What is Paula Muir's strike rate?

Paula Muir has won 31 of 350 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paula Muir do best at?

Ayr by strike rate: 4 wins from 37 rides (10.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Paula Muir ride most for?

Wilf Storey, with 78 rides since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (14.1%).

What is Paula Muir's Fair A/E?

1.22, from 348 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paula Muir

350 rides in the last 5 seasons · 110 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 94 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2014→)

from 1 Jan 2022

31–350

Wins / Runs

8.9%

Strike rate

n=350

78 (22%)

Placed

1.22

Fair A/E

n=348 · 1.03 incl. margin

−51.57

£1 level stake

n=350 at SP · −14.7%

£232k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 70 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.22). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 18% (34 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 350 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May Wilf Storey: 14.1% from 78 LTO winners: 17.6% Claiming: 9.7%

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17.6% (n=34, Fair A/E 1.35), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 1.1% (n=93, Fair A/E 0.24). Wilf Storey supplies 22% of the rides and beats the rider's average (14.1% vs 8.9%, A/E 1.96) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (14.3%, n=49). The standout partner of the record: The Armed Man (GB) — 10 wins from 47 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

1.1%−7.8

n=93 · A/E 0.24 · £1 −84.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

17.6%+8.7

n=34 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −0.75

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2%−6.9

n=51 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −43.00

When favourite

15.4%

n=13 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −7.07

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.7%+0.8

n=310 · A/E 1.31 · £1 −18.57

Big fields · 14+ runners

2.3%−6.6

n=43 · A/E 0.45 · £1 −17.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.9

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On first rides for the horse 1.1% vs 8.9% · n=93

On last-time-out winners 17.6% vs 8.9% · n=34

With Wilf Storey 14.1% vs 8.9% · n=78

With Alan Brown 14.6% vs 8.9% · n=48

On Good to Firm going 14.3% vs 8.9% · n=49

With C&D winners 12.5% vs 8.9% · n=80

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 157 10 6.4% −40.80

Good 70 8 11.4% +13.23

Good to Firm 49 7 14.3% +9.25

Good to Soft 36 3 8.3% −11.00

Soft 32 3 9.4% −16.25

Heavy 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 104 7 6.7% −42.30

Ayr 37 4 10.8% +14.00

Southwell (AW) 30 2 6.7% −16.50

Redcar 28 2 7.1% +1.75

Carlisle 22 4 18.2% +12.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 20 1 5% +21.00

Catterick 19 3 15.8% +3.50

Musselburgh 15 2 13.3% −4.27

Hamilton 12 1 8.3% −3.00

Thirsk 12 1 8.3% −6.00

Ripon 10 0 0% −10.00

Pontefract 8 0 0% −8.00

Wetherby 6 1 16.7% −2.25

Doncaster 6 0 0% −6.00

Nottingham 5 2 40% +4.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 244 25 10.2% +4.18

Class 5 78 6 7.7% −27.75

Class 4 22 0 0% −22.00

Class 3 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 17 3 17.6% 0.76 −7.07

2nd–3rd fav 51 11 21.6% 1.34 +9.00

4th–6th fav 110 13 11.8% 1.57 +19.50

7th+ in betting 172 4 2.3% 0.81 −73.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Blackcurrent (GB) 27 4 10 22 Oct 24

Shifter (GB) 26 4 7 19 Jul 26

Prince Hector (IRE) 21 1 6 9 Dec 24

Going Underground (GB) 19 1 4 9 Jul 25

Masham Moor (GB) 17 2 9 7 Nov 24

Idyllic (GB) 11 2 3 10 Aug 26

Edgewater Drive (IRE) 9 3 3 29 Oct 25

Maui Breeze (GB) 7 0 1 4 Jul 26

Somewhere Secret (GB) 7 1 3 15 Sep 22

Jems Bond (GB) 6 2 3 9 Dec 23

Madam Arkati (GB) 6 0 0 29 Apr 23

Velma (GB) 6 2 3 19 Apr 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 110 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

5241113219543605

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardWilf Storey

22% of all rides
14.1% SR · A/E 1.96

TrainerRWSR£1

Wilf Storey 78 11 14.1% +41.25

Alan Brown 48 7 14.6% +5.20

Chris Fairhurst 42 5 11.9% −5.75

Rebecca Menzies 39 4 10.3% −8.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2014→

Archived wins

£752k

Prize money

2018

Best season · 22 wins

Lord Belvedere (GB) — Smarkets Haydock Park Ladies' Trophy Handicap (Pro-Am Lady Riders' Race) Haydock · Aug 2018 · Class 3

£12,938

Dark Intention (IRE) — Innospec Handicap Chester · Sep 2018 · Class 3

£10,583

Framley Garth (IRE) — Coopers Marquees Apprentice Handicap York · Jun 2018 · Class 4

£9,962

Notable horses

The Armed Man (GB) Blackcurrent (GB) Framley Garth (IRE) Shifter (GB) The Resdev Way (GB) Masham Moor (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kuroshio (AUS) 14.8% · 4–27

Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,313 runs since 2018 (120 horses). Weakest on Good going: 3.8% from 288.

Muhaarar (GB) 15.4% · 4–26

Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,835 runs since 2019 (415 horses).

Camacho (GB) 4% · 1–25

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,326 runs since 2009 (596 horses).

Bated Breath (GB) 10% · 2–20

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,180 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 857.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,241 runs since 2014 (1,110 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 961.

Music Master (GB) 10.5% · 2–19

Progeny have won 6.4% of 233 runs since 2019 (17 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,223 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,223 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 April 2014 to 10 August 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Aug 26 Ayr Idyllic (GB)T: Wilf Storey Ladbrokes 'Free Rewards With Instant Spins' Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 5/1

25 Jul 26 Newcastle (AW) Idyllic (GB)T: Wilf Storey John Duncan Brack Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 10th 14/1

19 Jul 26 Redcar Shifter (GB)T: Wilf Storey Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Handicap StakesClass 6 · 9f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 9/2

06 Jul 26 Ayr Shifter (GB)T: Wilf Storey racingtv.com/freetrial HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 5th 3/1F

05 Jul 26 Ayr Shifter (GB)T: Wilf Storey Glasgow Fair Family Raceday 20 July HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 4/1

05 Jul 26 Ayr Idyllic (GB)T: Wilf Storey Now Ayrshire Radio Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 4th 33/1

04 Jul 26 Carlisle Maui Breeze (GB)T: Wilf Storey Caledonia Park Designer Dash Handicap (For Pro-Am Female Jockeys)Class 5 · 6f · Good · 9 ran 9th 18/1

19 Jun 26 Ayr Shifter (GB)T: Wilf Storey Au Signature HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 13/2

25 May 26 Redcar Shifter (GB)T: Wilf Storey Racing Again Tomorrow On Racing TV HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 4th 6/1

20 May 26 Ayr Maui Breeze (GB)T: Wilf Storey Birra Poretti Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 7th 40/1

05 May 26 Ayr Shifter (GB)T: Wilf Storey Luxury Breaks At Western House Hotel HandicapClass 6 · 9f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 5th 9/1

15 Feb 26 Newcastle (AW) My Kurkum (GB)T: R K Watson Bet 10 Get 40 With BetMGM Classified Stakes (Rider Restricted Race)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 22/1

04 Feb 26 Newcastle (AW) Maui Breeze (GB)T: Wilf Storey Bet 10 Get 40 With BetMGM Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 25/1

20 Jan 26 Newcastle (AW) Maui Breeze (GB)T: Wilf Storey Midnite A Next Generation Betting App HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 50/1

10 Jan 26 Newcastle (AW) Maui Breeze (GB)T: Wilf Storey Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 14/1

09 Jan 26 Newcastle (AW) Shifter (GB)T: Wilf Storey Midnite A Next Generation Betting App HandicapClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 28/1

01 Jan 26 Newcastle (AW) Shifter (GB)T: Wilf Storey Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 80/1

29 Dec 25 Newcastle (AW) Maui Breeze (GB)T: Wilf Storey Win 250,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 80/1

19 Dec 25 Newcastle (AW) Shifter (GB)T: Wilf Storey Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 100/1

19 Dec 25 Newcastle (AW) Maui Breeze (GB)T: Wilf Storey Make The Move To Midnite Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paula Muir's strike rate?: Paula Muir has won 31 of 350 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paula Muir do best at?: Ayr by strike rate: 4 wins from 37 rides (10.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paula Muir ride most for?: Wilf Storey, with 78 rides since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (14.1%).
What is Paula Muir's Fair A/E?: 1.22, from 348 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.