What is Toby Atkinson's strike rate?

Toby Atkinson has won 46 of 733 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Toby Atkinson do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 55 rides (7.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Toby Atkinson ride most for?

Michael Wigham, with 78 rides since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (11.5%).

What is Toby Atkinson's Fair A/E?

0.75, from 730 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Toby Atkinson

733 rides in the lifetime window · 416 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Aug 2015 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

46–733

Wins / Runs

6.3%

Strike rate

n=733

149 (20%)

Placed

0.75

Fair A/E

n=730 · 0.64 incl. margin

−283.84

£1 level stake

n=733 at SP · −38.7%

£227k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 90 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.75). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (72 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 733 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Dec–Feb 23.9% when favourite Michael Wigham: 11.5% from 78 First rides: 7.2% LTO winners: 15.3% Rode the favourite in 6% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.3% (n=72, Fair A/E 0.90), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.4% (n=83, Fair A/E 0.36). The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 5.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −280.59 to a £1 stake over 649 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Michael Wigham supplied 11% of the rides and beats the rider's average (11.5% vs 6.3%, A/E 1.03) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (13.1%, n=84). The record read poorly on Good to Soft going — 0% over 32 rides, 6.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a 61-180-day break: Fair A/E 0.27 across 55 rides (1.8% strike, −46.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. Seasonally, the rider fired Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.2%+0.9

n=416 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −107.59

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.3%+9.0

n=72 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −11.22

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.4%−3.9

n=83 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −53.00

When favourite

23.9%

n=46 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −9.84

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

5.7%−0.6

n=649 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −280.59

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.7%−0.6

n=122 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −11.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−6.3

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 15.3% vs 6.3% · n=72

Off a 0-7-day break 13.1% vs 6.3% · n=84

With Michael Wigham 11.5% vs 6.3% · n=78

On Good to Soft going 0% vs 6.3% · n=32

With Noel Quinlan 0% vs 6.3% · n=32

Off a 61-180-day break 1.8% vs 6.3% · n=55

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 390 25 6.4% −135.62

Good to Firm 160 8 5% −92.50

Good 98 10 10.2% −30.22

Soft 40 2 5% +15.00

Good to Soft 32 0 0% −32.00

Firm 7 1 14.3% −2.50

Heavy 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 130 8 6.2% −35.87

Kempton (AW) 111 7 6.3% −42.50

Lingfield (AW) 86 6 7% −37.75

Southwell (AW) 55 4 7.3% −11.50

Yarmouth 52 3 5.8% −42.00

Newmarket 35 2 5.7% −18.25

Leicester 29 3 10.3% +17.53

Nottingham 25 4 16% +24.00

Brighton 22 1 4.5% −16.50

Beverley 17 0 0% −17.00

Doncaster 15 0 0% −15.00

Lingfield 12 1 8.3% −7.50

Haydock 11 0 0% −11.00

Folkestone 10 0 0% −10.00

Warwick 10 0 0% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 333 18 5.4% −206.62

Class 5 273 22 8.1% −1.97

Class 4 73 4 5.5% −39.75

Class 3 28 1 3.6% −17.00

Class 7 13 1 7.7% −5.50

Class 2 12 0 0% −12.00

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 53 11 20.8% 0.78 −16.84

2nd–3rd fav 115 13 11.3% 0.76 −37.50

4th–6th fav 256 16 6.3% 0.82 −71.50

7th+ in betting 309 6 1.9% 0.59 −158.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Thoughtsofstardom (GB) 12 0 2 21 Dec 10

King's Icon (IRE) 12 1 5 22 Jan 10

Resentful Angel (GB) 11 2 7 26 Feb 11

Strike Force (GB) 10 0 3 12 Sep 13

Tyrsal (IRE) 9 0 0 14 Aug 15

Fire In Babylon (IRE) 8 0 1 5 Jan 15

Ooi Long (GB) 8 1 3 23 Oct 12

Stagecoach Emerald (GB) 8 1 1 10 Nov 10

Credit Swap (GB) 8 3 5 6 May 10

Aaranyow (IRE) 7 2 2 22 Jul 15

Lytham (IRE) 7 1 4 2 Jun 10

Powerful Pierre (GB) 6 0 0 12 Jan 15

The 60 most-raced of 416 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

118692510633612

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMichael Wigham

11% of all rides
11.5% SR · A/E 1.03

TrainerRWSR£1

Michael Wigham 78 9 11.5% +21.63

Marco Botti 70 6 8.6% −15.97

Pat Eddery 35 3 8.6% −15.50

Mark Rimmer 33 1 3% −27.50

Noel Quinlan 32 0 0% −32.00

Michael Appleby 30 1 3.3% −25.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

Archived wins

£230k

Prize money

2009

Best season · 18 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Mezzotint (IRE) — Nanpanton Handicap Leicester · Sep 2013 · Class 3

£7,763

Credit Swap (GB) — Nationwide Accident Repair Services Handicap (Str) Ascot · Jul 2009 · Class 4

£6,476

Credit Swap (GB) — Gardner Mechanical Services Handicap (Str) Newbury · Jul 2009 · Class 4

£5,828

Notable horses

Credit Swap (GB) Resentful Angel (GB) Aaranyow (IRE) Bavarica (GB) Erinjay (IRE) King's Icon (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dansili (GB) 10.5% · 2–19

Progeny have won 13.7% of 11,841 runs since 2008 (983 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 428. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.1% from 209.

Diktat (GB) 16.7% · 3–18

Progeny have won 8.2% of 4,931 runs since 2008 (337 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.4% from 431. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 156.

Mind Games (GB) 5.9% · 1–17

Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,234 runs since 2008 (80 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.5% from 104.

Spectrum (IRE) 12.5% · 2–16

Progeny have won 7.7% of 1,553 runs since 2008 (110 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.2% from 259.

Compton Place (GB) 13.3% · 2–15

Progeny have won 8.5% of 8,347 runs since 2008 (515 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.5% from 165.

Montjeu (IRE) 0% · 0–15

Progeny have won 12.3% of 7,971 runs since 2008 (665 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.3% from 686.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 737 · newest first

The latest 50 of 737 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 June 2007 to 14 August 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

14 Aug 15 Newmarket Tyrsal (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Amp Air Conditioning HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good · 13 ran 5th 10/1

11 Aug 15 Lingfield (AW) Pass The Moon (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer Avensys Fillies' NurseryClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 12/1

07 Aug 15 Newmarket Tyrsal (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Buffaload Logistics More Load Less Cost HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 20/1

29 Jul 15 Sandown Tyrsal (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Unibet Distances Betting Every Race Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 4th 33/1

22 Jul 15 Lingfield (AW) Aaranyow (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Stunning New Kazam Tornado 348 HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 16/1

06 Jul 15 Windsor Tyrsal (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Daily Unibet Early Prices From 9am Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 6th 25/1

01 Jul 15 Kempton (AW) Tyrsal (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Irish Night 08.07.15 Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 5th 16/1

27 Jun 15 Lingfield Aaranyow (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Cgg HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 7th 8/1

26 Jun 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Prince Ballygowen (GB)T: Clifford Lines 'Slade' After Racing Saturday 5th September HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 40/1

24 Jun 15 Kempton (AW) They Seek Him Here (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer 32red/british Stallion Studs Ebf Maiden StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 16/1

20 Jun 15 Newmarket Tyrsal (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Pocket The Watch HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 12th 50/1

19 Jun 15 Newmarket World Record (IRE)T: Mick Quinn Sarah Morris And Joe Breen Memorial Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 13th 20/1

11 Jun 15 Nottingham Prince Ballygowen (GB)T: Clifford Lines 1st Security HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 9th 50/1

01 Jun 15 Leicester Tyrsal (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Join In The Fun At facebook.com/attheraces HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 9th 20/1

01 Jun 15 Leicester Prince Ballygowen (GB)T: Clifford Lines Follow AtTheRaces On Twitter Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 10th 25/1

27 May 15 Thirsk Spirit Of Sound (FR)T: Hugo Palmer Racing UK Anywhere Available Now Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 3/1

19 May 15 Newcastle Spirit Of Sound (FR)T: Hugo Palmer Pin Point Recruitment Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 9/2

11 May 15 Windsor Peace Prize (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer Bet Now On The Ladbrokes App HandicapClass 5 · 11.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 10/1

08 May 15 Nottingham Tyrsal (IRE)T: Clifford Lines Odds On Favourite DG Taxis 01159500500 HandicapClass 4 · 8.5f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 33/1

08 May 15 Nottingham Dancing Maite (GB)T: Roy Bowring Racing Uk Profits Returned To Racing Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 9th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Toby Atkinson's strike rate?: Toby Atkinson has won 46 of 733 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Toby Atkinson do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 55 rides (7.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Toby Atkinson ride most for?: Michael Wigham, with 78 rides since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (11.5%).
What is Toby Atkinson's Fair A/E?: 0.75, from 730 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.