What is Thomas Dowson's strike rate?

Thomas Dowson has won 147 of 1,733 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Thomas Dowson do best at?

Hexham by strike rate: 34 wins from 273 rides (12.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Thomas Dowson ride most for?

Philip Kirby, with 734 rides since 2008 — 42% of the total. That pairing has won 72 (9.8%).

What is Thomas Dowson's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 1,729 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Thomas Dowson

1,733 rides in the lifetime window · 537 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jun 2024 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2014→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

147–1,733

Wins / Runs

8.5%

Strike rate

n=1,733

399 (23%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=1,729 · 0.93 incl. margin

−598.88

£1 level stake

n=1,733 at SP · −34.6%

£1.46m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 90 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). In Group and Graded company the record reads 14% (35 runs). Rides mostly for Philip Kirby — 42% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,733 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 34.4% when favourite Philip Kirby: 9.8% from 734 LTO winners: 14% Claiming: 8.8% Group/Graded: 14.3% Rides the favourite in 5% of races

The read

It is weakest at Southwell (2.1% over 47 rides) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads well at 14.3% (n=35, Fair A/E 1.65), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.2% (n=166, Fair A/E 0.86). The market has consistently overbet rides on last-time-out winners: 14% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −44.49 to a £1 stake over 136 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Philip Kirby supplies 42% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.8%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (19.5%, n=77). 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the MansionBet At Doncaster Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares' Chase at Doncaster (Dec 2019, £42,285). The standout partner of the record: Beyondtemptation (GB) — 9 wins from 31 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.7%−1.8

n=537 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −287.08

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14%+5.5

n=136 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −44.49

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

4.9%−3.6

n=349 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −179.46

When favourite

34.4%

n=93 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −8.62

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

8.8%+0.3

n=811 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −257.96

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.2%−4.3

n=166 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −128.49

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

14.3%+5.8

n=35 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +9.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 18.1% vs 8.5% · n=166

Off a 0-7-day break 19.5% vs 8.5% · n=77

On last-time-out winners 14% vs 8.5% · n=136

With first-time headgear 2% vs 8.5% · n=50

At Southwell 2.1% vs 8.5% · n=47

At Carlisle 3.2% vs 8.5% · n=93

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,113 99 8.9% −305.77

Chase 478 42 8.8% −192.98

NH Flat 142 6 4.2% −100.13

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 687 54 7.9% −241.99

Soft 431 34 7.9% −168.46

Good to Soft 395 34 8.6% −193.01

Heavy 188 23 12.2% +20.58

Good to Firm 23 2 8.7% −7.00

Standard (AW) 9 0 0% −9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Hexham 273 34 12.5% −30.73

Sedgefield 235 26 11.1% −26.09

Wetherby 138 12 8.7% −71.79

Newcastle 132 15 11.4% −33.17

Perth 125 6 4.8% −91.25

Kelso 109 8 7.3% −49.67

Carlisle 93 3 3.2% −63.50

Catterick 84 7 8.3% −47.37

Ayr 80 5 6.3% −44.68

Market Rasen 74 5 6.8% −31.00

Musselburgh 59 3 5.1% −33.50

Doncaster 58 7 12.1% −9.75

Cartmel 55 4 7.3% −17.00

Southwell 47 1 2.1% −18.00

Uttoxeter 34 2 5.9% −13.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 834 69 8.3% −278.87

Class 5 600 49 8.2% −231.65

Class 3 167 21 12.6% −22.11

Class 2 52 2 3.8% −41.50

Class 1 40 5 12.5% +4.25

Class 6 39 1 2.6% −28.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 116 35 30.2% 1.00 −19.79

2nd–3rd fav 276 53 19.2% 1.20 −18.59

4th–6th fav 596 48 8.1% 1.22 −16.50

7th+ in betting 745 11 1.5% 0.55 −544.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

80.7% completed · 1,591 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 478 77% 24 15 71 0 0

Hurdle 1,113 82.3% 26 18 151 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Beyondtemptation (GB) 31 9 15 21 May 19

Beyondtheflame (GB) 23 0 0 3 Mar 20

Duhallowcountry (IRE) 20 1 5 1 Jun 18

Malangen (IRE) 19 2 5 6 Jul 23

Gin Cobbler (GB) 19 4 4 23 Nov 18

Little Bruce (IRE) 18 5 8 6 Feb 21

King Of The Dark (IRE) 17 1 4 19 Apr 17

Mrs Grass (GB) 16 2 6 10 Nov 17

Top Ville Ben (IRE) 15 2 7 14 Apr 23

Hidden Cargo (IRE) 15 2 5 28 Mar 23

Bushypark (IRE) 14 5 6 15 Apr 23

Niven (IRE) 14 1 4 27 Nov 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 537 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

99138894766811

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPhilip Kirby

42% of all rides
9.8% SR · A/E 1.01

TrainerRWSR£1

Philip Kirby 734 72 9.8% −210.97

Victor Thompson 180 14 7.8% −59.88

Jonathan Haynes 122 13 10.7% −13.12

Maurice Barnes 105 8 7.6% −43.50

Kenny Johnson 63 2 3.2% −30.00

Harriet Graham 58 4 6.9% −21.17

Lisa Harrison 55 3 5.5% −34.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2014→

147

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.46m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 28 wins

Lady Buttons (GB) — MansionBet At Doncaster Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares' Chase (Listed) Doncaster · Dec 2019 · Listed

£42,285

Lady Buttons (GB) — olbg.com Yorkshire Rose Mares' Hurdle (Grade 2) Doncaster · Jan 2019 · Grade 2

£28,475

Top Ville Ben (IRE) — 888Sport Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Wetherby · Dec 2019 · Grade 3

£25,628

Notable horses

Beyondtemptation (GB) Little Bruce (IRE) Bushypark (IRE) Gin Cobbler (GB) Fingal's Hill (IRE) Wemyss Point (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beneficial (GB) 13.5% · 14–104

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,047 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

And Beyond (IRE) 12.2% · 11–90

Progeny have won 7.8% of 807 runs since 2008 (79 horses).

Yeats (IRE) 14% · 6–43

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,857 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Mahler (GB) 5.6% · 2–36

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,894 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Black Sam Bellamy (IRE) 2.9% · 1–34

Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,688 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.

Sixties Icon (GB) 6.3% · 2–32

Progeny have won 10% of 5,685 runs since 2012 (338 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.4% from 1,338.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,733 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,733 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 17 September 2014 to 15 June 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

15 Jun 24 Hexham Ribeye (GB)T: Peter Atkinson Cleansweep Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 13 ran F 16/5F

07 Jun 24 Market Rasen Ribeye (GB)T: Peter Atkinson Linear By Symphony Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 11/1

01 Jun 24 Hexham Zwicky (GB)T: Philip Kirby Hexham Legend 'Event Of Sivola' Memorial Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 6 ran UR 3/1

01 Jun 24 Hexham Snookered (IRE)T: Hugh Burns Susan & Neve's Special Birthday Celebration Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Heavy · 9 ran 6th 80/1

18 May 24 Uttoxeter Magical Arthur (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Debbie Kent Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 8th 28/1

11 May 24 Hexham Snookered (IRE)T: Hugh Burns Paxtons For Milwaukee Power Tools. Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 11 ran PU 100/1

11 May 24 Hexham Zwicky (GB)T: Philip Kirby Mick Walsh Open Ditch Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 9/2

10 May 24 Sedgefield Gandhi Maker (FR)T: Philip Kirby AK Bets Big Prices Big Limits Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Good · 9 ran PU 7/2F

10 May 24 Sedgefield Rathgearan (IRE)T: Chris Grant Download The AK Bets App Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 11th 50/1

08 May 24 Kelso Telemetry (GB)T: Philip Kirby Howden Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good · 13 ran 10th 18/1

07 May 24 Southwell Devon Skies (GB)T: Philip Kirby Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Mares' Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 10th 125/1

04 May 24 Hexham Powers Dilemma (IRE)T: Lizzie Quinlan Bobby Roberts Memorial Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 14/1

23 Apr 24 Southwell Tommy Time (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Read Harry Cobden's Blog At PlanetSportBet Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 12 ran F 7/2J

23 Apr 24 Southwell Sholokhova (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Download The PlanetSportBet App Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 11 ran PU 150/1

22 Apr 24 Hexham Gandhi Maker (FR)T: Philip Kirby Jim Scallan Retirement Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 15.5f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 9/1

20 Apr 24 Ayr Special Rate (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Cpms Novices' Champion Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 25/1

18 Apr 24 Cheltenham Devon Skies (GB)T: Philip Kirby Join Racing TV Now Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 17f · Good · 18 ran 15th 125/1

15 Apr 24 Kelso Zwicky (GB)T: Philip Kirby Go North Cab On Target Final Handicap Hurdle (Series Final) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 21f · Soft · 16 ran 9th 18/1

07 Apr 24 Carlisle Innovated (IRE)T: Lizzie Quinlan Mark Nield Wealth Management Go North Monet's Garden Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Heavy · 11 ran PU 80/1

07 Apr 24 Carlisle Powers Dilemma (IRE)T: Lizzie Quinlan Pauline Phizacklea Memorial Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Heavy · 5 ran 2nd 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Thomas Dowson's strike rate?: Thomas Dowson has won 147 of 1,733 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Thomas Dowson do best at?: Hexham by strike rate: 34 wins from 273 rides (12.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Thomas Dowson ride most for?: Philip Kirby, with 734 rides since 2008 — 42% of the total. That pairing has won 72 (9.8%).
What is Thomas Dowson's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 1,729 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.