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Jockey profile

Shane B Kelly

324 rides in the last 5 seasons · 177 individual horses
As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 26 days ago 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)
from 1 Jan 2022
14–324
Wins / Runs
4.3%
Strike rate
n=324
58 (18%)
Placed
0.65
Fair A/E
n=324 · 0.53 incl. margin
−156.05
£1 level stake
n=324 at SP · −48.2%
£425k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11.1%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.65). Rides mostly for J P Murtagh — 69% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 324 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 11 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance J P Murtagh: 4.9% from 224
The read

The record is strongest at Dundalk (AW) (7.3%, n=96), clear of the rider's 4.3% baseline. The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 3.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.66 and −82.30 to a £1 stake over 166 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. J P Murtagh supplies 69% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (4.9%, A/E 0.63). The rider also reads well on Standard (AW) going (7.3%, n=96). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 0% over 74 rides, 4.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 6f – 7f: Fair A/E 0.51 across 120 rides (3.3% strike, −47.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap at Curragh (Jul 2023, £59,000).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
3.6%−0.7
n=166 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −82.30
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
23.1%+18.8
n=13 · A/E 2.32 · £1 +2.25
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
3.3%−1.0
n=61 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −48.00
When favourite
13.3%
n=15 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −7.75
Big fields · 14+ runners
3.7%−0.6
n=161 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −98.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.3
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Soft going 0% vs 4.3% · n=74
At Dundalk (AW) 7.3% vs 4.3% · n=96
On Standard (AW) going 7.3% vs 4.3% · n=96
Over 1m – 1m1f 5.8% vs 4.3% · n=104 · A/E 0.82
Off a 31-60-day break 5.6% vs 4.3% · n=54 · A/E 0.66
Over 6f – 7f 3.3% vs 4.3% · n=120 · A/E 0.51
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 101 4 4% −46.50
Standard (AW) 96 7 7.3% −52.55
Soft 74 0 0% −74.00
Good to Soft 24 1 4.2% −16.00
Heavy 23 2 8.7% +39.00
Good to Firm 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 96 7 7.3% −52.55
Curragh 54 2 3.7% −38.00
Gowran Park 24 1 4.2% −11.00
Leopardstown 23 0 0% −23.00
Cork 19 1 5.3% +2.00
Navan 16 0 0% −16.00
Limerick 13 1 7.7% +16.00
Naas 13 0 0% −13.00
Down Royal 11 0 0% −11.00
Galway 10 0 0% −10.00
Fairyhouse 9 1 11.1% −4.50
Listowel 7 0 0% −7.00
Tramore 6 0 0% −6.00
Killarney 5 0 0% −5.00
Tipperary 5 1 20% +36.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 25 0 0% −25.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 18 2 11.1% 0.45 −10.75
2nd–3rd fav 47 5 10.6% 0.71 −16.80
4th–6th fav 83 4 4.8% 0.66 −35.50
7th+ in betting 176 3 1.7% 0.77 −93.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Final Voyage (IRE) 7 1 1 20 Dec 24
Baile Locha Riach (FR) 7 0 0 20 Jul 23
Master Dunraven (IRE) 6 0 0 17 Aug 24
Blues Emperor (IRE) 6 1 2 30 Jul 24
Gurkha Girl (IRE) 6 0 1 2 Feb 24
Queen Leila (GB) 5 1 1 25 Sep 26
Akecheta (IRE) 5 1 4 3 Oct 24
Soi Dao (IRE) 5 0 0 19 Jul 23
Malacanne (IRE) 5 2 2 15 Feb 23
Esquiline (FR) 4 0 1 22 Jun 24
Angels Wrath (IRE) 4 0 1 29 Jul 23
Even Flow (IRE) 4 0 0 1 Jun 23
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 177 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
7194564500050
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardJ P Murtagh
69% of all rides
4.9% SR · A/E 0.63
TrainerRWSR£1
J P Murtagh 224 11 4.9% −114.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→
113
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£1.44m
Prize money
2011
Best season · 21 wins
Blues Emperor (IRE) — Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Jul 2023
£59,000
Red Kelly (FR) — BoyleSports Ulster Derby (Premier Handicap) Down Royal · Jul 2020
£44,250
Fiesolana (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund 'Habitat' Handicap Curragh · May 2013
£30,000
Notable horses
Solar Spirit (IRE) Pearl Warrior (GB) Al Furat (USA) Kyzer Chief (GB) Carrytheone (GB) Red Kelly (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Siyouni (FR) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 13% of 8,372 runs since 2014 (980 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 460.
Fast Company (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,603 runs since 2014 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.
Dark Angel (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,954 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Gleneagles (IRE) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 11.4% of 4,579 runs since 2019 (447 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 284.
Kingman (GB) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 14.5% of 7,533 runs since 2018 (779 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 8.9% from 123.
Lope De Vega (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,237 runs since 2014 (1,110 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 961.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,629 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,629 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 16 August 2009 to 16 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Violet Be Humble (IRE)T: Sean Davis James Crowe 1 Year Memorial Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 40/1
10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) True Sovereign (USA)T: Aidan O'Brien Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Soft · 18 ran 14th 20/1
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Prada's World (IRE)T: Noel C. Kelly BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div II)8.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 4th 11/2
25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Queen Leila (GB)T: Noel C. Kelly Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 50/1
11 Jul 26 Limerick Zheleznaya Dama (USA)T: Brendan W Duke DAR Golf And Mann Family Handicap (0-60)6.5f · Good · 14 ran 5th 12/1
23 Apr 26 Dundalk (AW) Queen Leila (GB)T: Noel C Kelly New Saddle Bar At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60)8f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 12/1
28 Mar 26 Curragh Giselles Defence (IRE)T: Sean Davis Cavalor Equine Nutrition Handicap7f · Soft To Heavy · 23 ran 23rd 100/1
13 Mar 26 Dundalk (AW) Queen Leila (GB)T: Noel C Kelly Happy St Patrick's Weekend Handicap (0-60)6f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 7/1
27 Feb 26 Dundalk (AW) Queen Leila (GB)T: Noel C Kelly Dundalk Winter Series Leading Trainer & Jockey Championship Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 7/1
03 Dec 25 Dundalk (AW) Giselles Defence (IRE)T: Sean Davis Dundalk Stadium Gift Vouchers Available Online Handicap10.5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 50/1
03 Dec 25 Dundalk (AW) Queen Leila (GB)T: Noel C Kelly Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap8f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 50/1
02 Nov 25 Curragh Eternal Spirit (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Guinness 0.0 Finale Stakes (Listed)12f · Heavy · 15 ran 13th 50/1
29 Oct 25 Dundalk (AW) Take A Bow (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Irishinjuredjockeys.com Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 10/1
27 Oct 25 Galway Cosmetic (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden8.5f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 7th 12/1
18 Oct 25 Leopardstown Port Of Spain (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Mongey Communications Eyrefield Stakes (Group 3)9f · Yielding · 8 ran 3rd 12/1
11 Oct 25 Naas Anightaway (IRE)T: Sean Davis Lily & Wild Maiden8f · Yielding · 16 ran 10th 300/1
27 Sep 25 Curragh Anightaway (IRE)T: Sean Davis Fitzpatrick's Mercedes-Benz Maiden (Div 2)10f · Yielding To Soft · 15 ran 13th 150/1
06 Sep 25 Navan Anightaway (IRE)T: Sean Davis Lynn Lodge Stud Maiden10f · Good · 18 ran 16th 125/1
16 Aug 25 Curragh Purring Along (IRE)T: P G Fahey Robbie Dolan Melbourne Cup Winner Handicap8f · Good · 21 ran 7th 14/1
10 Jan 25 Dundalk (AW) Bloom Vega (IRE)T: J P Murtagh Racing Every Week At Dundalk Maiden10.5f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Shane B Kelly's strike rate?
Shane B Kelly has won 14 of 324 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Shane B Kelly do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 96 rides (7.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Shane B Kelly ride most for?
J P Murtagh, with 224 rides since 2022 — 69% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (4.9%).
What is Shane B Kelly's Fair A/E?
0.65, from 324 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 11 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).