Chepstow 18 1 5.6% −11.50

Taunton 17 1 5.9% −15.60

Cheltenham 15 0 0% −15.00

Wincanton 15 1 6.7% −10.00

Exeter 14 2 14.3% +4.50

Fakenham 14 4 28.6% −5.31

Warwick 14 2 14.3% +4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 250 22 8.8% −69.48

Class 5 160 21 13.1% −18.61

Class 3 90 11 12.2% −42.74

Class 2 18 3 16.7% −0.50

Class 1 12 0 0% −12.00

Class 6 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 48 19 39.6% 1.35 +7.92

2nd–3rd fav 112 21 18.8% 1.11 −16.75

4th–6th fav 172 15 8.7% 1.14 −18.50

7th+ in betting 201 2 1% 0.36 −119.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.5% completed · 497 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 140 80% 4 5 18 0 1

Hurdle 357 89.1% 3 4 30 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Ulis De Vassy (FR) 15 3 4 3 Dec 18

Torrent Des Mottes (FR) 11 2 3 22 Dec 20

Skipping On (IRE) 11 4 7 9 Dec 20

Dun Scaith (IRE) 9 1 3 24 Jul 17

Manor Park (GB) 8 3 3 27 Oct 21

Star Trouper (IRE) 8 0 2 7 Jul 17

Join The Clan (IRE) 8 2 3 17 Mar 16

Samtara (GB) 7 0 4 11 May 22

Misty Bloom (IRE) 7 1 5 30 Dec 18

Flemcara (IRE) 7 3 3 8 Dec 18

Balibour (FR) 7 0 3 7 Nov 18

Charging Point (GB) 6 1 4 2 Apr 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 232 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

17152089141009994

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardL J Morgan

24% of all rides
18% SR · A/E 1.64

TrainerRWSR£1

L J Morgan 128 23 18% +48.96

Emma Lavelle 76 8 10.5% −32.60

Jonjo O'Neill 70 9 12.9% −22.37

Martin Keighley 69 4 5.8% −47.68

Sophie Leech 60 2 3.3% −48.75

Brian Barr 58 4 6.9% −35.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→

Archived wins

£485k

Prize money

2018

Best season · 19 wins

Whistleinthedark (IRE) — Phil Nelson River Tay Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Perth · Apr 2023 · Class 2

£13,008

Whistleinthedark (IRE) — Virgin Bet Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Kempton · Mar 2023 · Class 3

£11,951

Join The Clan (IRE) — Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (series Qualifier) Warwick · Jan 2015 · Class 2

£11,574

Notable horses

Skipping On (IRE) Whistleinthedark (IRE) Ascendant (GB) Ulis De Vassy (FR) Manor Park (GB) Flemcara (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Westerner (GB) 20.7% · 6–29

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,873 runs since 2009 (946 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Kayf Tara (GB) 5.6% · 1–18

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,770 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Milan (GB) 17.6% · 3–17

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,892 runs since 2008 (1,465 horses).

Midnight Legend (GB) 18.8% · 3–16

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Voix Du Nord (FR) 20% · 3–15

Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,009 runs since 2010 (167 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.1% from 497. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.7% from 339.

Getaway (GER) 0% · 0–14

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,040 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 533 · newest first

The latest 50 of 533 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 5 November 2013 to 27 October 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Oct 23 Cheltenham Elham Valley (FR)T: John Cornwall Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16.5f · Good · 18 ran 13th 125/1

03 Oct 23 Southwell Elham Valley (FR)T: John Cornwall Weatherbysshop.Co.Uk Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 4th 33/1

06 Aug 23 Market Rasen Seemingly So (IRE)T: L J Morgan Gardiner Hill Foundation Enriching Lives Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 14/1

06 Aug 23 Market Rasen Moo Moo's Milan (GB)T: L J Morgan Steve Bennett Architectural Design Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 100/1

20 Jul 23 Worcester Captain Ivan (IRE)T: L J Morgan eventmasters.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 4th 16/5

09 Jul 23 Market Rasen Sehayli (IRE)T: L J Morgan John Matthews Memorial Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 12 ran PU 50/1

05 Jul 23 Worcester Il Cima (FR)T: L J Morgan Get Pulling With PJ Nicholls Ssangyong Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 6th 150/1

26 Jun 23 Southwell Supreme Yeats (IRE)T: L J Morgan Prestige Safety Services Ppe And Workwear Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 10/1

26 Jun 23 Southwell Il Cima (FR)T: L J Morgan Prestige Safety Fire Risk Assessments Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 6th 100/1

24 Jun 23 Perth Captain Ivan (IRE)T: L J Morgan Visit raceday-ready.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 1st 11/4

23 Jun 23 Market Rasen Tardree (IRE)T: L J Morgan ABP 'Summer Plate Trial' Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 21.5f · Good · 9 ran 6th 18/1

12 Jun 23 Southwell Here We Have It (IRE)T: L J Morgan Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 9 ran 7th 40/1

12 Jun 23 Southwell Captain Ivan (IRE)T: L J Morgan Download Fitzdares For Free Race Streaming Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 1st 7/1

06 Jun 23 Southwell Tommouse (IRE)T: L J Morgan Starsports.Bet 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 9/1

01 Jun 23 Market Rasen Tardree (IRE)T: L J Morgan Blockfree Services Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 20.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 11/1

24 May 23 Southwell Here We Have It (IRE)T: L J Morgan Download Fitzdares For Free Race Streaming Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 7/1

12 May 23 Market Rasen Tommouse (IRE)T: L J Morgan BDN Construction Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 15/2

06 May 23 Hexham Fancy Foundations (GB)T: L J Morgan Sky Sports Racing Selling HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran PU 9/2

28 Apr 23 Perth Fire Away (IRE)T: L J Morgan Edinburgh Gin Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 24f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 18/1

27 Apr 23 Perth Whistleinthedark (IRE)T: L J Morgan Phil Nelson River Tay Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 1st EvensF

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick Cowley's strike rate?: Patrick Cowley has won 57 of 533 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick Cowley do best at?: Southwell by strike rate: 8 wins from 70 rides (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Patrick Cowley ride most for?: L J Morgan, with 128 rides since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (18%).
What is Patrick Cowley's Fair A/E?: 1.10, from 533 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.