Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). With a claiming rider up the record reads 8% (36 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 157 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 8.3%
The read
The yard also reads well over 6f – 7f (9.7%, n=93). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 0% over 31 runners, 6.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.30 across 56 runners (1.8% strike, −52.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−6.4
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.4
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.4
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
25%+18.6
n=8 · A/E 2.98 · £1 +11.50
When favourite
33.3%
n=6 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −0.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.3%+1.9
n=36 · A/E 1.55 · £1 −12.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Grace McEntee13.9% vs 6.4% · n=36
With a new jockey booking1.3% vs 6.4% · n=78
Over 1m – 1m1f0% vs 6.4% · n=31
On Good going1.8% vs 6.4% · n=56
Over 6f – 7f9.7% vs 6.4% · n=93
Off a 15-30-day break8.3% vs 6.4% · n=60 · A/E 1.20
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good5611.8%−52.00
Standard (AW)2400%−24.00
Good to Firm23521.7%+26.25
Soft2229.1%−8.00
Heavy1715.9%−7.00
Good to Soft1516.7%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork27311.1%−2.50
Curragh1915.3%−10.00
Naas1200%−12.00
Dundalk (AW)1000%−10.00
Yarmouth8112.5%+15.00
Wolverhampton (AW)700%−7.00
Navan700%−7.00
Newmarket7228.6%+8.00
Tipperary500%−5.00
Kempton (AW)500%−5.00
Killarney500%−5.00
Listowel400%−4.00
Galway4125%+6.00
Gowran Park400%−4.00
Leicester4125%−0.25
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 621314.3%+7.75
Class 41218.3%−8.00
Class 51119.1%+0.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite10330%1.21+0.75
2nd–3rd fav1815.6%0.49−14.00
4th–6th fav38513.2%1.67+24.50
7th+ in betting9111.1%0.39−81.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f9399.7%−15.25
1m – 1m1f3100%−31.00
Under 6f2613.8%−16.50
1m2f – 1m4f700%−7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022300%−3.00
20234924.1%−35.00
20245735.3%−27.50
202648510.4%−4.25
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps13296.8%−67.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners4337%−18.75
14-16 runners3837.9%−13.00
17+ runners3612.8%−27.00
8-10 runners3213.1%−28.00
5-7 runners7228.6%+18.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 17 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque (2) and Rod Millman (2); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard, most often for Thomas Coyle (2); 11 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0000954176700
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,471 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.1% from 959. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,744 runs since 2008 (261 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.5% from 116. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.1% from 213.
Progeny have won 7.9% of 1,214 runs since 2008 (112 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.4% from 161.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 157 · newest first
The latest 50 of 157 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 October 2022 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Micky Fenton's strike rate?
Micky Fenton has won 10 of 157 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.4% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Micky Fenton in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Micky Fenton's Fair A/E?
0.99, from 156 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Micky Fenton·SR 6.4%·A/E 0.99
KTB
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